[JTL]

Toyota Chief Hitting The Brakes On Electric Vehicles

Toyota's president is sending up flares about migrating to electric vehicles too quickly\.

climatechangedispatch.com

 

[Diogenes]

Multiple articles now on the Toyota chairman's comments. Doubt the people who buy Toyota's really care. The advocacy news outlets can make their claims wrt how forward looking Toyota is but I'm not betting against them. They have engineering prowess and resource that dwarf Rivian, Fisker, Lordstown... Unlike many companies in the West, they can play the long game patiently. I'd be willing to bet they have as many, if not more engineers working on electric platforms than those small guys. They can afford to wait a bit longer and pivot to electrification... my guess is when the battery technology makes the next leap in capacity/cost.

I don't have any skin in the game and I would not buy a modern Toyota as I find them well... boring (A car I would like to drive for bit one day is the AE86 though). That all said, Toyota will be fine.

What would be interesting is how Toyota fares over the next 10 years vs VW as VW does seem "all in" on Electrification. Toyota is huge in the developing world with unreliable electric grids, particularly in Africa.

 

[peugfan]

Toyota is often not on the leading edge of technology. For example, they did not change the Toyota Corolla transmission from 4 spd to 6 spd until after competitors did. That probably works well to keep their reliability good. When I said to a relative I was buying a Ford Mustang Mach E BEV, they said, “but it's a Ford” to which I replied, “that's the point, exciting like a Mustang, not boring like a Toyota” to which they replied, “boring lasts longer”. Boring suits some customers just fine.

 

[machstang]

Toyota often focuses on the now and not so much on the long term. Hence why they've been pushing so hard on hybrids and only recently announced plans to offer a full line of EVs. From a financial perspective this is actually smart, why be in the hole by tens to hundreds of billions for years on end (cough cough... Tesla) before finally turning a profit?

 

[Diogenes]

Don't bet against Toyota. Some "click waiting" here but many points made in this article are spot in.

"Toyota's Solid-State Battery Will Crush Tesla Li-Ion Updates | Torque News" Toyota's Solid-State Battery Will Crush Tesla Li-Ion Updates | Torque News

Sent from my LM-G710 using Tapatalk

 

[JTL]

Don't bet against Toyota. Some "click waiting" here but many points made in this article are spot in.

"Toyota's Solid-State Battery Will Crush Tesla Li-Ion Updates | Torque News" Toyota's Solid-State Battery Will Crush Tesla Li-Ion Updates | Torque News

Sent from my LM-G710 using Tapatalk

I totally agree but would add that SS batteries in general, regardless of the manufacturer will make Li-Ion obsolete for EV use. This is why I personally feel the need to wait a few years for everything to shake out before I purchase an EV. If there was an affordable upgrade path for current EV's to swap out their old tech batteries for SS batteries I would buy today.

Tesla is one if not the most overvalued company on the planet. Their stock is valued at more than Toyota, Honda, VW, Ford, Chrysler and GM combined yet they sold less than 500,000 units in 2019.

 

[Diogenes]

I totally agree but would add that SS batteries in general, regardless of the manufacturer will make Li-Ion obsolete for EV use. This is why I personally feel the need to wait a few years for everything to shake out before I purchase an EV. If there was an affordable upgrade path for current EV's to swap out their old tech batteries for SS batteries I would buy today.

Tesla is one if not the most overvalued company on the planet. Their stock is valued at more than Toyota, Honda, VW, Ford, Chrysler and GM combined yet they sold less than 500,000 units in 2019.

I could totally see Toyota sit out of the BEV rush for a bit, pivot quickly once the battery technology allows them to offer a competitive $25K car that they can make tons of profits with, then go all in.

WRT to TSLA valuation. I agree they are a bit overvalued and due for a correction but not on the basis of the Automobile market. One needs to consider TSLA as a transportation + energy company. Think solar roof, powerwall, bidirectional charging, home HVAC systems (Elon's referred to it). In fact, I would not at all be surprised to see a Tesla heat pump based refrigerator + hot water heater/tank in the future. The potential for that market is HUGE.

 

[JTL]

I could totally see Toyota sit out of the BEV rush for a bit, pivot quickly once the battery technology allows them to offer a competitive $25K car that they can make tons of profits with, then go all in.

WRT to TSLA valuation. I agree they are a bit overvalued and due for a correction but not on the basis of the Automobile market. One needs to consider TSLA as a transportation + energy company. Think solar roof, powerwall, bidirectional charging, home HVAC systems (Elon's referred to it). In fact, I would not at all be surprised to see a Tesla heat pump based refrigerator + hot water heater/tank in the future. The potential for that market is HUGE.

Call Tesla what ever you want but the fundamentals do not support a fraction of their valuation. They have a cult following right now but that won't last, especially if they don't improve their quality and service. JMO.

 

[Diogenes]

Call Tesla what ever you want but the fundamentals do not support a fraction of their valuation. They have a cult following right now but that won't last, especially if they don't improve their quality and service. JMO.

Different discussion but I would argue that valuation via fundamentals is more applicable for established businesses. and not for a growth business. I'm not a TSLA investor but I'll give an example of 2 stocks I have owned for a couple of years now. Both media companies. AT&T and Roku. Roku has lost money the entire time I've owned it (they did turn a profit last quarter) whereas AT&T made money consistently and paid a healthy dividend (~7%). AT&T has far stronger fundamentals but even with the dividend, the returns have been flat. Roku is a 10 bagger.

Was my investment in ROKU just speculation that I got lucky with? Absolutely not... What I was betting on was the future of television moving to streaming. Anyone who was an early adoptee of OTT services saw this one. Sling, Hulu, Youtube TV, etc... It just so happens that COV accelerated this move but it was inevitable.

Investing for growth, dividends are bad news. It's a sign the company is out of ideas to fund for growth and would rather return the profits its shareholders.

What did the fundamentals look like for Apple when Steve Jobs first rejoined the company in 1997 when Michel Dell said they should “shut it down and give the money back to the shareholders.” ?

Getting back on point... I do think TSLA stock price is a bit inflated and due for a correction but based on potential, I could easily see them becoming a Trillion dollar company but not just as a automobile manufacturer.

I have no skin in the game... not a TSLA investor, owner, or fan. I invest to make ME money.

 

[JTL]

Different discussion but I would argue that valuation via fundamentals is more applicable for established businesses. and not for a growth business. I'm not a TSLA investor but I'll give an example of 2 stocks I have owned for a couple of years now. Both media companies. AT&T and Roki. Roku has lost money the entire time I've owned it (they did turn a profit last quarter) whereas AT&T made money consistently and paid a healthy dividend (~7%). AT&T has far stronger fundamentals but even with the dividend, the returns have been flat. Roku is a 10 bagger.

Was my investment in ROKU just speculation that I got lucky with? Absolutely not... What I was betting on was the future of television moving to streaming. Anyone who was an early adoptee of OTT services saw this one. Sling, Hulu, Youtube TV, etc... It just so happens that COV accelerated this move but it was inevitable.

Investing for growth, dividends are bad news. It's a sign the company is out of ideas to fund for growth and would rather return the profits its shareholders.

What did the fundamentals look like for Apple when Steve Jobs first rejoined the company in 1997 when Michel Dell said they should “shut it down and give the money back to the shareholders.” ?

Getting back on point... I do think TSLA stock price is a bit inflated and due for a correction but based on potential, I could easily see them becoming a Trillion dollar company but not just as a automobile manufacturer.

I have no skin in the game... not a TSLA investor, owner or a fan. I invest to make ME money.

Do what works for you but without the help of the Fed who knows with the stock market would look like today. Same could perhaps be said for sales of EV's getting federal and state rebates , although Tesla no longer qualifies that might change. I am not really in favor of government (my tax dollars) subsidizing private industry.

 

[MachDrive]

Call Tesla what ever you want but the fundamentals do not support a fraction of their valuation. They have a cult following right now but that won't last, especially if they don't improve their quality and service. JMO.

Part of the stock price is based on the company’s potential. As long as Tesla shows signs if expansion and growth, they will be overvalued.
However, in the next two years the rest of the industry is coming up fast. Infrastructure growth, solid state batteries, competing FSD tech, and major competition are kicking in the door. Tesla’s lead will drastically reduce and I expect their stock will have a major correction. Be sure to keep your finger on the pulse of the industry.

 

[SolarAB]

They aren't even stocking the Rav4 Prime in Alberta

 

[MachDrive]

They aren't even stocking the Rav4 Prime in Alberta

I read somewhere there were only 4000 units built. Great engineers, stubborn management.

 

[machstang]

I read somewhere there were only 4000 units built. Great engineers, stubborn management.

Stubborn indeed...

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cleantechnica.com

"Reports in the Japanese media suggest Toyota simply failed to line up a large enough supply of batteries to meet the demand, even though all the batteries for the planned home market production of 4,000 vehicles would only require about 5.5 MWh of batteries — a very modest amount in today’s world in which battery factory output starts at 10 GWh and goes up sharply from there. One suspects the big bosses at Toyota simply didn’t believe the car would sell well and failed to arrange for an adequate supply of batteries. That is almost as inconceivable as introducing a new gasoline powered model and forgetting to order pistons."