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Discussion Starter #1
I'm starting this as a new thread as it contains a whole series of guesstimates you can use to see when your Mach E MIGHT be produced.

Let's assume they will keep the Cuautitlan plant going with continuous production from Mach E job #1 through the GTs. I'll also assume the 4000 dealer demos and specials are run at a slower rate before the start of job #1, that makes 46,000 units. From 26 October through the end of the year is 8 weeks. Three weeks off for Christmas through Three Kings Day means a restart 11 January. The next run is 12 weeks until Good Friday, 2 April. Another 2 week break and a restart 19 April gives us 15 weeks through the end of July. 35 weeks. That allows for US delivery of GTs in late summer. There may also need to be some downtime to reset the line before the start of the GTs.

That gives us an estimated average line production rate of 1300 cars per week, 260 per day. So realistically we are probably looking at between 1000-1500 cars per week or 200-300 per day.

Further assumptions (and lots of guesses):
~3,000 First Editions (Best estimates range from a low of 3,000 total to no more than 10% of the total. Final number depends on if non-converted FE reservations are opened up or if the only build the numbers left of those who initially reserved.
~30% GTs (based on https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2019/12/30/mustang-mach-e-first-edition-reservation-facts.html?cks=&emailid=Article Alert Ford)

In the US, let's assume 5% FE, 25% GT, 50% Premium, 15% Select, 5% CA Route 1
(based on one reservation and one order database)
In Europe let's assume 20% AWD, 60% RWD (based on reservation database and a guess of 20% GTs)

Total units:
20,000 US: 1,000 FEs, 5,000 GTs, 10,000 Premium, 3,000 Select, 1,000 CA Route 1
30,000 EU: 18,000 RWD, 6,000 AWD, 6,000 GTs

Working with these numbers:
Run 1 focuses on getting out as many US cars as possible
26 October-23 December 8 weeks 8,000-12,000 Mach Es

This will be 1,000 FEs, 5,000- Premiums, 1000-1,500 Selects, 500 CA Route 1

Run 2 focuses on getting out as many EU cars as possible
11 January-2 April 12 weeks 12,000-18,000 Mach Es

Run 3 gets out the rest of the Mach Es, including all GTs
19 April-30 July 15 weeks 15,000-22,500 Mach Es

That models out to:

View attachment 1791


You can compare your reservation numbers against these to get an idea of the run in which your Mach E MIGHT be produced. The latest reservation number is over 80,000.

Fire away with corrections to my math or your theories.
 

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I'm starting this as a new thread as it contains a whole series of guesstimates you can use to see when your Mach E MIGHT be produced.

Let's assume they will keep the Cuautitlan plant going with continuous production from Mach E job #1 through the GTs. I'll also assume the 4000 dealer demos and specials are run at a slower rate before the start of job #1, that makes 46,000 units. From 26 October through the end of the year is 8 weeks. Three weeks off for Christmas through Three Kings Day means a restart 11 January. The next run is 12 weeks until Good Friday, 2 April. Another 2 week break and a restart 19 April gives us 15 weeks through the end of July. 35 weeks. That allows for US delivery of GTs in late summer. There may also need to be some downtime to reset the line before the start of the GTs.

That gives us an estimated average line production rate of 1300 cars per week, 260 per day. So realistically we are probably looking at between 1000-1500 cars per week or 200-300 per day.

Further assumptions (and lots of guesses):
~3,000 First Editions (Best estimates range from a low of 3,000 total to no more than 10% of the total. Final number depends on if non-converted FE reservations are opened up or if the only build the numbers left of those who initially reserved.
~30% GTs (based on https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2019/12/30/mustang-mach-e-first-edition-reservation-facts.html?cks=&emailid=Article Alert Ford)

In the US, let's assume 5% FE, 25% GT, 50% Premium, 15% Select, 5% CA Route 1
(based on one reservation and one order database)
In Europe let's assume 20% AWD, 60% RWD (based on reservation database and a guess of 20% GTs)

Total units:
20,000 US: 1,000 FEs, 5,000 GTs, 10,000 Premium, 3,000 Select, 1,000 CA Route 1
30,000 EU: 18,000 RWD, 6,000 AWD, 6,000 GTs

Working with these numbers:
Run 1 focuses on getting out as many US cars as possible
26 October-23 December 8 weeks 8,000-12,000 Mach Es

This will be 1,000 FEs, 5,000- Premiums, 1000-1,500 Selects, 500 CA Route 1

Run 2 focuses on getting out as many EU cars as possible
11 January-2 April 12 weeks 12,000-18,000 Mach Es

Run 3 gets out the rest of the Mach Es, including all GTs
19 April-30 July 15 weeks 15,000-22,500 Mach Es

That models out to:

View attachment 1791


You can compare your reservation numbers against these to get an idea of the run in which your Mach E MIGHT be produced. The latest reservation number is over 80,000.

Fire away with corrections to my math or your theories.
If you calculate at 3,000 vehicles per week (about 60% full production), they could hit 20k by years end.

Also consider: Ford will put the vehicles where the demand is. If the European sales don’t approach 30k in time, but US demand is there, will they sell the cars here rather than have them sit on lots in the EU?

another hypothetical: will Ford increase the number of planned MMe builds based on market demands? What if they built 50k non-GT vehicles, consideing the GT delay to Summer 2021, would they be able to get their hands on additional battery cells? Considering many manufacturers delaying EV plans, will LG have capacity to accommodate?
 

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I do wish that Ford had set up two distinct reservation lists showing North America and Europe. I'm in the 5 digit category but I have little idea on what that will mean for production and delivery. It was my understanding that certain models would be built first so I don't understand why GTs would be part of the first run
 

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Discussion Starter #6
I do wish that Ford had set up two distinct reservation lists showing North America and Europe. I'm in the 5 digit category but I have little idea on what that will mean for production and delivery. It was my understanding that certain models would be built first so I don't understand why GTs would be part of the first run
They wouldn't be. GTs are all in the third run.
 

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Nice job!!! But have you taking care of the 3000 units that goes to Canada? Here we doesn't have reservation number and our order number doesn't look like yours
Are the vehicles destined for Canada part of the 20,000 "US" allotment or should it be termed North America allotment?
 

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I'm guessing that's part of US number because if isn't the case US get less than 40% . Nowhere they talk about the 3000 unit is part of which piece of pie
 

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I do wish that Ford had set up two distinct reservation lists showing North America and Europe. I'm in the 5 digit category but I have little idea on what that will mean for production and delivery. It was my understanding that certain models would be built first so I don't understand why GTs would be part of the first run
Ok, I worked up some numbers based on the chart posted by @ChasingCoral the final estimate is that I should be taking delivery of the Premium Ext. RWD late in Kanye West's second term in the US Oval Office. Anyone want to hazard a guess on what the Option Plan rates will be at that time?
 

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Discussion Starter #12
Nice job!!! But have you taking care of the 3000 units that goes to Canada? Here we doesn't have reservation number and our order number doesn't look like yours
To be honest, I don't have enough information on where the Canada units fit or what to do with them in the model. We don't know if the 20,000 US and 30,000 EU includes Canada in the US numbers or where they are included. Do you have a one or more cutoff dates for conversion to orders in Canada?
 

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Something is sure , that they planned to ship us our unit before the end of the year so I guess that we are not part of europe
Its my understanding that EU is shipping towards end of year, but won’t hit EU dealerships until early 2021. Did i read something wrong?
 

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Something is sure , that they planned to ship us our unit before the end of the year so I guess that we are not part of europe
The delay for Europe is based on availability (or lack thereof) of Car Carrier ships and not production. However that still doesn't answer where the Canadian tranche comes from.
 

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Here we get reservation through dealer that get their allocation from ev sale performance from last year. Example, the dealer I choose get 65 allocations but he still have some left. On ford.ca now we can see , order now and get it 2021 but for all of us that reserved one we supposed to get it before end of 2020. I converted mine june 25 and I have the confirmation that my order is on ford order system. From day 1 , website say that FE, premium and select were available late 2020 when on US ford website, only FE and premium were late 2020. They're something weird about the 3000 canadian allocation and from this 3000, 2000 goes to quebec .
 

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Discussion Starter #17
Here we get reservation through dealer that get their allocation from ev sale performance from last year. Example, the dealer I choose get 65 allocations but he still have some left. On ford.ca now we can see , order now and get it 2021 but for all of us that reserved one we supposed to get it before end of 2020. I converted mine june 25 and I have the confirmation that my order is on ford order system. From day 1 , website say that FE, premium and select were available late 2020 when on US ford website, only FE and premium were late 2020. They're something weird about the 3000 canadian allocation and from this 3000, 2000 goes to quebec .
So, not being sure about this I'd say consider the Canada orders to be part of the US orders, making those North American estimates.

Its my understanding that EU is shipping towards end of year, but won’t hit EU dealerships until early 2021. Did i read something wrong?
I recalled hearing that EU deliveries were now being promised for Spring 2021.

Also, Ford is now promising starting deliveries of all non-GT models in the US in late 2020.

It's quite possible that my assumption of the separation of production run 1 and run 2 into US and EU is incorrect. If run 1 includes both US and EU then the number of deliveries to the US in run 1 go down. However, to start including EU cars means ordering has to open up for non-Dutch EU cars.

Per Friday's FDNB (Fleet Distribution News Bulletin), here's the production timetable for the 2021 Mustang Mach-E.
  • 06/22/2020 - 2021MY Order Bank Open Date
  • 08/20/2020 - 2021MY Scheduling Begins
  • 10/26/2020 - 2021MY Job #1 Date
So, the first run, from Job #1 to 12/23-ish has to be scheduled by 8/20, thus the 7/31 order cutoff.

Did I miss an announcement that non-Dutch EU orders have opened?
 

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