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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Competition is wonderful. I'll say this... If someone is on the fence and can't decide between a MME, ID.4, or a MY, they should absolutely pick the MME or the ID.4 because it would ensure they have more and better choices in the future. Look what AMD has done for PCs.


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Without credits it's $5,000 less than the comparable Premium Standard Range Mach E and $2,500 less than the comparable id4 pro. Federal credit is going to run out, or be extended again to Tesla under Biden.
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
Without credits it's $5,000 less than the comparable Premium Standard Range Mach E and $2,500 less than the comparable id4 pro. Federal credit is going to run out, or be extended again to Tesla under Biden.
Until that's the case... For those on the fence, choosing the competition vs the dominant player moves the needle in the direction that benefits consumers.

Tesla has always had the RWD, Standard range lever against the MME. Their timing is good.
The other big lever Tesla has is FSD. They can simply provide discounts/incentives that tilt the balance in their favor for those on the fence.... they've done this already in 4Q.

Elon is a smart businessman.
 

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Without credits it's $5,000 less than the comparable Premium Standard Range Mach E and $2,500 less than the comparable id4 pro. Federal credit is going to run out, or be extended again to Tesla under Biden.
Or, $100 more than the direct comparison. The Select Trim, Standard Range RWD. Without the credits.
 

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Discussion Starter · #7 · (Edited)
I think that's why he's thumbing his nose at the base prices and range of some of the 2021 new entrants, instead of introducing the RWD long range.
It won't be a net sum gain game for a long time yet. Tesla can LOSE EV market share while INCREASING sales. yes both is possible.
 

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Discussion Starter · #9 ·
Its said that by 2022 we could be seeing a new Tesla model that starts from $25,000. If rumors are true, then this will be a very disruptive vehicle that gets other more well established automakers to shift priorities around.
This is why I think that GM hasn't got a clue. Seems they never put a serious engineering effort into leveraging and cost reducing the Bolt platform. Their last 2 BEV launches were basically smoke and mirror renderings + CGI. 2 ~$100K vehicles with uninspiring range.
I also think the tax incentives should be structured for the cars price targeted at the middle class.
 

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This is why I think that GM hasn't got a clue. Seems they never put a serious engineering effort into leveraging and cost reducing the Bolt platform. Their last 2 BEV launches were basically smoke and mirror renderings + CGI. 2 ~$100K vehicles with uninspiring range.
I also think the tax incentives should be structured for the cars price targeted at the middle class.
GM might be onto something with the new Ultium batteries and flexible global platform they revealed.

Of course, who knows how all of that will play out.
 

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Discussion Starter · #11 ·
GM might be onto something with the new Ultium batteries and flexible global platform they revealed.

Of course, who knows how all of that will play out.
Big hoopla with Ultium batteries... but let's have a look at how it's "productized":
  • Cadillac Lyriq - 300 mile range... in 2023! for a flagship luxury brand.
  • Hummer EV Edition 1 - 350 mile range... good .. but a $113K vehicle. Yes I know Edition 1 reservations are full but how many were available? 10? or 10,000? For comparison, tri-motor AWD Cybertruck is 400+ miles range at $70K. Rivian R1T Max pack is 400+ miles range at $85K.
Unless they show significant improvement in this year, GM should just give up on Ultium and go with LG Chem.
 

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Or, $100 more than the direct comparison. The Select Trim, Standard Range RWD. Without the credits.
I thought the Long Range Dual Motor Model Y is the equivalent of the Premium AWD LR, not the Select.

This new RWD Model Y, would then the equivalent of the Premium, RWD SR.

Price of Premium, RWD SR is $47,000 less Federal Tax Credit of $7,500, $39,500 vs. the Model Y RWD SR, $41,990 which makes the MME $2,490 cheaper.

Is my thinking and/or math correct?
 

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Big hoopla with Ultium batteries... but let's have a look at how it's "productized":
  • Cadillac Lyriq - 300 mile range... in 2023! for a flagship luxury brand.
  • Hummer EV Edition 1 - 350 mile range... good .. but a $113K vehicle. Yes I know Edition 1 reservations are full but how many were available? 10? or 10,000? For comparison, tri-motor AWD Cybertruck is 400+ miles range at $70K. Rivian R1T Max pack is 400+ miles range at $85K.
Unless they show significant improvement in this year, GM should just give up on Ultium and go with LG Chem.
Those will be 2 of 30 EV models from GM to arrive by 2025 according to the CEO.
 

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I thought the Long Range Dual Motor Model Y is the equivalent of the Premium AWD LR, not the Select.

This new RWD Model Y, would then the equivalent of the Premium, RWD SR.

Price of Premium, RWD SR is $47,000 less Federal Tax Credit of $7,500, $39,500 vs. the Model Y RWD SR, $41,990 which makes the MME $2,490 cheaper.

Is my thinking and/or math correct?
In Canada. The MME premium RWD and Tessa model Y RWD std range is within $2000 of each other. Good to have 2 choices. In my situation I live in Rural Ontario and there are 4 Ford dealers within 10 min to 45 min drive of my home. The closest Tesla service centre is 1 hour drive.

I think the MME FE is better for me then Tessa MY AWD long range. My ordered FE in Grabber Blue is arriving at my dealer this month. I can still back out and choose a Tesla but so far I am still thinking the MME is best choice. If the tie breaker is the Tessa Supercharger network then Tessa would be the right choice. But having dealers and service so near to my home counters that advantage. The other concern I have is the quality control at Tesla appears to be inconsistent and that worries me since I like to keep cars for a minimum of 10 years.

The deal breaker with Tesla is that the windows have to move down to open door, along with the handle design. Both of these features will not always work in heavy snow and ice winter climates that we get in Canada. Last issue is the Tesla tire and wheels are much too low profile for Canadian roads. We get potholes and MME with 55 aspect ratio is safer. It does reduce the nimble handling slightly but how often do I need to drive like a race car driver on mainly highway and rural road driving?

Always open to differing views as this is a $73000 CDN plus 13% tax decision. I did a cost calculation comparing the MME FE to comparably equipped ICE and Hybrid cars/suvs and I save $15000 to $25000 over a 10 year period all costs included.

The Ford Escape total cost of ownership is equal to the MME Premium AWD LR based on 11 years. Not sure why anyone would want to buy an ICE car.
 

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The Ford Escape total cost of ownership is equal to the MME Premium AWD LR based on 11 years. Not sure why anyone would want to buy an ICE car.
That’s Easy!

Many of us do not want to or intend to own a vehicle for 10 years. We only want to own a vehicle for the manufactures bumper to bumper warranty, 3 years/36,000 miles. I am one and that is why I lease which if you are going to get a new car every 3 years, it is cheaper to lease than buy.


But even if you buy and intend to keep for 3 years, a comparable ICE will be substantially less expensive than the MachE Premium AWD LR.

For comparison I will use the Ford Escape Titanium. The MSRP of the car is $41,160. The selling price is $33,869, sales tax is an additional $2921, total out the door is $36,790.



3737



Assume you drive 10,000 miles per year. The resale value after three years will be 50%, $20,580, so your cost will be $16,210. ($36,790 less $20,580)

Assume an average mpg of 25, 1200 gallons of fuel @$2.25 per gallon, $2700.

Oil and filter change at 7,500-mile intervals, 3 changes @$50 each $150.



Total cost of ownership $19,060


Ford Mach Premium AWD LR

Purchase price of $54,700, tax of $4718, total $59,417 less Federal Tax Credit of $7,500, cost of purchase $51,917.



Assume 10,000 miles per year, after three years resale value of 50%, $27,350, your cost will be $24,567 vs. $19,060 for the Ford Escape and this is before the cost of electricity.

If we assume 270-mile range for 88KW, that is 3 miles per KW.

30,000 miles @3 miles per KW 1,000 KW. On Long Island we pay $.16 per KW for night time (regular electricity is $.22 per KW) so electricity cost, charging at home is $1600. If we use superchargers, $.31 per KW, the cost would be double.

When the cost of electricity is added in the cost of ownership is $26,167 or over $7000 more than an Escape.



There is one additional cost and that is use of money or opportunity cost. The Mache, out the door cost $51,917 vs. $36,790 for the Escape, a difference of $15,127. Using only 3% as opportunity cost that is an additional $450 per year, three years an additional $1,350.



Going out 10 years, 100,000 miles the additional costs of the Escape would be:



  • 10 additional oil changes @$50 per change $500
  • Brakes, twice @$400, $800
  • Tires at 40,000 and 80,000 miles, 8 tires @$125 per tire, $1,000
  • Spark plug change, air filter change at 50,000 miles $500
  • Gas for 70,000-mile, 25 mpg @$2.25, $6300
Total additional expense: $9,100

Assume resale value at 10%, $4,100.



Total cost over 10 years.

  • Purchase price $ 36,790
  • Fuel for 100,000 miles 9,000
  • 13 oil changes 650
  • Two brake jobs 800
  • 8 tires 1,000
  • Spark plug change (4 plugs) + filter 500
Total $ 48,740

Less: resale value 4,100

Total 10 year out of pocket $ $44,640



Engine and transmission are warranted for 100,000 miles. Cabin filters are the same as in the MME. Suspensions, struts, windows, etc. same as MME.



Cost for the Premium AWD LR:



  • Purchase Price $ 51,917
  • Use of money $450 for 10 years $ 4,500
  • Tires: 30,000 miles, 12 tires $ 1,500
  • Electricity 3,333 KW @$.16 $ 5,300


Total $ $63,297

Less resale value 5,470

Total10 year out of pocket $57,827



Over 10 years that makes the Escape cheaper by $13,187.

As I have posted, I am getting the MachE not to save money, but to save the environment. I want to green.



I think anyone buying the MachE to save money over an ICE is going to be disappointed.


.
 

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Discussion Starter · #19 ·
That’s Easy!

Many of us do not want to or intend to own a vehicle for 10 years. We only want to own a vehicle for the manufactures bumper to bumper warranty, 3 years/36,000 miles. I am one and that is why I lease which if you are going to get a new car every 3 years, it is cheaper to lease than buy.


But even if you buy and intend to keep for 3 years, a comparable ICE will be substantially less expensive than the MachE Premium AWD LR.

For comparison I will use the Ford Escape Titanium. The MSRP of the car is $41,160. The selling price is $33,869, sales tax is an additional $2921, total out the door is $36,790.



View attachment 3737


Assume you drive 10,000 miles per year. The resale value after three years will be 50%, $20,580, so your cost will be $16,210. ($36,790 less $20,580)

Assume an average mpg of 25, 1200 gallons of fuel @$2.25 per gallon, $2700.

Oil and filter change at 7,500-mile intervals, 3 changes @$50 each $150.



Total cost of ownership $19,060


Ford Mach Premium AWD LR

Purchase price of $54,700, tax of $4718, total $59,417 less Federal Tax Credit of $7,500, cost of purchase $51,917.



Assume 10,000 miles per year, after three years resale value of 50%, $27,350, your cost will be $24,567 vs. $19,060 for the Ford Escape and this is before the cost of electricity.

If we assume 270-mile range for 88KW, that is 3 miles per KW.

30,000 miles @3 miles per KW 1,000 KW. On Long Island we pay $.16 per KW for night time (regular electricity is $.22 per KW) so electricity cost, charging at home is $1600. If we use superchargers, $.31 per KW, the cost would be double.

When the cost of electricity is added in the cost of ownership is $26,167 or over $7000 more than an Escape.



There is one additional cost and that is use of money or opportunity cost. The Mache, out the door cost $51,917 vs. $36,790 for the Escape, a difference of $15,127. Using only 3% as opportunity cost that is an additional $450 per year, three years an additional $1,350.



Going out 10 years, 100,000 miles the additional costs of the Escape would be:



  • 10 additional oil changes @$50 per change $500
  • Brakes, twice @$400, $800
  • Tires at 40,000 and 80,000 miles, 8 tires @$125 per tire, $1,000
  • Spark plug change, air filter change at 50,000 miles $500
  • Gas for 70,000-mile, 25 mpg @$2.25, $6300
Total additional expense: $9,100

Assume resale value at 10%, $4,100.



Total cost over 10 years.

  • Purchase price $ 36,790
  • Fuel for 100,000 miles 9,000
  • 13 oil changes 650
  • Two brake jobs 800
  • 8 tires 1,000
  • Spark plug change (4 plugs) + filter 500
Total $ 48,740

Less: resale value 4,100

Total 10 year out of pocket $ $44,640



Engine and transmission are warranted for 100,000 miles. Cabin filters are the same as in the MME. Suspensions, struts, windows, etc. same as MME.



Cost for the Premium AWD LR:



  • Purchase Price $ 51,917
  • Use of money $450 for 10 years $ 4,500
  • Tires: 30,000 miles, 12 tires $ 1,500
  • Electricity 3,333 KW @$.16 $ 5,300


Total $ $63,297

Less resale value 5,470

Total10 year out of pocket $57,827



Over 10 years that makes the Escape cheaper by $13,187.

As I have posted, I am getting the MachE not to save money, but to save the environment. I want to green.



I think anyone buying the MachE to save money over an ICE is going to be disappointed.


.
Financially, buying a luxury, certified pre-owned car and turning them over often is the most economical. Warranty will cover bumper/bumper 2~4 years depending on the brand/vehicle with generous terms. Basically, you are letting the original owner, leaser pay for the steepest part of the depreciation curve, driving the car for the flat part, then trading it in before the big drop. I've driven many luxury cars this way while paying no more out of pocket than I would for an average car lease. I don't need to breath plastics outgassing VOCs (new car smell) like some people do.

So for us too... the MME is NOT an economic/financial decision. I doubt it is for most people. I do have a lot of coworkers whose daily commute (when they were doing it) was ~100 miles round trip as a consequence of some facilities consolidations on my employers part. I think for those people it makes financial sense.
 

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Until that's the case... For those on the fence, choosing the competition vs the dominant player moves the needle in the direction that benefits consumers.

Tesla has always had the RWD, Standard range lever against the MME. Their timing is good.
The other big lever Tesla has is FSD. They can simply provide discounts/incentives that tilt the balance in their favor for those on the fence.... they've done this already in 4Q.

Elon is a smart businessman.
The other advantage they have is they can offer free charging. Their year end sale was 1 year free supercharging and fsd trial. The one thing that keeps me on the fence is the crappy 3rd party charging network and the fact that we can only charge up to 150kw. I hope the hardware can support faster and will be released with an update.
 
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