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Don't really see EV's competing with each other so much as with ICE cars. Even going with just 11% of Americans looking to buy an EV, that's 1.5M EV's in US. Doubt there are enough EV's shipped to US to cover even 50% of that demand.

Teslas market niche is cheapest, fastest with most range.
 

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Don't really see EV's competing with each other so much as with ICE cars. Even going with just 11% of Americans looking to buy an EV, that's 1.5M EV's in US. Doubt there are enough EV's shipped to US to cover even 50% of that demand.

Teslas market niche is cheapest, fastest with most range.
It’s not just the MMe, but all the others coming to market. Still plenty of customers to go around.
 

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Discussion Starter · #4 ·
Don't really see EV's competing with each other so much as with ICE cars. Even going with just 11% of Americans looking to buy an EV, that's 1.5M EV's in US. Doubt there are enough EV's shipped to US to cover even 50% of that demand.

Teslas market niche is cheapest, fastest with most range.
True.
It will take a while for real competition to happen, like what we've been seeing with ICE cars for decades. What we will see however are some automakers playing catch-up and missing out in the short term. VW Group is slowly getting into Tesla's territory so that should be interesting to watch throughout the 2020's
 

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Tesla valuation makes no sense as a automobile company (larger than the ~10 largest automakers combined).
Tesla may actually be UNDERVALUED as an energy company.

To compare Tesla cars vs Ford, VW... to arrive at valuation conclusions is just plain lazy analysis.
 

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Discussion Starter · #6 ·
Tesla valuation makes no sense as a automobile company (larger than the ~10 largest automakers combined).
Tesla may actually be UNDERVALUED as an energy company.

To compare Tesla cars vs Ford, VW... to arrive at valuation conclusions is just plain lazy analysis.
Best of all, its coming from J.P. Morgan, where one would expect solid conclusions.
 

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Tesla valuation makes no sense as a automobile company (larger than the ~10 largest automakers combined).
Tesla may actually be UNDERVALUED as an energy company.

To compare Tesla cars vs Ford, VW... to arrive at valuation conclusions is just plain lazy analysis.
As you've pointed out, the overvaluation of Tesla due to stock market frenzy is the biggest factor that leads to a predictable future drop in the stock's value. Of course, when that future arrives is the less predictable part.
 

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As you've pointed out, the overvaluation of Tesla due to stock market frenzy is the biggest factor that leads to a predictable future drop in the stock's value. Of course, when that future arrives is the less predictable part.
Even the most ardent tesla fans know this is unsustainable. But Tesla can avoid a big correction by continuing to show growth while expanding their TAM (Total Addressable Market). I have mentioned here in the past, I would not at all be surprised to see a complete home energy solution from Tesla. Solar roof and battery they already have, heat pump, hot water heater... and even a fridge or pool heater is not out of the question... If the complete solution can be had with a price attractive enough so the payback period is reasonable (say ~10 years), I'll say TSLA may actually be undervalued.
 

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I'm very interested to see how Tesla's trials of operating as a distributed, virtual utility company succeed.
 

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Even the most ardent tesla fans know this is unsustainable. But Tesla can avoid a big correction by continuing to show growth while expanding their TAM (Total Addressable Market). I have mentioned here in the past, I would not at all be surprised to see a complete home energy solution from Tesla. Solar roof and battery they already have, heat pump, hot water heater... and even a fridge or pool heater is not out of the question... If the complete solution can be had with a price attractive enough so the payback period is reasonable (say ~10 years), I'll say TSLA may actually be undervalued.
There is already a home HVAC in the works.

Even though I should (hopefully) see my Tesla solar roof and PowerWalls by the Spring, I am still purchasing my Mitsubishi split HVAC unit, they are a proven leader in the field.

Another platitude: Never put all your egg in one basket.
 

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Another platitude: Never put all your egg in one basket.
A lot of fund managers continue to sell TSLA as the price is going up because they limit any single security value to a max % of their total portfolio value.

I think it's OK for young people with high growth/risk portfolios to have a single stock that makes up a large percentage so long as they protect it with puts or straddles.
 

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I would not at all be surprised to see a complete home energy solution from Tesla. Solar roof and battery they already have, heat pump, hot water heater... and even a fridge or pool heater is not out of the question... If the complete solution can be had with a price attractive enough so the payback period is reasonable (say ~10 years), I'll say TSLA may actually be undervalued.
Solar PV is a commodity business, prices falling, volume key and Tesla is not even in the top 10 on solar PV. Don’t see a place in the market for Tesla on solar PV.


Utility grade battery storage is a spot where Tesla does have the volume to compete but that is in partnership with Panasonic so Tesla is not a pure play in battery storage and LG (Korea) and CATL and BYD (China) lead in world.

Automotive was 80% of revenue for Tesla after absorbing Solar City and autos will likely stay at 80% so judging Tesla should be mostly based on the auto industry.
 

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Not much choice outside of Tesla if one doesn't want the reflective monstrosities for that frankenhouse look.
Yes the Tesla solar roof is expensive but it's the only one that my wife would approve.

Sent from my LM-G710 using Tapatalk
 

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Yes the Tesla solar roof is expensive but it's the only one that my wife would approve.
Other companies make solar tile. As you note, they are the most expensive form of PV. Tesla could hang on to a niche market there but even there they have competition and the market is small due the much higher price of product and installation for PV tile systems.

I think Tesla eval will always be based on Tesla being 80% auto revenue, 85% if one counts the ancillary income related to auto in the financial statement.
 
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