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Discussion Starter #81
my point is: under 10,000 seems low compared to what the factory is capable of. Unless they are only running one shift for health reasons it makes little sense to me (reports are two shifts).

Of the estimated 83,000 reservations and non-US pre-orders, i get via a SWAG* about 25k orders to date. The factory running with two shifts could easily produce these before the end of the year.

Because of the lack of information coming from Ford, I can only think of one reason for this delay: Ford is writing-off 2020 as a loss year, and would rather count the majority of the MMe sales as 2021 Q1 income.

As for production order: my belief is non-committed reservations are irrelevant in a production window. Order scheduling priority should only be for committed orders in each window. Why shouldn’t a customer willing to put money down on a order now take precedence over an unknown sale of a non-converted reservation? Am I off-base with this?

*SWAG calculation: Total reservation estimate 83000, minus 4000 (the assumed pre-consumer number) is 79,000. Subtract the estimated 35% GT reservations = 51,350 non-GT reservations.
Taking into account the financial landscape, the fact reservations are good through December, and cancellations, I chose a very conservative 25% conversion rate to date. That’s 12.8k estimated orders, not including non-US orders, or US orders after reservations closed. With a SWAG, we double this number to include those orders, and we get about 25k orders to date.
I agree that's really slow for the plant. I'm just reporting what I've heard from another Forum member's contact in Cuautitlan.

As for your SWAG, you have to consider that Ford hasn't started converting all those EU/UK reservations yet. They account for lots of cars.

I'm with you on non-committed orders. They've had their chance to convert and haven't done so yet. That slides those behind everyone who has converted. They still have until 12/31 but then the close completely runs out.
 

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Discussion Starter #82 (Edited)
OK, time for version 6.

The changes are focused mostly on two things:
The 2021 end game: how many Mach Es can be made and by when (This post)
More delivery vs reservation details (next post)

Part of this comes from the great intel from @trutolife27 and inside source. This includes the belief by Ford that there are actually far more orders coming in, perhaps 70,000 and they plan to fill them.

With the plan for no C-shift, increased production is reached by increased time. Instead of ending Run 3 on 30 July, it has to be extended to 12 Nov. 2021, assuming a solid 1,300 per week production. That reaches 70,200 cars and a six-week buffer if they have to run long before hitting the 2021 Christmas break and end of legal 2021 production (31 Dec.). To reach the mentioned 80,000 requires 7-8 more weeks or faster production.

2387


2388
 

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Discussion Starter #83
Now let's model out some delivery vs reservation details for North American Cars.

Ford now is saying dealers will have FCTP cars in stores in late November. The official FCTP order information stated shipping late November. We've also had multiple sources confirm a 23 November OKTB schedule. This gives us three options:
  1. Ford moves up OKTB to late October/Early November
  2. Ford ships FCTP vehicles before OKTB on 23 Nov.
  3. Ford ships FCTP at OKTB date and FCTP vehicles arrive late December (pushing FEs to January)
Let's be optimistic and assume (1) or (2), with FCTP shipped in early November for cars in stores for Thanksgiving weekend. Let's also assume First Editions go as soon as they are ready, arriving early December, with Premiums following right after. Let's also assume cars are shipped pretty quickly after production (as fast as they can fill train cars to distribution locations) with a four week delivery.

FCTP: By the end of November, all FCTP are delivered.
FE: By 11 December all FEs are delivered.
Others: That gives 2-1/2 weeks worth of Premiums, perhaps 3,200 cars, that may be delivered before the end of 2020. The rest of the MP2 run for North America is another 800 premiums and the Selects and CA Route 1s. Additional NA cars wait until Run 2 in January as the rest of Run 1 goes to EU/UK.

My most optimistic prediction has 2020 deliveries of:
All FCTP
ALL FE
3,200 Premiums.

We can assume 35% GTs, 15% FEs, so reservation holders up to 10,400 to perhaps 20,000 get cars in 2020 depending mostly on the ratio of NA to EU/UK cars in that first week of reservations. That means reservations made between the reveal on 11/17 and 11/19 will likely get their cars in 2020, maybe even those who reserved up until about 11/25.

If my guesses are right and production starts back up 11 January and production is divided 60/40 EU/NA, then by July the first 50,000 come out with NA deliveries continuing about 4 weeks after production. That should cover reservations through April or May plus all the GTs. After the GTs are produced, the last reservations and direct buyers (no reservation) arrive through the end of the year.
 

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Discussion Starter #84
Now let's model out some delivery vs reservation details for North American Cars.

Ford now is saying dealers will have FCTP cars in stores in late November. The official FCTP order information stated shipping late November. We've also had multiple sources confirm a 23 November OKTB schedule. This gives us three options:
  1. Ford moves up OKTB to late October/Early November
  2. Ford ships FCTP vehicles before OKTB on 23 Nov.
  3. Ford ships FCTP at OKTB date and FCTP vehicles arrive late December (pushing FEs to January)
Let's be optimistic and assume (1) or (2), with FCTP shipped in early November for cars in stores for Thanksgiving weekend. Let's also assume First Editions go as soon as they are ready, arriving early December, with Premiums following right after. Let's also assume cars are shipped pretty quickly after production (as fast as they can fill train cars to distribution locations) with a four week delivery.

FCTP: By the end of November, all FCTP are delivered.
FE: By 11 December all FEs are delivered.
Others: That gives 2-1/2 weeks worth of Premiums, perhaps 3,200 cars, that may be delivered before the end of 2020. The rest of the MP2 run for North America is another 800 premiums and the Selects and CA Route 1s. Additional NA cars wait until Run 2 in January as the rest of Run 1 goes to EU/UK.

My most optimistic prediction has 2020 deliveries of:
All FCTP
ALL FE
3,200 Premiums.

We can assume 35% GTs, 15% FEs, so reservation holders up to 10,400 to perhaps 20,000 get cars in 2020 depending mostly on the ratio of NA to EU/UK cars in that first week of reservations. That means reservations made between the reveal on 11/17 and 11/19 will likely get their cars in 2020, maybe even those who reserved up until about 11/25.

If my guesses are right and production starts back up 11 January and production is divided 60/40 EU/NA, then by July the first 50,000 come out with NA deliveries continuing about 4 weeks after production. That should cover reservations through April or May plus all the GTs. After the GTs are produced, the last reservations and direct buyers (no reservation) arrive through the end of the year.
BTW, intel since I put this together indicates that we are likely to see option #1
  • Ford moves up OKTB to late October/Early November
 

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OK, time for version 6.

The changes are focused mostly on two things:
The 2021 end game: how many Mach Es can be made and by when (This post)
More delivery vs reservation details (next post)

Part of this comes from the great intel from @trutolife27 and inside source. This includes the belief by Ford that there are actually far more orders coming in, perhaps 70,000 and they plan to fill them (see https://www.macheclub.com/site/thr...engineering-friends-in-mexico.1100/post-31714 and https://www.macheclub.com/site/thr...engineering-friends-in-mexico.1100/post-31808)

With the plan for no C-shift, increased production is reached by increased time. Instead of ending Run 3 on 30 July, it has to be extended to 12 Nov. 2021, assuming a solid 1,300 per week production. That reaches 70,200 cars and a six-week buffer if they have to run long before hitting the 2021 Christmas break and end of legal 2021 production (31 Dec.). To reach the mentioned 80,000 requires 7-8 more weeks or faster production.

View attachment 2387

View attachment 2388
Really nice work. Thanks!
 

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Now let's model out some delivery vs reservation details for North American Cars.

Ford now is saying dealers will have FCTP cars in stores in late November. The official FCTP order information stated shipping late November. We've also had multiple sources confirm a 23 November OKTB schedule. This gives us three options:
  1. Ford moves up OKTB to late October/Early November
  2. Ford ships FCTP vehicles before OKTB on 23 Nov.
  3. Ford ships FCTP at OKTB date and FCTP vehicles arrive late December (pushing FEs to January)
Let's be optimistic and assume (1) or (2), with FCTP shipped in early November for cars in stores for Thanksgiving weekend. Let's also assume First Editions go as soon as they are ready, arriving early December, with Premiums following right after. Let's also assume cars are shipped pretty quickly after production (as fast as they can fill train cars to distribution locations) with a four week delivery.

FCTP: By the end of November, all FCTP are delivered.
FE: By 11 December all FEs are delivered.
Others: That gives 2-1/2 weeks worth of Premiums, perhaps 3,200 cars, that may be delivered before the end of 2020. The rest of the MP2 run for North America is another 800 premiums and the Selects and CA Route 1s. Additional NA cars wait until Run 2 in January as the rest of Run 1 goes to EU/UK.

My most optimistic prediction has 2020 deliveries of:
All FCTP
ALL FE
3,200 Premiums.

We can assume 35% GTs, 15% FEs, so reservation holders up to 10,400 to perhaps 20,000 get cars in 2020 depending mostly on the ratio of NA to EU/UK cars in that first week of reservations. That means reservations made between the reveal on 11/17 and 11/19 will likely get their cars in 2020, maybe even those who reserved up until about 11/25.

If my guesses are right and production starts back up 11 January and production is divided 60/40 EU/NA, then by July the first 50,000 come out with NA deliveries continuing about 4 weeks after production. That should cover reservations through April or May plus all the GTs. After the GTs are produced, the last reservations and direct buyers (no reservation) arrive through the end of the year.
Thanks for the excellent breakdown!
 

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Now let's model out some delivery vs reservation details for North American Cars.

Ford now is saying dealers will have FCTP cars in stores in late November. The official FCTP order information stated shipping late November. We've also had multiple sources confirm a 23 November OKTB schedule. This gives us three options:
  1. Ford moves up OKTB to late October/Early November
  2. Ford ships FCTP vehicles before OKTB on 23 Nov.
  3. Ford ships FCTP at OKTB date and FCTP vehicles arrive late December (pushing FEs to January)
Let's be optimistic and assume (1) or (2), with FCTP shipped in early November for cars in stores for Thanksgiving weekend. Let's also assume First Editions go as soon as they are ready, arriving early December, with Premiums following right after. Let's also assume cars are shipped pretty quickly after production (as fast as they can fill train cars to distribution locations) with a four week delivery.

FCTP: By the end of November, all FCTP are delivered.
FE: By 11 December all FEs are delivered.
Others: That gives 2-1/2 weeks worth of Premiums, perhaps 3,200 cars, that may be delivered before the end of 2020. The rest of the MP2 run for North America is another 800 premiums and the Selects and CA Route 1s. Additional NA cars wait until Run 2 in January as the rest of Run 1 goes to EU/UK.

My most optimistic prediction has 2020 deliveries of:
All FCTP
ALL FE
3,200 Premiums.

We can assume 35% GTs, 15% FEs, so reservation holders up to 10,400 to perhaps 20,000 get cars in 2020 depending mostly on the ratio of NA to EU/UK cars in that first week of reservations. That means reservations made between the reveal on 11/17 and 11/19 will likely get their cars in 2020, maybe even those who reserved up until about 11/25.

If my guesses are right and production starts back up 11 January and production is divided 60/40 EU/NA, then by July the first 50,000 come out with NA deliveries continuing about 4 weeks after production. That should cover reservations through April or May plus all the GTs. After the GTs are produced, the last reservations and direct buyers (no reservation) arrive through the end of the year.
Looking at July 2021 for the first 50K vehicles unless Ford adopts the Tesla model of not assigning a model year to their vehicles, other manufacturers will be unveiling the 2022 models of their vehicles. It will be interesting to see at what point if any Ford changes the model year designation. Frankly, if the MMe is essentially the same except for over the air updates, assigning a model year designation isn't relevant but could be detrimental to resale. Referring to another Thread: ' What would cause you to cancel your order', I would not want to pay MSRP for a vehicle that becomes last years model in 30 to 60 days after purchase.
 

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Now let's model out some delivery vs reservation details for North American Cars.

Ford now is saying dealers will have FCTP cars in stores in late November. The official FCTP order information stated shipping late November. We've also had multiple sources confirm a 23 November OKTB schedule. This gives us three options:
  1. Ford moves up OKTB to late October/Early November
  2. Ford ships FCTP vehicles before OKTB on 23 Nov.
  3. Ford ships FCTP at OKTB date and FCTP vehicles arrive late December (pushing FEs to January)
Let's be optimistic and assume (1) or (2), with FCTP shipped in early November for cars in stores for Thanksgiving weekend. Let's also assume First Editions go as soon as they are ready, arriving early December, with Premiums following right after. Let's also assume cars are shipped pretty quickly after production (as fast as they can fill train cars to distribution locations) with a four week delivery.

FCTP: By the end of November, all FCTP are delivered.
FE: By 11 December all FEs are delivered.
Others: That gives 2-1/2 weeks worth of Premiums, perhaps 3,200 cars, that may be delivered before the end of 2020. The rest of the MP2 run for North America is another 800 premiums and the Selects and CA Route 1s. Additional NA cars wait until Run 2 in January as the rest of Run 1 goes to EU/UK.

My most optimistic prediction has 2020 deliveries of:
All FCTP
ALL FE
3,200 Premiums.

We can assume 35% GTs, 15% FEs, so reservation holders up to 10,400 to perhaps 20,000 get cars in 2020 depending mostly on the ratio of NA to EU/UK cars in that first week of reservations. That means reservations made between the reveal on 11/17 and 11/19 will likely get their cars in 2020, maybe even those who reserved up until about 11/25.

If my guesses are right and production starts back up 11 January and production is divided 60/40 EU/NA, then by July the first 50,000 come out with NA deliveries continuing about 4 weeks after production. That should cover reservations through April or May plus all the GTs. After the GTs are produced, the last reservations and direct buyers (no reservation) arrive through the end of the year.
Oh deary me... !. So as UK buyer who placed order first week of the year you appear to be suggesting delivery deep into 2021 - very late spring or more like summer.
How very different from the visit to a local dealer presenetation in February (and to see car in person) when they were confidently predicting latest October this year.
I know a lot of extraordinary stuff has happened this year. But other on time options are available and that sound you hear is me getting up to get my hat and coat and moving on.
 

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Oh deary me... !. So as UK buyer who placed order first week of the year you appear to be suggesting delivery deep into 2021 - very late spring or more like summer.
How very different from the visit to a local dealer presenetation in February (and to see car in person) when they were confidently predicting latest October this year.
I know a lot of extraordinary stuff has happened this year. But other on time options are available and that sound you hear is me getting up to get my hat and coat and moving on.
I think production will be a mixed bag US/Europe orders, based on component availability. Where we all stand in line is anyone's guess.

Suffice-to-say, Mustang Mach-E sightings on the roads will be rare for quite some time.
 

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Oh deary me... !. So as UK buyer who placed order first week of the year you appear to be suggesting delivery deep into 2021 - very late spring or more like summer.
How very different from the visit to a local dealer presenetation in February (and to see car in person) when they were confidently predicting latest October this year.
I know a lot of extraordinary stuff has happened this year. But other on time options are available and that sound you hear is me getting up to get my hat and coat and moving on.
I suggest you do not make a decision based on the pure speculation you are reading in this forum. It would be more prudent to wait for Ford to actually announce the delivery schedule before deciding whether it fits your needs or not.
 

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Many exciting new vehicles from many companies have been promised, and none are actually available. Until we see a car (or truck) arriving at the lot, they're all vapour vehicles. Some more so than others - see Nikola. If getting an actual vehicle soon is important, there is one significant option, and that's Tesla. There will be a number who tire of the wait.
 

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Discussion Starter #94
Many exciting new vehicles from many companies have been promised, and none are actually available. Until we see a car (or truck) arriving at the lot, they're all vapour vehicles. Some more so than others - see Nikola. If getting an actual vehicle soon is important, there is one significant option, and that's Tesla. There will be a number who tire of the wait.
Some very vapor. Did you read this on Nikola?

Nikola's Founder Is Again Trying To Tweet Through It
 

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I suggest you do not make a decision based on the pure speculation you are reading in this forum. It would be more prudent to wait for Ford to actually announce the delivery schedule before deciding whether it fits your needs or not.
Here's all we know about the deliveries: Deliveries are delayed from what we were told prior to the pandemic.

Everything else is speculation, guesses, or an educated guess. Hopefully, an official schedule will come out soon or more people who actually need a new vehicle will be moving on.
 

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OK, time for version 6.

The changes are focused mostly on two things:
The 2021 end game: how many Mach Es can be made and by when (This post)
More delivery vs reservation details (next post)

Part of this comes from the great intel from @trutolife27 and inside source. This includes the belief by Ford that there are actually far more orders coming in, perhaps 70,000 and they plan to fill them (see https://www.macheclub.com/site/thr...engineering-friends-in-mexico.1100/post-31714 and https://www.macheclub.com/site/thr...engineering-friends-in-mexico.1100/post-31808)

With the plan for no C-shift, increased production is reached by increased time. Instead of ending Run 3 on 30 July, it has to be extended to 12 Nov. 2021, assuming a solid 1,300 per week production. That reaches 70,200 cars and a six-week buffer if they have to run long before hitting the 2021 Christmas break and end of legal 2021 production (31 Dec.). To reach the mentioned 80,000 requires 7-8 more weeks or faster production.
Are those solid numbers and do you have any knowledge how they align with current confirmed orders. Example; Premium confirmed orders relative to the 10,000 production schedule 2020?
Your links are dead to me; possible edit?
 

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Discussion Starter #97
Are those solid numbers and do you have any knowledge how they align with current confirmed orders. Example; Premium confirmed orders relative to the 10,000 production schedule 2020?
Your links are dead to me; possible edit?
The important links (tables) are showing up for me. There were a couple of links I removed because they pointed to posts outside the Mach E Club forum and the forum automatically broke them by trying to make them internal links.

Are these solid numbers? They are the best we've been able to come up with. Start at the top of this thread and work through my 6 versions to see where they come from if you want to check the sources. Ditto on how reservation numbers align with confirmed orders.
 
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