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Discussion Starter #1
As of June 2019, Ford had only 83,000 $7,500 Federal Tax credits left.

Does anyone know as of June 2020 how many Federal Tax credits Ford has? I have read that with the 50,000 MachE scheduled for model year 2021, Ford's Federal Tax credits will be used up. So if you want to get the $7,500 you need to get the first year of production - and all the problems of first year of production!

Another point: with the $7,500 tax credit, the First Edition, which is comparable to the long-range Tesla Model Y, the MSRP are about the same.

Obviously without the $7,500 Federal Tax credit, the long-range Model Y will cost substantially less.

While some may argue that the Model Y is not a luxury vehicle, I think in all honesty the same can be said about the MachE, yet the Model Y does have the Tesla name and mystic.

Going forward I really wonder if the MachE can command a premium over the Model Y. My gut tells me "No".

Each year each Tesla Model gets better. I think the same will be true for the MachE.

For these reasons and many others, to protect myself financially, I will be "leasing" my First Edition. I realize it is a "hybrid" lease with a balloon at the end so that I get the $7,500 Federal tax credit.
 

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As of June 2019, Ford had only 83,000 $7,500 Federal Tax credits left.

Does anyone know as of June 2020 how many Federal Tax credits Ford has? I have read that with the 50,000 MachE scheduled for model year 2021, Ford's Federal Tax credits will be used up. So if you want to get the $7,500 you need to get the first year of production - and all the problems of first year of production!

Another point: with the $7,500 tax credit, the First Edition, which is comparable to the long-range Tesla Model Y, the MSRP are about the same.

Obviously without the $7,500 Federal Tax credit, the long-range Model Y will cost substantially less.

While some may argue that the Model Y is not a luxury vehicle, I think in all honesty the same can be said about the MachE, yet the Model Y does have the Tesla name and mystic.

Going forward I really wonder if the MachE can command a premium over the Model Y. My gut tells me "No".

Each year each Tesla Model gets better. I think the same will be true for the MachE.

For these reasons and many others, to protect myself financially, I will be "leasing" my First Edition. I realize it is a "hybrid" lease with a balloon at the end so that I get the $7,500 Federal tax credit.
[/QUOTE Last figures on the full $7500 were about 80,000+ units. Keep in mind that those are for vehicles purchased and registered in the USA
 

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Discussion Starter #3
Thanks:

As I understand it the Federal Tax Credit is only for people who purchase a car in the United States and file a United States Tax return. There are therefore two requirements to get the $7,500 Federal Tax credit.

As of June 2019 Ford had less than 84,000 Federal Tax credit lefts. I assume that since June 2019 many of those credits have been used.

The reason for my post was whether anyone had updated information as to what presently remains?

From that figure must be deducted credits for cars sold between now and the end of 2020 when the MachE will become available.

I do not know of the planned 50,000 units first run, what percentage will be going to the United States.

But I suspect this first run of 50,000 will use up the $7,500 Federal Tax Credit.
 

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Thanks:

As I understand it the Federal Tax Credit is only for people who purchase a car in the United States and file a United States Tax return. There are therefore two requirements to get the $7,500 Federal Tax credit.

As of June 2019 Ford had less than 84,000 Federal Tax credit lefts. I assume that since June 2019 many of those credits have been used.

The reason for my post was whether anyone had updated information as to what presently remains?

From that figure must be deducted credits for cars sold between now and the end of 2020 when the MachE will become available.

I do not know of the planned 50,000 units first run, what percentage will be going to the United States.

But I suspect this first run of 50,000 will use up the $7,500 Federal Tax Credit.
It seems logical that the full $7500 figure will go with the initial first year run. A couple of things are in our favor on the 80+ remaining figure: COVID-19 has slowed auto sales and Ford's production of EVs has been a small % of their line. I believe that those with a current reservation are looking good for the full $7500
 

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It seems logical that the full $7500 figure will go with the initial first year run. A couple of things are in our favor on the 80+ remaining figure: COVID-19 has slowed auto sales and Ford's production of EVs has been a small % of their line. I believe that those with a current reservation are looking good for the full $7500
One last item, the $7500 is not a rebate, it gets deducted from what you owe in Federal Income tax so if you owe less than $7500 then you will not get the full amount
 

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This was looked up by a member of the Mach E Forum who found Ford sales at year-end 2019 is 120,795.
IRC 30D – Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit Quarterly Sales | Internal Revenue Service

Then there's the delayed implementation of the phase-out:
"Qualified Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit (IRC 30D) Phase Out
The qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (“phase-out period”). Qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are eligible for 50 percent of the credit if acquired in the first two quarters of the phase-out period and 25 percent of the credit if acquired in the third or fourth quarter of the phase-out period. Vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are not eligible for a credit if acquired after the phase-out period."
 

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This was looked up by a member of the Mach E Forum who found Ford sales at year-end 2019 is 120,795.
IRC 30D – Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit Quarterly Sales | Internal Revenue Service

Then there's the delayed implementation of the phase-out:
"Qualified Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit (IRC 30D) Phase Out
The qualified plug-in electric drive motor vehicle credit phases out for a manufacturer’s vehicles over the one-year period beginning with the second calendar quarter after the calendar quarter in which at least 200,000 qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer have been sold for use in the United States (determined on a cumulative basis for sales after December 31, 2009) (“phase-out period”). Qualifying vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are eligible for 50 percent of the credit if acquired in the first two quarters of the phase-out period and 25 percent of the credit if acquired in the third or fourth quarter of the phase-out period. Vehicles manufactured by that manufacturer are not eligible for a credit if acquired after the phase-out period."
Ford has averaged around 8500 plug in vehicles over 2018 and 2019. Since then they have ceased production of the Fusion and as I stated above COVID-19 has slowed things. I'm managing my expectations but I believe the initial run is safe.
 

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If there are two versions of the Escape only PHEVs qualify so unless there is a rush to buy the plug in version of the Escape it should be close but OK. Have to see what the 2020 numbers look like
 

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Unable to locate 2020 numbers but Ford hasn't broken 10,000 EV & PHEV units per year in several years.
 

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Discussion Starter #11
I realize it is a $7,500 tax credit: If you do not use it in the year you bought the car you lose it: it does not carry forward. If you only owe $5,000 in taxes, you would owe nothing, but you cannot carry over to the next year $2500.

As I posted in a different thread, with the $7,500 credit I will get, as I reserved the First Edition, my net cost will be more or less the same as the long range AWD Tesla Model Y which no longer has a Federal Tax credit.

Clearly without it, the MachE will be about $7,500 more than the Model Y. I do not think the market is there for the MachE to cost more than the Model Y. There is very little optional equipment left that can be added to increase the value of the MachE by $7,500. Therefore in year 2, I expect the MSRP of the MachE will have to be reduced or there will be substantial discounting which goes against the "fixed pricing" model Ford hopes to implement with the MachE.

Bottom line: At $60,000 the MachE is overpriced vs. the AWD long range Tesla Model Y. I think there will be a substantial "hit" to the resale values of the MachE: to protect myself I am leasing.

Finally, as of June 2019, Ford had just under 84,000 units left for sale that qualify for the Federal Tax Credit:

see: Federal EV Tax Credit Phase Out Tracker By Automaker – EVAdoption
 

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Therefore in year 2, I expect the MSRP of the MachE will have to be reduced or there will be substantial discounting which goes against the "fixed pricing" model Ford hopes to implement with the MachE.
FWIW, I'm estimating the $7500 tax credit will still be good for most of the 2022 Mach-e's. too. Ford has almost 80,000 credits left. The only thing counting against it in 2020 is what should be a small handful of Escape and Fusion plug-ins (and whatever Mach-e's make it through). By year-end 2020, they should still have over 90,000 left.

Figure 20,000 2021 MME sales in the US, and maybe another 10,000 Fusion/Escape PHEVs. They should still have 50,000 credits by the end of the 2021 model year (3Q2021). The F-150 EV is due sometime in 2022. MME sales could rise if it proves popular.

I think Mach-e credits should be safe thru 2Q2022.
 

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Discussion Starter #13
From Chasing Carol's post above, as of the end of 2019 Ford had only 80,000 credits left.

see: IRC 30D – Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit Quarterly Sales | Internal Revenue Service

By the end of 2020 that number will be less.

Ford is projecting 50,000 MachE for model year 2021. Are you saying that only 40% , 20,000 units are for the US? I think it will be double that number, 40,000 out of the 50,000. Then there will be Fusion/Escape PHEV's plus a few thousand Lincolns.

So I agree that the MachE should be safe for 2020/2021 and maybe a few thousand for 2022. After that the Federal Tax credit will be gone and unless there is reduction in MSRP, the MachE will not be competitively priced against the Model Y.

Remember the long range AWD Model Y is faster, has slightly more inside room and greater range than the MachE. The MachE has styling going for it, but that is subjective, and the Ford network of dealers. But that hardly justifies a premium of over $7,000 vs. the Model Y.

To protect myself I will be leasing, putting the question of resale value on Ford.








 

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Yes, there were reports that Europe would get 30,000 of the 2021's, leaving less than 20k for the US. Still not entirely sure how correct that is, but it seems plausible since there seems to be just as much push for it in Europe as there is in the US.


If anything, I think I was probably conservative with 2Q2022. Might make it thru 3Q2022, or even YE2022. Depending on when the F-150 EV starts delivering.
 

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Discussion Starter #15
Dear DSSB3233:

Perhaps you are correct.

Just checked and there are over 3,000 Ford dealers in the US. That means on average less than 7 MachE per dealer.

Of course some will get more and others would get less.

But on average it would seem that Ford expects their dealers to make a huge financial commitment to sell on average one car every two months?

I cannot see a dealer making that kind of financial investment, with such a low volume and especially considering that Ford has proposed paying the dealers a fixed commission on each MachE sold as part of their fixed price for the MachE.

I guess we will have to wait and see how this all shakes out.
 

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I think there are about 2000 EV-certified US dealers, which is what it takes to get any. (Meaning 1000 didn't make that commitment.) But you're right that it's still a pretty small allotment on a per-dealer basis in the US. Especially since 1/4 of the reservations were from one state (CA).

But it's also not just a 1-year payout for dealers. They know the future holds an increasing share of EV sales, not just the MME but other future models like the F-150 EV.
 

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From Chasing Carol's post above, as of the end of 2019 Ford had only 80,000 credits left.

see: IRC 30D – Plug-In Electric Drive Motor Vehicle Credit Quarterly Sales | Internal Revenue Service

By the end of 2020 that number will be less.

Ford is projecting 50,000 MachE for model year 2021. Are you saying that only 40% , 20,000 units are for the US? I think it will be double that number, 40,000 out of the 50,000. Then there will be Fusion/Escape PHEV's plus a few thousand Lincolns.
The 50K MME production limit is based on how many batteries they can get from LG chem, so it seems unlikely they will be able to build more than that for the 2021 model year. Europe has adopted BEV's much more than the US, and it is in Ford's best interest to sell as many EV's in Europe as they can to limit the EU penalties for average fleet carbon dioxide output. So yes it is assumed at most Ford will sell 25,000 in the US. Last year Ford averaged 600 EV's a month, and with car sales likely in depressed for months we can assume at most 10,000 to 15,000 EV's in addition to the 25,000 MMEs sold by September 2021. Even if they managed to get more batteries for the 2022 model year, IMHO it is unlikely they will hit 200k limit before jan 1st 2022. Even if they manage to hit the number in the 4th quarter, the $7500 would still be available until it drops to $3850 on April 1st 2022.
 

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Hi everyone. New to the forum here.
Does anyone know whether the federal $7500 tax rebate applies to when the order is confirmed or when the vehicle is delivered to you? For example, let's say the reservation is converted to an "order" sometime in June 2020, but the vehicle isn't delivered until Jan 2021 (I reserved a Select). Would the $7500 tax rebate apply for the tax year of 2020, or 2021?

I know this is probably a better question for a tax advisor but I dont have one, and I couldn't find the details on IRS. Thanks in advance!
 

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Discussion Starter #19 (Edited)
If you read the language with regard to the Federal Tax credits, two words are used interchangeably: purchase and/or sold.

I believe that would indicate the year in which you purchased the car, the year the car was sold, i.e., the year title was transferred - not the year in which the car was ordered.

An order is not binding: it can be canceled and in most states the dealer if a deposit has been taken, must refund the deposit.

For example Tesla's tax credits were running out. If they were available to all who ordered as opposed to those who actually bought there would have been utter chaos.

I did a little research and here is what I found:

The form for the Federal Tax credit for EV is Form 8936. That form requires:

  • You are the owner of the vehicle. If the vehicle is leased, only the lessor and not the lessee, is entitled to the credit.
  • You placed the vehicle in service during your tax year.
  • The vehicle is manufactured primarily for use on public streets, roads, and highways.
  • The original use of the vehicle began with you.
  • You acquired the vehicle for use or to lease to others, and not for resale.
  • You use the vehicle primarily in the United States.
see: Instructions for Form 8936 (2019) | Internal Revenue Service

So it definitely is the tax year you bought the car, not the year you placed the order.
 

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If you read the language with regard to the Federal Tax credits, two words are used interchangeably: purchase and/or sold.

I believe that would indicate the year in which you purchased the car, the year the car was sold, i.e., the year title was transferred - not the year in which the car was ordered.

An order is not binding: it can be canceled and in most states the dealer if a deposit has been taken, must refund the deposit.

For example Tesla's tax credits were running out. If they were available to all who ordered as opposed to those who actually bought there would have been utter chaos.

The form for the Federal Tax credit for EV is Form 8936. That form requires:

  • You are the owner of the vehicle. If the vehicle is leased, only the lessor and not the lessee, is entitled to the credit.
  • You placed the vehicle in service during your tax year.
  • The vehicle is manufactured primarily for use on public streets, roads, and highways.
  • The original use of the vehicle began with you.
  • You acquired the vehicle for use or to lease to others, and not for resale.
  • You use the vehicle primarily in the United States.
see: Instructions for Form 8936 (2019) | Internal Revenue Service
Ah that makes sense! Thanks JTK44!
 
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