Mach-E Forum | Ford Mustang Mach-E Forum and News banner

61 - 80 of 97 Posts

·
Registered
MME First Edition Rapid Red
Joined
·
205 Posts
I’m not sure that those are dealers turning those down for inventory. I think that at least is an incorrect assumption. I think it is Ford allowing those who were interested in a FE to convert an order based on availability due to cancellations.

I do agree with your concerns about the lack of a lease. I just think it is too long a leap to say at this time that the demand for the car has plummeted due to that factor and the allowance to make a handful of FE available.
 

·
Registered
Reserved First Edition Rapid Red Metallic
Joined
·
572 Posts
I’m not sure that those are dealers turning those down for inventory. I think that at least is an incorrect assumption. I think it is Ford allowing those who were interested in a FE to convert an order based on availability due to cancellations.

I do agree with your concerns about the lack of a lease. I just think it is too long a leap to say at this time that the demand for the car has plummeted due to that factor and the allowance to make a handful of FE available.
The First Editions were "sold out" by December.

When it came time to convert, people got "cold feet".

If the dealers felt confident in the MachE, they would have seized on the opportunity to obtain a First Edition.

They would have a "unique" MachE sitting on their showroom floor to generate buzz and bring traffic into their dealership.

Instead they assigned it to you.

As I said Great News for you and I am happy for you.

Not such good news for Ford.

Lease: My point is that unless there is a real lease option, when it comes time to convert orders to actual sales, many will just cancel. I will be one of them, and my dealer will be the proud owner of a Rapid Red First Edition!


.
 

·
Registered
MME First Edition Rapid Red
Joined
·
205 Posts
My dealer was inquiring because of MY request. You are making a few leaps of logic.

If they were "offered" the car and chose to put it in their inventory instead to give it to me . . . how upset would I be with my dealer when I stopped by and saw the car I wanted on the showroom floor before I received mine. Of course, maybe they would not care.

And . . . how do you know that they were not offered more than one and ordered it as well as a showpiece as you mentioned? (I didn't ask)

Once again, I totally agree with your thoughts on Ford needing a competitive lease option. I just don't agree with your leaps of logic on this issue. Unless you have some inside information not available to the rest of us.

In contrast, I have seen several comments of people upset that their dealer has converted their reservation to an order rather than them doing it. Should we interpret that the opposite way that dealers are converting so that they can have the car in their showroom even if the original reservation holder is still thinking about it?

Let's just agree they need to be competitive with the market on a better lease cost, or price on the vehicle. Let's hope they do.
 

·
Registered
Reserved First Edition Rapid Red Metallic
Joined
·
572 Posts
Let's do a small name change:

Instead of First Edition make it a Shelby GT 350 or GT500.

A customer put in an order than canceled it.

What would the dealer do?

Call you or put it into his stock to put on his showroom floor? I think we know the answer!

My point is that reality is starting to set in: the MachE, even with the Federal Tax Credit and possible State credits and/or waiving of sales tax is an expensive car - priced like a luxury car and Ford knows more than 50% of luxury cars are leased.

I think Ford was banking on limited numbers, 20,000 in the United States so that there would be no trouble in selling all of them.

What I think Ford failed to calculate was the Model Y that is both cheaper to buy and/or lease. For most Ford buyers of small to mid size SUV, the MachE is very expensive.

For example, I am on my second Ford Edge Sport (now the ST version) with full adaptive cruise control. The MSRP on both were $48,000. Both leased out, with NY State tax and acquisition fee and ZERO down payment for under $450 a month, 36 months 10,500 miles per year.

For all except we on this Forum, the Edge, and all other ICE SUV's are the competition for the MachE.

IMO, without a competitive lease programs many of the orders for the MachE will not be converted into sales. Considering that the demand for the Model Y continues, for the MachE not to sell would be a marketing disaster for Ford. Unless Ford marketing has their "head in the sand", I expect a competitive lease program for the MachE, including the First Edition.

Just my thinking and $.02.
 

·
Registered
Reserved First Edition Rapid Red Metallic
Joined
·
572 Posts
Dear Jhalkias:

Just realized another reason you got the First Edition: Sorry that I forgot it.

Unlike a regular car where the dealer invoice, plus hold backs and other incentives gives the dealer a large potential profit, with the MachE there is no dealer invoice and selling price - they are the same.

The dealer gets a fixed amount from Ford for the sale of each MachE.

This is the new way of marketing the MachE - much like Tesla does.

So unless there is an ADM, the dealer gets the same profit regardless of who he sells it to - so better to you an active customer than a stranger!

.
 

·
Registered
2016 Nissan Leaf, 2021 Mustang Mach-E First Edition reserved
Joined
·
893 Posts
Discussion Starter #67
Let's do a small name change:

Instead of First Edition make it a Shelby GT 350 or GT500.

A customer put in an order than canceled it.

What would the dealer do?

Call you or put it into his stock to put on his showroom floor? I think we know the answer!

My point is that reality is starting to set in: the MachE, even with the Federal Tax Credit and possible State credits and/or waiving of sales tax is an expensive car - priced like a luxury car and Ford knows more than 50% of luxury cars are leased.

I think Ford was banking on limited numbers, 20,000 in the United States so that there would be no trouble in selling all of them.

What I think Ford failed to calculate was the Model Y that is both cheaper to buy and/or lease. For most Ford buyers of small to mid size SUV, the MachE is very expensive.

For example, I am on my second Ford Edge Sport (now the ST version) with full adaptive cruise control. The MSRP on both were $48,000. Both leased out, with NY State tax and acquisition fee and ZERO down payment for under $450 a month, 36 months 10,500 miles per year.

For all except we on this Forum, the Edge, and all other ICE SUV's are the competition for the MachE.

IMO, without a competitive lease programs many of the orders for the MachE will not be converted into sales. Considering that the demand for the Model Y continues, for the MachE not to sell would be a marketing disaster for Ford. Unless Ford marketing has their "head in the sand", I expect a competitive lease program for the MachE, including the First Edition.

Just my thinking and $.02.
However, remember that we have multiple dealers converting reservations to orders without the customers' permission. I think they are doing this to control the inventory. If the customer cancels a reservation with Ford, Ford can sell that car (1/50,000) to another customer at whatever dealer the customer chooses. However, if the customer cancels a car that has been slated to the dealer or even delivered to a dealer, that dealer now has it in stock.

I suspect dealers who are on the ball, and especially those who have seen strong local demand, have figured out how to play the system and are making sure they get units into their dealership to sell.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
91 Posts
The 20,000 is for NA --- probably 15,000 for the US less about 4,000 GT’s.
Only about 11,000 Mach-E’s are available for the US.

A lot of reservation holders have never even seen the car and may be waiting for the demos before making the convert.
They should be at the dealers by the end of October.

Ford has given the Premium reservation holders until Dec 31 to convert, but the later you make the decision,
the greater chance of being bypassed to scheduled production at a later date.
Ford is not going to halt the assembly line and wait for your decision.

I doubt Ford will have any problem selling out this first year's run with or without a lease program.
As noted before --- Ford Credit made $3 Billion in 2019.
They seem to know what they are doing.
 

·
Registered
2016 Nissan Leaf, 2021 Mustang Mach-E First Edition reserved
Joined
·
893 Posts
Discussion Starter #69
The 20,000 is for NA --- probably 15,000 for the US less about 4,000 GT’s.
Only about 11,000 Mach-E’s are available for the US.

A lot of reservation holders have never even seen the car and may be waiting for the demos before making the convert.
They should be at the dealers by the end of October.

Ford has given the Premium reservation holders until Dec 31 to convert, but the later you make the decision,
the greater chance of being bypassed to scheduled production at a later date.
Ford is not going to halt the assembly line and wait for your decision.

I doubt Ford will have any problem selling out this first year's run with or without a lease program.
Two things to add here:

If you want your Mach E before Spring 2021, convert now and then make your final decision when it comes. If you wait to ride in one in November or December, you probably won't get yours until Spring 2021 at the soonest.

Many dealers would rather have you order now, see it, and then sell it to you or someone else. It's their only way to get a non FCTP unit on their showroom floor before 2021. I think this is why many dealers are converting reservations without asking customers. That locks the cars into their stock.
 

·
Registered
Reserved First Edition Rapid Red Metallic
Joined
·
572 Posts
I doubt Ford will have any problem selling out this first year's run with or without a lease program.
As noted before --- Ford Credit made $3 Billion in 2019.
They seem to know what they are doing.
Exactly what BMW thought with both their I3 and I8, Audi with their Etron and Jaguar with their IPace.

They are presently sitting on the dealer's lots. Dealer's cannot discount them enough to move them.

At the same time you have to wait for a Tesla Model 3 and Y.

I am have both a large equity and fixed income position in Ford, so I hope you are correct. I am rooting for the MachE to succeed.

You may be correct: unlike BMW, Audi and Jaguar, Ford in the US, may be able to sell 15,000 to 20,000 MachE without a competitive lease programs. In a few months we will find out.


.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
91 Posts
In a few months we will find out.
Have you converted your reservation for the FE to an order?
I think today may be the deadline to make it.

You are going to make your dealer very happy. :)
 

·
Registered
Reserved First Edition Rapid Red Metallic
Joined
·
572 Posts
Have you converted your reservation for the FE to an order?
I think today may be the deadline to make it.

You are going to make your dealer very happy. :)
Converted last month. Visited dealer and confirmed X-Plan pricing in writing.

Dealer has no information about financing, Ford Option Plan or leasing. Dealer said it is way to early.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
93 Posts
The First Editions were "sold out" by December.

When it came time to convert, people got "cold feet".

If the dealers felt confident in the MachE, they would have seized on the opportunity to obtain a First Edition.

They would have a "unique" MachE sitting on their showroom floor to generate buzz and bring traffic into their dealership.

Instead they assigned it to you.

As I said Great News for you and I am happy for you.

Not such good news for Ford.

Lease: My point is that unless there is a real lease option, when it comes time to convert orders to actual sales, many will just cancel. I will be one of them, and my dealer will be the proud owner of a Rapid Red First Edition!


.
I think far too many dealers (Ford or otherwise), are stuck in a mindset that is hampering them. They're not fond of the MME because "We don't make anything off of them." That's the actual quote from the local dealer out here when I threatened to walk away from them and have the car delivered to the mainland or Oahu. Yes, they do make money, there's just no holdback. The same dealer also complained about the cost of the required charging station they have to put in in order to be able to sell and maintain the cars. They're a dinosaur that doesn't know the meteor has already killed them.

There's nothing my local dealer can show me that will change my mind and get me to buy something else on their lots. Bronco? Nope, wrong category. Pickup truck? Sorry, we have 2. This is where Ford corporate HQ needs to step in and end this traditional nonsense and move on. People no longer are willing to embrace the old dealership paradigm. There needs to be a wholesale movement away from the dinosaur dealer system to something easier, comfortable to the buyer, and less fraught with dishonesty. It's starting, Tesla proved it can be done, and it's not going to go away. If traditional dealers aren't willing to put the MME on their lots, they'll lose those sales to someone who is interested in selling the car. Set up a maintenance center to work on the cars and have a small internet sales delivery office. Let the legacy dealers fight over the scraps of a dying breed of buyers.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
7 Posts
OK, time for version 5!

The latest news today from Ford employees, including in Cuautitlan, confirmed some new key dates and other information:
  • Job 1 is now September 28
  • Mass production 1 will be FCTP and company cars
  • Mass production 2 will begin about a month later and will be customer units and dealer stock
  • All First Editions to be built by last week of October, if possible
  • Time table from the day your vin is built to arrival at dealer 3-4 weeks
  • OK to buy (date customer units expected at dealers in US) is now November 23
  • Assembly line rate at full production 1,300 per week and Dearborn wants them to hit it!
  • Important corollary: Dearborn wants nothing shipped with anything to fix. Farley has a no excuse policy.
  • Final date for conversion of First Edition reservations has slipped again to 8/14
  • As far as we know, Mach E production scheduling still begins August 20
  • We've heard Dutch delivery dates around the end of February
I've separated Run 1 into Job #1, FEs, and the rest of MP 2.

Job #1:
At least 2,000 cars will be produced. This includes all of the FCTP units as well as company orders. Company orders include units for final testing as well as executive orders. We know that there will be at least 2,000 units for FCTP. Let's assume 500 more. Presumably EU/UK needs dealer units, so let's still figure 500 there. Under full production of 1,300 per week that's over 2 weeks. However, we should assume slow production, so maybe 3 weeks?

First Editions:
@trutolife27's intel on the other Forum says "The goal is to (try) to have all the first edition built by last week of October." That's perhaps 3,000 cars. I realize not all reservations will be converted to FE orders but I think conversion will be high. We also don't have confirmation it's 3,000. If we expect 1,000 per week (close to full production), that's 3 weeks. There are only 5 weeks between September 28 and October 30, or 6,500 cars at full production. So maybe they can get out all of Job #1 and the FEs in 5 weeks. Maybe. I'm going to assume Job #1 + First Editions will take 6 weeks. That gets all of the North American First Editions out by the last week of October, which may be what they meant.

Mass Production 2:
Pulling the above two out, this leaves 7 weeks at full production. That's up to 9,100 units. The real question is still how many units are destined for EU/UK. A full Roll-on/Roll-off ship takes about 8,000 vehicles. That would be the almost of the remainder and gets very few Premiums or other non-FE customer units to North America. I doubt that is their plan. I'll again assume 1/2 to NA and 1/2 to EU/UK. I'll also assume full production throughput of vehicles.

Line capacity is now over the needed 50,000 if we assume full production to the end.
View attachment 2178


Percentages:
We have a few more orders, but still only about 1% of possible orders out there. I don't know if that makes for a valid sample but it's getting close. Selects are up but otherwise no real change and no reason to change assumptions.
View attachment 2179


v5 Guesstimate
This brings us to the important table:
View attachment 2177


For North America, we'll assume 4 weeks delivery time (close locations earlier), meaning that by
  • November 20 dealers should have their demos
  • November 27 First Editions should be delivered
  • December 18 should be delivery of
    • 4,000 Premiums
    • 200 Selects and
    • 400 CA Route 1s
This is a little above the high end of the estimate from @trutolife27's contact in Cuautitlan:
"My guess is 3000 to 5,000 shipped and on the lot and sold by end of December."
So reality may be lower if production doesn't meet my assumptions.

Producing the EU/UK models other than First Editions would occur at the end, giving 10 weeks to deliver them to their destinations.

What US Reservation Numbers get cars in 2020?
Now I'll go out on a limb I haven't ventured onto before: reservation numbers. We know that there were reservation numbers up into the 80,000s just before orders opened. 50,000 are being produced and orders are still being taken. Let's assume 50% of potential reservation numbers result in orders. This includes reservation numbers not assigned and reservations not converted.

60% of cars go to EU/UK, 40% to NA. That means, for example, that if 10,000 cars are produced, 4,000 US customers get cars. That means 4,000 cars means 10,000 reservation numbers.

Assuming 30% GTs in the US, the 4,000 is actually 5,200 so that brings us to 11,200 reservation numbers. But if only 50% of potential reservation numbers result in orders, that will be doubled to 22,400. Finally, reservation numbers started at 4,000. This means that US reservations up to around 25,000 might be delivered in 2020. We'll consider the First Editions (1000), Selects (200), and CA Route 1s (400) to be noise in this calculation, considering the huge assumptions. Converting that into the more meaningful reservation timestamps, that probably means any reservation made in November has a good chance of being delivered in 2020.

Now don't shoot me if we don't reach res# 20,000! There are lots of assumptions that probably don't hold. Eager people make early reservations, so they probably convert at a higher rate. if @trutolife27's contact is right with the 3,000-5,000 estimate and slow production brings us in at the low end of that scale, 2,000 Premiums becomes 2,600, becomes 5,600, becomes 11,200, becomes about 15,000, so reservations through ~ November 19.

I'm sure I have some math errors and you can definitely find holes in my assumptions. Thoughts?
Any word if Mach E production scheduling began August 20 as planned?
 

·
Registered
2016 Nissan Leaf, 2021 Mustang Mach-E First Edition reserved
Joined
·
893 Posts
Discussion Starter #75
Any word if Mach E production scheduling began August 20 as planned?
No word on that. We do know Ford is opening up some additional First Edition opportunities and some early line production for executives, etc. is running slowly now -- like 20/day. It's a slow warmup. They're still a month out from planned first production of FCTP units. Hopefully they'll hit their stride by then. However, we're getting information now that it production in 2020 may be well under the earlier 10,000 estimate.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
7 Posts
Thank you for the update. My order number is in the 9,000's, so I'm watching the production news closely. Your earlier post was the first glimmer of hope that I might get delivery this year.
 

·
Super Moderator
Joined
·
1,004 Posts
No word on that. We do know Ford is opening up some additional First Edition opportunities and some early line production for executives, etc. is running slowly now -- like 20/day. It's a slow warmup. They're still a month out from planned first production of FCTP units. Hopefully they'll hit their stride by then. However, we're getting information now that it production in 2020 may be well under the earlier 10,000 estimate.
What information are you seeing that leads you to believe production under 10k?

Unless there are supply constraints, why would they run the line so slowly? That plant can churn 4000+ vehicles a week at full production, so 2,600 with two shifts. With 2/3 production starting end-September, you are talking 21,000+ by end-November (8 weeks at 2/3 production)

It is not cost-efficient to keep stopping the line. We are missing something big here, the numbers aren’t adding up.
 

·
Premium Member
2018 Fusion Energi Burgundy Velvet Platinum
Joined
·
693 Posts
What information are you seeing that leads you to believe production under 10k?

Unless there are supply constraints, why would they run the line so slowly? That plant can churn 4000+ vehicles a week at full production, so 2,600 with two shifts. With 2/3 production starting end-September, you are talking 21,000+ by end-November (8 weeks at 2/3 production)

It is not cost-efficient to keep stopping the line. We are missing something big here, the numbers aren’t adding up.
At those numbers, 40+% of the first year would not go to reservation holders (customers). That would not be a smart move for Ford with tens (hundreds) of thousands on order and maybe 5500 or so go to those who put in a reservation in the first 72 hours last November. I hope not.
 

·
Registered
2016 Nissan Leaf, 2021 Mustang Mach-E First Edition reserved
Joined
·
893 Posts
Discussion Starter #79
What information are you seeing that leads you to believe production under 10k?

Unless there are supply constraints, why would they run the line so slowly? That plant can churn 4000+ vehicles a week at full production, so 2,600 with two shifts. With 2/3 production starting end-September, you are talking 21,000+ by end-November (8 weeks at 2/3 production)

It is not cost-efficient to keep stopping the line. We are missing something big here, the numbers aren’t adding up.
It came from an engineer in Cuautitlan who’s seeing how the line is progressing now. While hw originally was talking 1300 per week, he dropped his estimate to 10,000 by the end of the year and now lower.
 

·
Super Moderator
Joined
·
1,004 Posts
At those numbers, 40+% of the first year would not go to reservation holders (customers). That would not be a smart move for Ford with tens (hundreds) of thousands on order and maybe 5500 or so go to those who put in a reservation in the first 72 hours last November. I hope not.
my point is: under 10,000 seems low compared to what the factory is capable of. Unless they are only running one shift for health reasons it makes little sense to me (reports are two shifts).

Of the estimated 83,000 reservations and non-US pre-orders, i get via a SWAG* about 25k orders to date. The factory running with two shifts could easily produce these before the end of the year.

Because of the lack of information coming from Ford, I can only think of one reason for this delay: Ford is writing-off 2020 as a loss year, and would rather count the majority of the MMe sales as 2021 Q1 income.

As for production order: my belief is non-committed reservations are irrelevant in a production window. Order scheduling priority should only be for committed orders in each window. Why shouldn’t a customer willing to put money down on a order now take precedence over an unknown sale of a non-converted reservation? Am I off-base with this?

*SWAG calculation: Total reservation estimate 83000, minus 4000 (the assumed pre-consumer number) is 79,000. Subtract the estimated 35% GT reservations = 51,350 non-GT reservations.
Taking into account the financial landscape, the fact reservations are good through December, and cancellations, I chose a very conservative 25% conversion rate to date. That’s 12.8k estimated orders, not including non-US orders, or US orders after reservations closed. With a SWAG, we double this number to include those orders, and we get about 25k orders to date.
 
61 - 80 of 97 Posts
Top