2016 Nissan Leaf, 2021 Mustang Mach-E First Edition reserved
I agree that's really slow for the plant. I'm just reporting what I've heard from another Forum member's contact in Cuautitlan.my point is: under 10,000 seems low compared to what the factory is capable of. Unless they are only running one shift for health reasons it makes little sense to me (reports are two shifts).
Of the estimated 83,000 reservations and non-US pre-orders, i get via a SWAG* about 25k orders to date. The factory running with two shifts could easily produce these before the end of the year.
Because of the lack of information coming from Ford, I can only think of one reason for this delay: Ford is writing-off 2020 as a loss year, and would rather count the majority of the MMe sales as 2021 Q1 income.
As for production order: my belief is non-committed reservations are irrelevant in a production window. Order scheduling priority should only be for committed orders in each window. Why shouldn’t a customer willing to put money down on a order now take precedence over an unknown sale of a non-converted reservation? Am I off-base with this?
*SWAG calculation: Total reservation estimate 83000, minus 4000 (the assumed pre-consumer number) is 79,000. Subtract the estimated 35% GT reservations = 51,350 non-GT reservations.
Taking into account the financial landscape, the fact reservations are good through December, and cancellations, I chose a very conservative 25% conversion rate to date. That’s 12.8k estimated orders, not including non-US orders, or US orders after reservations closed. With a SWAG, we double this number to include those orders, and we get about 25k orders to date.
As for your SWAG, you have to consider that Ford hasn't started converting all those EU/UK reservations yet. They account for lots of cars.
I'm with you on non-committed orders. They've had their chance to convert and haven't done so yet. That slides those behind everyone who has converted. They still have until 12/31 but then the close completely runs out.