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Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
Having random thoughts while off for the holidays and waiting for our MME.

Right now, with the tax credit, a similarly trimmed out MME is competitive with the MY with advantages/disadvantage for each. But I suspect that many of us would already be in a MY without the $7,500.

My guess is that Ford will likely run out of the federal tax credits (200K vehicles) between 2022-3.

In order to stay competitive, Ford needs to significantly reduce the cost, improve the specs, and the charging network by that time IMO.

So the highest trim variant of the MME announced to date is the GT Performance. My guess is that the 2023 GT Performance needs to have a 300+ mile range at $45-50K with a much better charging network to remain competitive.

My reasoning? In 2 years, the MY will probably go through a range increase at a flat or reduced price (competition is wonderful). They will likely have the quality issues sorted by then as well.

Now taking the price down ~$10-15k is not going to happen via reducing touchscreen, headliner... costs or production efficiencies. It'll have to be a different battery chemistry.

Ford basically has 2 years. I'm sure they're still smarting from the $3,000 price cut forced by Tesla's pricing move. It's only going to get tougher. But I do think Ford will be there.

There are other factors as well.

What impact does the upcoming Escape PHEV have on the Federal credit?

While a lot needs to happen, particularly in the regulatory side, if Tesla can actually roll out FSD by 2023, They will have a big hammer. I think this is unlikely but Ford/Mobileye needs to make enough progress so they are near par with Tesla. On the flip side.. if FSD isn't available widely by 2023, those who paid $3-10K going back to 2018 just might begin to wonder WTF.

Oddly enough.. someone spotted a MX with a LiDar recently.

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Wow, many, many random thoughts.

With the Tax Credit, Ford has only about 70k vehicles left out of the 200k. Ford may very well exhaust the allocation in 2021, but definitely early 2022. hopefully the Biden Administration will extend the program. It may not be as high as $7,500, but at least it will be there.

I don’t think the MMe pricing will change much, but I do think Ford will introduce additional offerings at more affordable price-points. There were recent spy-shots of a new BEV Ford Fusion CUV. I assume it will be slower that the Mustang ev, but more efficient and affordable. In don’t know if it is based on the MMe or the MEB, we shall see. (Pictures and link at end)

It will be three years before Solid-state batteries are massed produced, so I don’t know how much range increase we will see until then.

I saw a video on YouTube that was suggesting Tesla is not looking to include LiDAR in future vehicles, but that Tesla may in fact be augmenting their maps with LiDAR data after all. The report is based on a patent filed saying secondary data points taken by alternative tech can be used to assist the AI in making decisions. Its slightly different from MobilEye’s existing patent which, is worded very similarly. Either that, or Elon is concerned that Lucid and Xpeng systems that have LiDAR will whoop his FSD.

New Fusion CUV??
3552

3553

3554


 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
With the Tax Credit, Ford has only about 70k vehicles left out of the 200k. Ford may very well exhaust the allocation in 2021, but definitely early 2022. hopefully the Biden Administration will extend the program. It may not be as high as $7,500, but at least it will be there.

I don’t think the MMe pricing will change much, but I do think Ford will introduce additional offerings at more affordable price-points.
The issue is that any extension of the tax credits, Tesla is also the beneficiary. Once Ford's credits run out, MME pricing becomes VERY unattractive compared to a MY.

Hopefully the MME range will increase via software updates as Ford is able to collect more data and a mid cycle refresh will bring additional cost reductions without feature degrades.

What happens at 200k vehicles. Is purchase and register by a certain date to get the credit or are people taking a risk they might not get the credit as the number approaches 200k?

In any case, I agree that Ford will probably not reduce MSRP after 200k, but cough up additional incentives to be competitive.

The price cut was in response to VWID4 intro not Model Y.
Yes... I agree the September id.4 announcement and reservation opening tipped the scales but I suspect it had been in the works since Tesla's July $3K price decrease.

From a pure pricing standpoint, the MME can't compete with the ID.4. Even after the $3K price reduction, our premium extended range AWD is still ~$6K+ more than the ID.4 pro AWD in the highest trim. The VW gets 3 years of free charging (for some people who are lucky enough to charge day/day on EA that's another several thousand $ in savings over those 3 years).

That said, The ID.4 estimated range at 250 miles is for the RWD versions... better than the MME standard range RWD. VW has not disclosed the range for their AWD versions so it remains to be seen whether they can meet our no-compromise (heat, heated seats, accessories all on and blasting) Winter range requirements. The MME4X at 270 assuming a 40~45% no compromises Winter degrade will work without anxiety. Hard to know without additional VW announcements but the ID.4 Pro AWD at present is not a direct competitor to the MME4X for our case. The MY is.

Ford's $3K price decrease for the Premium indicates to me that it was driven by Tesla and the $1K reduction for the Select by the VW. But VW still has the pricing edge. No question.

Aaaagh. Bad center console design.
Not sure why Ford decided on a landscape orientation after the effort they put all that effort in software development the MME touchscreen.
 

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Just my $.02: Killing time waiting for the bowl games to begin. Nothing more than opinions



Having random thoughts while off for the holidays and waiting for our MME.

Right now, with the tax credit, a similarly trimmed out MME is competitive with the MY with advantages/disadvantage for each. But I suspect that many of us would already be in a MY without the $7,500.
Hardly think so. There are posters already dumping their orders because of the elimination of the $5,000 credit in NJ. Without the $7,500 I would not even consider the MME vs. the Model Y.

My guess is that Ford will likely run out of the federal tax credits (200K vehicles) between 2022-3.

In order to stay competitive, Ford needs to significantly reduce the cost, improve the specs, and the charging network by that time IMO.
Before the MME I believe Ford had about 70,000 tax credits left. By the end of 2021 that will down to about 45/50,000 maybe less as the 2022 model MME will be coming out in the fall of 2021.

My guess is that by the middle of 2022 the tax credits will be used up. Then two quarters of 1/2 credits which would be the end of 2022.

Between now and then I expect further reductions in the sale pride of Model Y.

So yes, Ford has 18 months to figure out how to wring minimum of $10,000 out of the cost of Premium AWD LR. That will not be easy. If the battery cost $18,000 you would have wring out 50% to get a savings of $9,000.

Where are the balances of savings going to come from without reducing content?


So the highest trim variant of the MME announced to date is the GT Performance. My guess is that the 2023 GT Performance needs to have a 300+ mile range at $45-50K with a much better charging network to remain competitive.

My reasoning? In 2 years, the MY will probably go through a range increase at a flat or reduced price (competition is wonderful). They will likely have the quality issues sorted by then as well.

Now taking the price down ~$10-15k is not going to happen via reducing touchscreen, headliner... costs or production efficiencies. It'll have to be a different battery chemistry.

Ford basically has 2 years. I'm sure they're still smarting from the $3,000 price cut forced by Tesla's pricing move. It's only going to get tougher. But I do think Ford will be there.
In three years, 2023 I will be shocked if even the least expensive RWD EV will not have a range of 300 miles. That will be the floor. So the GT better have at least a 300 mile range if not more.

I agree that the price reduction by Tesla, not the VW ID4, is what compelled Ford to reduce their price. I think most people are cross shopping the Model Y, AWD 300 plus miles with the MME Premium AWD LR and not the RWD VW ID4.

If Tesla is truly making $10,000 profit per Model Y, if they want to maintain market share, they still have a lot of "fat" in the price of the Model Y so I as posted above, I expect further price reductions and range increases in the Model Y.


There are other factors as well.

What impact does the upcoming Escape PHEV have on the Federal credit?

While a lot needs to happen, particularly in the regulatory side, if Tesla can actually roll out FSD by 2023, They will have a big hammer. I think this is unlikely but Ford/Mobileye needs to make enough progress so they are near par with Tesla. On the flip side.. if FSD isn't available widely by 2023, those who paid $3-10K going back to 2018 just might begin to wonder WTF.
Is FSD really going to the mega game changer that Tesla is predicting?

Are people in the real world, going to pay $10,000 for FSD?

I for one certainly am not going to. On my present car and with the MME co-pilot 360 I have more than enough. Right now in city traffic my cars have no capability, nor can they drive off and on ramps. That feature is not worth $10,000 to me. Nor am I about ready to put a $50,000 Tesla into robo taxi fleet to pick and drop strangers over pot holed streets. There will be heavy wear and tear on a Tesla in a robo fleet and frankly I do not need the money from a robo fleet.

With regard to OTA: what exactly other than increasing the range do people really expect to happen? Mechanical parts that wear out are not affected by OTA. Making it easier to find a radio station, updating maps and charging stations, giving us more configuration of the dash, but beyond that what exactly are we thinking the OTA updates are actually going to do that will dramatically change our MME?
 

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Discussion Starter · #7 ·
Is FSD really going to the mega game changer that Tesla is predicting?

Are people in the real world, going to pay $10,000 for FSD?
I think FSD by 2023 with the laws/regulations sorted is highly unlikely. But FSD provides Tesla with a big pricing hammer hammer. It's SW. They are paying the fixed costs of development. There is basically zero variable cost. They can turn it on to entice buyers. The 3 month of FSD free trial I'm sure nudged s few buyers off the fence.

Look at what did with rear heated seats... OTA upgrade for $300. Now BMW is following with OTA upgrades as well. A whole new world..... I wonder if 10 years from now there'll be a community of hackers who "root" their cars and enable all of these features.
 

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ID.4 Pro AWD at present is not a direct competitor to the MME4X for our case.
I’d guess the VWID4 is a direct competitor for the MachE for many people’s situations.

I think most people looking at VW and Ford EV’s are probably not looking at Teslas or are coming from Teslas.

Be interesting to see the breakout on new to EV buyers vs. people coming from other EV/PHEV’s for all the mfgs.
 

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I’d guess the VWID4 is a direct competitor for the MachE for many people’s situations.

I think most people looking at VW and Ford EV’s are probably not looking at Teslas or are coming from Teslas.

Be interesting to see the breakout on new to EV buyers vs. people coming from other EV/PHEV’s for all the mfgs.
I have looked at the MY. Many others on this Forum as well. Almost no one is comparing the VW ID4 with either the MY or the MME.

IMO, the equivalent to the MY and the MME, is the Audi Q4 eTron - not the VW ID4.

Cars have "pecking orders" and price points. There are two classic examples of this:

  • The VW Phaeton is a classic example: It was a great car that fell flat on its face. People who could afford it, just paid a few thousand dollars more and bought and/or leased the Audi A8. They did not want to spend $50,000 on a VW regardless of how well it was built.
  • Genesis, made by Hyundai, is another example. Great car but no one buys it. People who can afford a BMW, Mercedes are not interested in a Hyundai.
When I went to see the MME at my dealer, nearly everyone there was over 50 and most were over 60. To them the name Mustang was nostalgia. Will the Mustang name resonate with younger people those that are looking at Tesla? . My personal opinion, based on my speaking to my children, ages 38 and 42 and my nephew, 43 who drives a WRX is no. When I mentioned Mustang, they said: "Oh that's was your first car in college".

But mention Tesla and they think it is "cool" and for their father to drive a Tesla, that too would be cool.

Personally I am extremely curious to see if there will be sell threw on a $50,000 Ford.

Time will tell.
 

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I have looked at the MY. Many others on this Forum as well. Almost no one is comparing the VW ID4 with either the MY or the MME.

IMO, the equivalent to the MY and the MME, is the Audi Q4 eTron - not the VW ID4.

Cars have "pecking orders" and price points. There are two classic examples of this:

  • The VW Phaeton is a classic example: It was a great car that fell flat on its face. People who could afford it, just paid a few thousand dollars more and bought and/or leased the Audi A8. They did not want to spend $50,000 on a VW regardless of how well it was built.
  • Genesis, made by Hyundai, is another example. Great car but no one buys it. People who can afford a BMW, Mercedes are not interested in a Hyundai.
When I went to see the MME at my dealer, nearly everyone there was over 50 and most were over 60. To them the name Mustang was nostalgia. Will the Mustang name resonate with younger people those that are looking at Tesla? . My personal opinion, based on my speaking to my children, ages 38 and 42 and my nephew, 43 who drives a WRX is no. When I mentioned Mustang, they said: "Oh that's was your first car in college".

But mention Tesla and they think it is "cool" and for their father to drive a Tesla, that too would be cool.

Personally I am extremely curious to see if there will be sell threw on a $50,000 Ford.

Time will tell.
Hard to say. That's why be nice to have some solid demographics on what cars MachE depositors were looking to purchase vs. MachE.
 

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Discussion Starter · #11 ·
Do they compete? Some trim levels and stats below..
  • MME Select RWD Standard Range: 230 mile range, 266HP, 5.8s 0-60, ~$43K
  • VW ID.4 pro RWD: 250 mile range, 201 HP, ??s 0-60 (rumored to be in the 8s range), ~$40K (lowest trim) ~$46K (highest trim)
  • MME Premium AWD Extended Range: 270 mile range, 346HP, 4.8s 0-60, ~$55K
  • VW ID.4 pro AWD: ?? range (220-230?), 302 HP, ??s 0-60, ~$44K (lowest trim) ~$50K (highest trim)
For the "car guys" no... they're willing to pay the premium for the MME. Tesla performance is better but the MME is close. The ID.4 is not in the same church.
For the "need transportation guys"... no... they'll go with the VW.

Most of the car buying public though are probably going to be VW people. I do know some Dieselgate owners who've sworn off VWs.

The good news here is that EV selection is improving. I think the VW does have some advantages aside from the lower cost (roof rack, tow hitch, and ski pass through...). The big loser? Chevrolet Bolt.
 

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Random MMe thoughts are all over the place. My quarantine-itis is starting to flare up as my thoughts are bouncing around my head.
The price cut was in response to VWID4 intro not Model Y.
I believe it was in response to both, plus other companies announcing their target-pricing. They need to stay competitive.

Aaaagh. Bad center console design.
Its only partially assembled, but is shows a few areas of concern. The width of the center console impeding drivers leg, the reach to the screens, and only two front air vents?

What happens at 200k vehicles. Is purchase and register by a certain date to get the credit or are people taking a risk they might not get the credit as the number approaches 200k?
You need to be registered before the end of the quarter that 200k sales are made. So, if they hit 200k in May, you need to be registered by June 30.
The six months after that, the credit is cut in half.

So yes, Ford has 18 months to figure out how to wring minimum of $10,000 out of the cost of Premium AWD LR. That will not be easy. If the battery cost $18,000 you would have wring out 50% to get a savings of $9,000.
My prediction based on history: Ford will make more features included in the base, add features and performance to the higher trims, and there will be little change in the MSRP other than a slight drop.
There will be other models to compete at the lower price-points.

Are people in the real world, going to pay $10,000 for FSD?
No one I know would pay $10,000 for it, including some Tesla owners.

One Model Y owner said he would consider ‘renting’ it for a month during a road-trip, he would consider a one-time monthly use charge of $99. But not a subscription.

Look at what did with rear heated seats... OTA upgrade for $300. Now BMW is following with OTA upgrades as well.
My take? Don’t work the price of the heated seats into the car if you are going to charge me to use them. You are in effect charging me twice for the heated seats. This is a static item, like a rear-view mirror or steering wheel. They can go *** themselves. (Sorry, the New Yorker in me came out)

I feel different for connected services, which require constant upkeep and manpower to support. I can understand a reasonable subscription for this.

When I went to see the MME at my dealer, nearly everyone there was over 50 and most were over 60.
I also saw a few married couples with young children. And one single guy in his 30’s. But a lot of 50+, too.
 

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Discussion Starter · #13 ·
I also saw a few married couples with young children. And one single guy in his 30’s. But a lot of 50+, too.
The commonality among the demographic is probably income/affordability. For most Americans, $50-60K is a reach even after the tax credits are factored in.

Although... I'm still trying to figure out the $65K average household income and the #1 selling vehicle F150 thing... Someone explain how that makes any sense.

I guess when times are bad, Americans go into debt and when times are good, they go into more debt.



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The MME price is a stretch for me. I can afford it, that's not a problem at all. But it's also more than twice what I've spent on any prior vehicle.

Mustang Mach-E is what I've ordered... But for the sake of discussion, let's say it hadn't been announced and I wanted to go electric in 2021. Let's also assume that all of these fully electric options were available for sale in my state (sadly, some of them are not sold here):

Bolt
ID.4
Ioniq EV
I-PACE
Kona Electric
Leaf
Models S, X, 3, Y
Niro
Polestar 2
Taycan
XC40 BEV

I'd eliminate Leaf because I live in a hot, dry climate.

I'd eliminate Polestar 2 because there's nowhere nearby to have it serviced.

I'd eliminate I-PACE, Taycan, XC40 simply for being "luxury" brands that demand significantly higher maintenance and service costs. Cutting the Taycan from my list is difficult. I think the Taycan is gorgeous and I'm sure it'd be fun to drive. But I'd hate how much I spent and would continue spending to own it.

I would eliminate Models S, X, 3, and Y due to immoral management, dangerously misleading marketing/branding, lack of quality control, limited/slow/expensive repairability options, and insufficient value for cost.

So that leaves me with this shorter list:

Bolt
ID.4
Ioniq EV
Kona Electric
Niro

There you have it... That's the group that I personally am shopping against Mustang Mach-E.

Now when we come back to Arizona reality, Ioniq, Kona, and Niro BEVs aren't sold here. And I don't love how Bolt looks.

So if there were no Mustang Mach-E, I'd be buying the ID.4 for sure.
 

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I’d guess the VWID4 is a direct competitor for the MachE for many people’s situations.

I think most people looking at VW and Ford EV’s are probably not looking at Teslas or are coming from Teslas.

Be interesting to see the breakout on new to EV buyers vs. people coming from other EV/PHEV’s for all the mfgs.
We are replacing our 2017 Chevy Bolt with a MME FE.
 

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We are replacing our 2017 Chevy Bolt with a MME FE.
It will be interesting to hear from you and all current EV owners trading into a Mustang Mach-E.
Topics like, what does everyone find better/worse living with the MMe as compared to their previous BEV.
 

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The MME price is a stretch for me. I can afford it, that's not a problem at all. But it's also more than twice what I've spent on any prior vehicle.

Mustang Mach-E is what I've ordered... But for the sake of discussion, let's say it hadn't been announced and I wanted to go electric in 2021. Let's also assume that all of these fully electric options were available for sale in my state (sadly, some of them are not sold here):

Bolt
ID.4
Ioniq EV
I-PACE
Kona Electric
Leaf
Models S, X, 3, Y
Niro
Polestar 2
Taycan
XC40 BEV

I'd eliminate Leaf because I live in a hot, dry climate.

I'd eliminate Polestar 2 because there's nowhere nearby to have it serviced.

I'd eliminate I-PACE, Taycan, XC40 simply for being "luxury" brands that demand significantly higher maintenance and service costs. Cutting the Taycan from my list is difficult. I think the Taycan is gorgeous and I'm sure it'd be fun to drive. But I'd hate how much I spent and would continue spending to own it.

I would eliminate Models S, X, 3, and Y due to immoral management, dangerously misleading marketing/branding, lack of quality control, limited/slow/expensive repairability options, and insufficient value for cost.

So that leaves me with this shorter list:

Bolt
ID.4
Ioniq EV
Kona Electric
Niro

There you have it... That's the group that I personally am shopping against Mustang Mach-E.

Now when we come back to Arizona reality, Ioniq, Kona, and Niro BEVs aren't sold here. And I don't love how Bolt looks.

So if there were no Mustang Mach-E, I'd be buying the ID.4 for sure.

I think there may be a contradiction with regard to the Jaguar, Volvo and Porsche:

First a caveat: I drive high end German cars and because of the cost of service out of warranty, I only lease. I get a new car very 3 years and turn in the car with under 30,000 miles.

I do not have experience with owning a car for 7, 10 or 15 years and driving it 100K, 150K or 200K miles as others on this forum have.

With regard to Taycan, IPace and XC 40: you have eliminated them because they are:

"luxury" brands that demand significantly higher maintenance and service costs.

I thought that one of the reasons of getting an EV vs. an ICE was because of the low to zero maintenance costs.

If you are eliminating these cars because of the cost of maintenance, isn't that a contradiction?

Or are you saying that EV's need maintenance and that the cost of maintaining these three will be higher than other EV's. If that is the case, what maintenance are you anticipating on the MME and other EV's? I was under the impression that EV's were virtually maintenance free.

I would reject all three because they are way overpriced: The Porsche Taycan is a wonderful car, but I put a line through any car that costs more than $75,000.

I live in the NYC metro area so I have access to all these cars. I did not know that in Arizona the Ioniq, Kona, and Niro aren't sold there. But they weren't on my list.

I agree with you on the Polestar: no service but you do have Volvo?

What is wrong with the Leaf in Arizona?

Just my $.02
 

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Ford will make more features included in the base, add features and performance to the higher trims, and there will be little change in the MSRP other than a slight drop.
Free three year EA charging, as VW offers, would be a great feature to add to get competitive with VW and Tesla, which offers free charging every now and then as a sales promotion.

Chances of it costing Ford much are slim as few will use it since 90%(?) of EV'ers have home charging.

It addresses the range anxiety that all worry about but few have to deal with on day to day basis.
 

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Discussion Starter · #20 ·
The MME price is a stretch for me. I can afford it, that's not a problem at all. But it's also more than twice what I've spent on any prior vehicle.

Mustang Mach-E is what I've ordered... But for the sake of discussion, let's say it hadn't been announced and I wanted to go electric in 2021. Let's also assume that all of these fully electric options were available for sale in my state (sadly, some of them are not sold here):

Bolt
ID.4
Ioniq EV
I-PACE
Kona Electric
Leaf
Models S, X, 3, Y
Niro
Polestar 2
Taycan
XC40 BEV

I'd eliminate Leaf because I live in a hot, dry climate.

I'd eliminate Polestar 2 because there's nowhere nearby to have it serviced.

I'd eliminate I-PACE, Taycan, XC40 simply for being "luxury" brands that demand significantly higher maintenance and service costs. Cutting the Taycan from my list is difficult. I think the Taycan is gorgeous and I'm sure it'd be fun to drive. But I'd hate how much I spent and would continue spending to own it.

I would eliminate Models S, X, 3, and Y due to immoral management, dangerously misleading marketing/branding, lack of quality control, limited/slow/expensive repairability options, and insufficient value for cost.

So that leaves me with this shorter list:

Bolt
ID.4
Ioniq EV
Kona Electric
Niro

There you have it... That's the group that I personally am shopping against Mustang Mach-E.

Now when we come back to Arizona reality, Ioniq, Kona, and Niro BEVs aren't sold here. And I don't love how Bolt looks.

So if there were no Mustang Mach-E, I'd be buying the ID.4 for sure.
I understand that these decisions are personal but does the driving experience count for anything? To me, it doesn't make sense to compare a Kona/Niro (a derivative of a FWD ICE platform) with the MME or ID.4 (ground up BEV designs with RWD and rear biased AWD). Personally... I don't buy FWD or front biased AWD cars of any variety (ICE, Hybrid, BEV...).
 
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