[ElectricPony]

Ford’s global director of electrification, Mark Kaufman participated in a Q&A the other day and in it he mentions how Ford isn't worried about low gas prices affecting their EV sales. I agree with him, at this point people that are interested in buying an EV aren't going to change their mind just because gas prices drop for a brief period.

“A lot of the different CO2 demands from around the world are going to drive us that way,” Kaufman said. “Ford's perspective is in order to meet that demand, you've got to really come up with a compelling reason for the customers to buy—so exciting products, great capability, new functionality that you can't quite get with a conventionally powered vehicle for us are all ways that we can help manage that transition to the end of the decade.”

And that’s why Ford doesn’t see the success of its EVs like Mach-E as being tethered to the price of gas, he said.

“We think...people are buying them because they're great products first and maybe that cost of ownership on some products, like the commercial van, might be a little bit more of a consideration,” he said. “If you were only relying on cost of ownership as your main reason for purchase, this (very low gas prices) could be quite disruptive.”

Generally speaking, gas prices and EV sales have been detached. While an extreme upward spike of gas prices might boost electric-car sales, there’s little or no precedent to show that a sudden drop in gas prices—like earlier this year—will cause sales of EVs to fall.

A lasting economic downturn is a greater concern, and so far reports are split on whether we’ll recover with electric-car sales gaining or losing ground in market share. In April, the market research firm Wood Mackenzie was one of a minority predicting that EVs could lose ground this year globally.

Ford isn’t worried about low gas prices fueling EV avoidance

Ford's top executive for electric vehicles notes that if EV sales are tied to ownership costs above all else, they're doing something wrong.

www.greencarreports.com

 

[dbsb3233]

I agree that low gas prices won't have much impact on the Mach-e, but for a little different reason... Mach-e market share is a tiny drop of Ford's total. There's more than enough niche demand for it from people that don't even care about fuel prices as a motivating factor.

Now, if Ford's BEV offerings were like 50% of their sales, then it would be a different matter. That would include a lot of mainstream buyers that are more motivated by cost.

 

[JTK44]

Here on Long Island electricity is $.22 per KWH. With gas at around $2.00 a gallon there is no savings in get a BEV. In fact operating cost for an ICE are cheaper than an EV until you reach about $2.25 a gallon.

The reason I am get the First Edition is not to save money: even with the Federal and State rebates my First Edition will cost $50,000. For less money I can get a Ford Edge ST that outperforms and has more room that the MachE.

The reason I am getting the MachE is that I want to do my part, albeit a small part, in going green and I anticipate that the driving experience will be dynamic.

 

[dbsb3233]

Here on Long Island electricity is $.22 per KWH. With gas at around $2.00 a gallon there is no savings in get a BEV. In fact operating cost for an ICE are cheaper than an EV until you reach about $2.25 a gallon.

The reason I am get the First Edition is not to save money: even with the Federal and State rebates my First Edition will cost $50,000. For less money I can get a Ford Edge ST that outperforms and has more room that the MachE.

The reason I am getting the MachE is that I want to do my part, albeit a small part, in going green and I anticipate that the driving experience will be dynamic.

Depending on what the MPG of the ICE car that you're comparison it too, anyway. In my case, my residential electricity rate is only $0.105/kWh, so it's about 3x cheaper to fuel my Mach-e than to fuel my Escape (which gets about 25 MPG) when gas is $2.50/gal.

I estimate Mach-e mileage at around 3.3 miles/kWh. At your $0.22/kWh rate, that's $0.066 per mile. With $2.00/gal gas, break-even would be at 30 MPG.

It's unfortunate that electricity rates vary so much from place to place, since that's a big part of the equation. If I weren't saving significant $$$ on fuel (to offset the extra $10k-$15k BEV purchase price premium), I probably wouldn't be buying a BEV.

 

[JTK44]

I think if you run the numbers, there is very little savings vs. an ICE and certainly not enough to recoup the extra cost of between $15K and $20K vs. an Escape or $5K to $15K vs. an Edge.

Actually you will get 2.85 miles per KWH not 3.3 miles per KWH: the First Edition has a range of 280 miles, 98 KW battery equals 2.85 miles per KWH.

To restore 98 KW will require $21.56 of electricity at $.22 per KWH. This will then cost $.077 per mile. This is ideal and max conditions. Range above 50 miles per hour, temperatures below 50 degrees and above 70 degrees, the range will decrease and at 10 degrees the range will decrease 30% to less than 200 miles.

The Ford Escape at 30 mpg, to go 280 miles will require 9.33 gallons. At $2 per gallon to drive 280 miles will cost $18.66. This is $.066 per mile less than the First Edition.

As I said with electricity costing $.22 per KWH there is no savings vs. a ICE.

My Ford Edge Sport (same as 2020 ST) gets on average 24 miles per gallon. The cost of going 280 miles at $2.00 a gallon is $23.34. This is $.083 per mile. But the Edge ST will cost $5,000 less then the First Edition, even after Federal and State rebates.

 

[timbop]

Actually you will get 2.85 miles per KWH not 3.3 miles per KWH: the First Edition has a range of 280 miles, 98 KW battery equals 2.85 miles per KWH.

Assuming there is a 10% buffer, for the ER RWD cars it comes out to roughly 3.3 (300/90=3.33). AWD ER would be 3 at a 10% buffer (270/90). A SR battery of 70 kWh would also yield roughly the same (3.28 = 230/70, 3 = 210/70).

 

[JTK44]

You must apply the 10% buffer to both: If you reduce the 98 KWH battery by 10% then you must also reduce the range by 10%. So the First Editions range would be reduced by 10% from 280 to 252.

You know me and I live in the North East, so AWD is a must: The California edition with the max range is viable in the North East.

So again, 98 KWH = 280 miles, that means each KWH yields 2.85 miles.

Correction: just checked: the extended range AWD: battery is 98.8 KW (not 98KW) and the range is 270 (not 280) so the max range per KW is 2.73 miles, not 2.85.

 

[MacMike]

I think if you run the numbers, there is very little savings vs. an ICE and certainly not enough to recoup the extra cost of between $15K and $20K vs. an Escape or $5K to $15K vs. an Edge.

Actually you will get 2.85 miles per KWH not 3.3 miles per KWH: the First Edition has a range of 280 miles, 98 KW battery equals 2.85 miles per KWH.

To restore 98 KW will require $21.56 of electricity at $.22 per KWH. This will then cost $.077 per mile. This is ideal and max conditions. Range above 50 miles per hour, temperatures below 50 degrees and above 70 degrees, the range will decrease and at 10 degrees the range will decrease 30% to less than 200 miles.

The Ford Escape at 30 mpg, to go 280 miles will require 9.33 gallons. At $2 per gallon to drive 280 miles will cost $18.66. This is $.066 per mile less than the First Edition.

As I said with electricity costing $.22 per KWH there is no savings vs. a ICE.

My Ford Edge Sport (same as 2020 ST) gets on average 24 miles per gallon. The cost of going 280 miles at $2.00 a gallon is $23.34. This is $.083 per mile. But the Edge ST will cost $5,000 less then the First Edition, even after Federal and State rebates.

All these numbers depends on type of driving and programs offered by your power company. In my case my driving will allow me to charge at home 95% of the time. The program I'm under with my power company gives me free electricity between 2000 and 0600 hrs every night. I'm sure as more EVs come online they will be dropping that program ASAP!

 

[JTK44]

The last time I got free electricity was when I lived with my parents but that was over 50 years ago!

Free is hard to beat!

 

[timbop]

You must apply the 10% buffer to both: If you reduce the 98 KWH battery by 10% then you must also reduce the range by 10%.

No. The range is the range, regardless of any buffer size. The stated battery size includes the buffer which isn't available to the user when the range is computed. The buffer exists to protect the battery from fully discharging, and to "hide" when the capacity starts to diminish.

 

[machstang]

It might impact sales more in the US than it will in Europe but overall electric is always going to be up.

2021 is expected to be a big year: EV Sales To Soar in 2021 to 3 Million

 

[ElectricPony]

It might impact sales more in the US than it will in Europe but overall electric is always going to be up.

2021 is expected to be a big year: EV Sales To Soar in 2021 to 3 Million

I really hope these numbers actually happen, especially with everything surrounding the pandemic.

 

[machstang]

I really hope these numbers actually happen, especially with everything surrounding the pandemic.

No one can really be sure about anything till all this passes, not even the research firms producing these numbers.

 

[dbsb3233]

I really hope these numbers actually happen, especially with everything surrounding the pandemic.

I think it probably will. But keep in mind that 3 million is still only about 4% of new passenger vehicles sold worldwide each year. While we are in the early stages of a surge in EV sales, it's still way more niche than mainstream.