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Discussion Starter #121
If my memory is correct, which isn't all that likely, this was the first week that production was supposed to start in Mexico.

Do you know if that happened?
Yes, the Cuautitlan plant is in production at a slow rate but accelerating.

Mass Production 1 (MP1) is already happening and is primarily (or solely) FCTP and executive cars. That includes a very special first First Edition in Rapid Red for someone in the Dearborn area.

MP2 is due to start 26 October, beginning with the FEs but may have some others mixed in. The only date we've seen for OKTB is 23 November. I hope OKTB will be moved up but indications have been that it will not. It has also been clearly stated on the other Forum that no vehicles for sale (includes FCTP) will ship before OKTB. Ready to ship, yes. Ship, no.

I think my v6 guesstimate is still running fairly true. Remember we learned that of the three options:
  1. Ford moves up OKTB to late October/Early November
  2. Ford ships FCTP vehicles before OKTB on 23 Nov.
  3. Ford ships FCTP at OKTB date and FCTP vehicles arrive in December (pushing FEs to January)
So, Option 2 is off the table. We hope Option 1 will happen but Option 3 is far more likely. Our big hope for 2020 deliveries of Premium customer units is that shipping is much faster than 4 weeks. IIRC we heard 2-3 weeks. First Editions still look to be arriving in late 2020.
 

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Yes, the Cuautitlan plant is in production at a slow rate but accelerating.

Mass Production 1 (MP1) is already happening and is primarily (or solely) FCTP and executive cars. That includes a very special first First Edition in Rapid Red for someone in the Dearborn area.

MP2 is due to start 26 October, beginning with the FEs but may have some others mixed in. The only date we've seen for OKTB is 23 November. I hope OKTB will be moved up but indications have been that it will not. It has also been clearly stated on the other Forum that no vehicles for sale (includes FCTP) will ship before OKTB. Ready to ship, yes. Ship, no.

I think my v6 guesstimate is still running fairly true. Remember we learned that of the three options:
  1. Ford moves up OKTB to late October/Early November
  2. Ford ships FCTP vehicles before OKTB on 23 Nov.
  3. Ford ships FCTP at OKTB date and FCTP vehicles arrive in December (pushing FEs to January)
So, Option 2 is off the table. We hope Option 1 will happen but Option 3 is far more likely. Our big hope for 2020 deliveries of Premium customer units is that shipping is much faster than 4 weeks. IIRC we heard 2-3 weeks. First Editions still look to be arriving in late 2020.
Thanks again for the complete reply.

I don't know much about this (obviously?), so can you elucidate on what factors Ford considers when setting the OKTB date? I don't understand what they gain by waiting?
 

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Thanks again for the complete reply.

I don't know much about this (obviously?), so can you elucidate on what factors Ford considers when setting the OKTB date? I don't understand what they gain by waiting?
Is OKTB an internal decision, or is it a NHTSA review to ensure it meets regulatory standards?
 

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Sounds like I'm the last to reserve a GT. With a reservation of 10412*** I won't be getting it until Q4 2021
 

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Is OKTB an internal decision, or is it a NHTSA review to ensure it meets regulatory standards?
Both as I understand it. It needs to pass all regulatory reviews but also Ford’s own internal quality control checks. They want no repeat of shipping cars and having to do recalls as happened in the non too distant past.
 

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Both as I understand it. It needs to pass all regulatory reviews but also Ford’s own internal quality control checks. They want no repeat of shipping cars and having to do recalls as happened in the non too distant past.
But these cars are already built.

Surely all the checks were done prior to volunteer manufacture?
 

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But these cars are already built.

Surely all the checks were done prior to volunteer manufacture?
Doesn't matter. Every manufacturer does this prior to launch, here is a comment from a Ford employee in the other forum.

OKTB is the have to make a certian amount of units and then they are inspected and have to pass.

Government people will visit and units that are complete taken apart. Everything back do to the smallest piece they check. The welds, rivets, the seale,r proper squeeze out,spack nuts, studs for seat belts and so much. It all has to be entered into a data base. One for safety. Two if there ever is a problem its the manufactures ass.

After that the weld inspectors or joint inspectors will have to tear down so many units each week to check quality. Its such a big process. I remember when I was in Michigan on the navigator launch after we was done with whole units the contractors would just smash the units. Some even with just fork lifts then haul off in closed semi truck to be scraped.
 

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Discussion Starter #130
European delivery is being scheduled as well. Got email from dealer indicating build 11.23.2020.
Getting exited😄
Maybe if it's a First Edition. That just happens to be the OKTB date. To start production of EU/UK cars that early means they would have to interleave NA and EU/UK cars or stop NA production after only about 1,000 Premiums. I don't think there will be a large production of non-First Edition cars for EU/UK in 2020. My new guesstimates are coming right up.
 

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Discussion Starter #131
I haven't run an update for a while, mainly because there hasn't been enough new information to do so. However, I think it's worth taking another look and releasing v.7.

We've also still multiple sources confirm both 26 October start for FEs and 23 November OKTB schedule. Of course, sources in Cuautitlan also said they are running 4 days behind schedule. If there's a break scheduled between FCTP and FE production, they might get back on schedule. They also confirmed Ford will not ship FCTP vehicles before OKTB.

This gives us two options:
  1. Ford ships FCTP and FEs at OKTB date. If we assume the dealers are right about a 2-3 week delivery time, FCTP vehicles and arrive mid-December with FEs arriving right behind them (same time for some dealers). All FCTP and FEs arrive at dealers in December.
  2. Ford moves up OKTB (we have no information suggesting this will happen but continue to hope 😬
Other changes:
  • No FCTP cars being made for EU/UK until later. Besides, Ford-Europe is allowing test drives during their ongoing event, so let's assume no FCTP for there now.
  • I tossed in 10 FEs in the FCTP as part of the executive orders. We know a Rapid Red has already been built for someone (last name might be Ford).
  • We still don't know exactly how many FEs are being built. We've heard 3,000 but we don't know if that's 3,000 for NA or global.
    • Currently the NA orders are 15% FE. Assuming the initial 20,000 NA cars, that's 3,000 -- hmmm.
    • We also don't have any reason to believe the 60/40 EU/US split applies to FEs. Let's just go with 3,000 NA FEs produced now, and 1,500 for EU/UK by the end of the year.
  • Demand is high. I'm going to shift my assumption of slower production of FEs and go to a 1,000 car per week rate during FE production (probably optimistic) and then the full 1,300 once they shift to Premiums, etc.
  • All currently reserved CA Route 1s will be made up front along with the first batch of Premiums. They only account for 3% of orders so far, so it's best to do them all at once.
  • Promises of February deliveries of some EU/UK cars still means some of those will be produced in 2020. However, if Ford shifts those delivery dates into March, it means they will be producing more NA cars in 2020. Based on the latest emails to UK buyers, I'll go out on a limb and say they are only going to make a week's worth of EU/UK cars in 2020 to test the line. Orders aren't being confirmed until the end of November, that really means scheduling parts will be planning for January's production. Production in December will be all the FEs and a limited number of the others.
So, the Line Capacity is adjusted to:
2645



The percentages (based on order tracking through today) are:
2646



And Production Runs are:
2647


Don't pay close attention to numbers in 2021. I haven't made any changes in there other than the automatic ones that kick in by moving around production in 2020, and the assumption that Ford decides to finish all non-GT NA pre-orders by April.

Separate post coming next: Delivery and reservation number guesses.
 

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Discussion Starter #132
OK, based on v7 Guesstimates (Production runs & line output guesstimates) here are my guesstimates on delivery and reservation/order numbers reached.

I'm going with the optimistic 2-3 weeks for delivery that has come from multiple dealers. This is one of the few things I trust them on. They've ordered lots of cars. Yes, most have come from Michigan but Ford's been building cars in Mexico for a while now and that shouldn't add a whole lot more time.

I'll be realistic and assume Ford sticks with the 23 November OKTB date. What will be stacked up in the lot on 23 November?
2,300 FCTP cars, mostly the 1800 Premiums (I'm assuming those FEs will get special delivery!).
3,000 First Editions
1,000 + Premiums with maybe a few CA Route 1s and Selects thrown in for line spacing.
Over 6,000 cars.

Let's go with one member's estimate of 500 cars per day loading time. That means it will take 12 days to get those all out, possibly 16 to 18 to be completely caught up as production will continue during that time. I'll assume train loading is a 7-day per week operation.

All FCTPs are moving on trains by 27 November
All FEs are moving on trains by 3 December
FCTPs arrive at dealers from 11-18 December
FEs arrive at dealers from 17-24 December
Premiums and scattered others arrive at dealers starting 18 December.

By the end of the year, I'm guessing North American dealers will have taken delivery of
2,300 FCTP cars, mostly the 1800 Premiums (I'm assuming those FEs will get special delivery!).
3,000 First Editions
5,200 + Premiums and other trims.
Over 10,000 cars.

Reading back over earlier posts and information on EU/UK orders, I don't think they started up as fast as NA orders. Rather than assuming the 60/40 split of planned sales (EU/UK vs NA), let's go with a 50/50 split of early reservations. It may even go 40/60 in the first couple of weeks. We should still assume 35% of the NA orders in the early period are GTs as that's what Ford reported to the press.

Since these are rough assumptions, I'll start with rough numbers:
Of course, reservations began with 4,000.
8,000 Mach Es becomes 16,000 reservation numbers accounting for the half reserved in the EU/UK. The 8,000 are also 35% GTs that won't be made yet, so that's only 5,200 cars to be made.
So, 4,000 + 8,000 + 12,000 = 24,000

I estimate that in 2020, the total number of customer Mach Es to reach dealers may exceed reservation number 24,000 or any order based on a November reservation.
 

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I haven't run an update for a while, mainly because there hasn't been enough new information to do so. However, I think it's worth taking another look and releasing v.7.

We've also still multiple sources confirm both 26 October start for FEs and 23 November OKTB schedule. Of course, sources in Cuautitlan also said they are running 4 days behind schedule. If there's a break scheduled between FCTP and FE production, they might get back on schedule. They also confirmed Ford will not ship FCTP vehicles before OKTB.

This gives us two options:
  1. Ford ships FCTP and FEs at OKTB date. If we assume the dealers are right about a 2-3 week delivery time, FCTP vehicles and arrive mid-December with FEs arriving right behind them (same time for some dealers). All FCTP and FEs arrive at dealers in December.
  2. Ford moves up OKTB (we have no information suggesting this will happen but continue to hope 😬
Other changes:
  • No FCTP cars being made for EU/UK until later. Besides, Ford-Europe is allowing test drives during their ongoing event, so let's assume no FCTP for there now.
  • I tossed in 10 FEs in the FCTP as part of the executive orders. We know a Rapid Red has already been built for someone (last name might be Ford).
  • We still don't know exactly how many FEs are being built. We've heard 3,000 but we don't know if that's 3,000 for NA or global.
    • Currently the NA orders are 15% FE. Assuming the initial 20,000 NA cars, that's 3,000 -- hmmm.
    • We also don't have any reason to believe the 60/40 EU/US split applies to FEs. Let's just go with 3,000 NA FEs produced now, and 1,500 for EU/UK by the end of the year.
  • Demand is high. I'm going to shift my assumption of slower production of FEs and go to a 1,000 car per week rate during FE production (probably optimistic) and then the full 1,300 once they shift to Premiums, etc.
  • All currently reserved CA Route 1s will be made up front along with the first batch of Premiums. They only account for 3% of orders so far, so it's best to do them all at once.
  • Promises of February deliveries of some EU/UK cars still means some of those will be produced in 2020. However, if Ford shifts those delivery dates into March, it means they will be producing more NA cars in 2020. Based on the latest emails to UK buyers, I'll go out on a limb and say they are only going to make a week's worth of EU/UK cars in 2020 to test the line. Orders aren't being confirmed until the end of November, that really means scheduling parts will be planning for January's production. Production in December will be all the FEs and a limited number of the others.
So, the Line Capacity is adjusted to:
View attachment 2645


The percentages (based on order tracking through today) are:
View attachment 2646


And Production Runs are:
View attachment 2647

Don't pay close attention to numbers in 2021. I haven't made any changes in there other than the automatic ones that kick in by moving around production in 2020, and the assumption that Ford decides to finish all non-GT NA pre-orders by April.

Separate post coming next: Delivery and reservation number guesses.
 

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Discussion Starter #134
Well, fellow anxious US Mach E buyers, we have good news and bad news for v.8.
Good news: They haven't used trains at the Cuautitlan plant in 15 years, and word has it they won't for Mach Es either. That means lots of trucks. If they are as nimble with their trucks as the ones that came out of Cuatitlan headed to the Mach E Tour and related stops, they can be at US* dealers within a week. They are also using trucks to send early units to ships bound for Europe right now**.

Bad news: Production is currently slower than I was guessing (these aren't called guesstimates for nothing!). @trutolife27 had warned early production rates starting at 100+ per week. What I hadn't realized is they have only ramped up to about 200-300/week now (per my contact).

Fortunately, things aren't as slow as I feared when I saw a parking lot with 287 cars. That wasn't the total so far, just the shipping backlog at that point -- whew! In fact theog.ho's Instagram post from last week with 287 cars in the lot? They're almost all gone now with one lone car in the lot at the end of today. All out on trucks. Employees are no longer allowed to park in the employee parking lot so the space can be used for Mach Es (someone will have to do a spatial analysis of the parking lots to see how many you think they hold).

That means those FCTP dates in November some of you heard from dealers make sense. However, they are talking about increasing that to double-triple the current rate in a couple of weeks once MP2 is underway. So, we'll estimate 600 cars per week by then. The good news is my contact expects them to reach 1000/week soon if there are no hiccups.

So I'm downgrading my model's throughput to an average of 200/week during MP1 (28 Sept-23 Oct), up to an average of 600 per week in the FCTP completion phase of MP2 (26 Oct-13 Nov.) and reaching 1000 per week once they start on customer orders on 16 Nov. Yes, I realize that it may make sense to interleave FEs in with FCTP cars to mix up the time per unit. However, I have no information on how to model that, so I'm sticking with a simpler model.

v.8 now produces 2,400 cars by 13 November. That should cover all FCTP and some FEs. 5,500 customer cars then are produced during 16 November-23 December. I've heard there's only a 1-week break at Christmas/New Years, so Run 2 has 13 weeks instead of 12.

With the reduced rates in mind, I'll bet they hold off on EU/UK cars until January, although they may run some tests through the line in December to prepare. This drops us to perhaps 5,500 customer units before the end of December. Fortunately, if shipping is reduced to a week, those will all get to dealers before the end of the year.

So, here are the new tables:

2714

(unchanged)

2715

(I'm not adjusting anything in late 2021 for now)

2716

Potential reservation numbers reached in the next post.
The remaining good news is just when I go out on a limb with a new version, we learn new critical information. Fingers crossed it's good news!

*Canadian footnote: I'm assuming you'll get your cars by truck, too and it shouldn't take much longer to get there than US locations.

** European Mach Es may be trucked to the ports
http://instagr.am/p/CGawRLLHXg9/
I don't know that will affect timing much for you.
 

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Discussion Starter #135
OK, based on v8 Guesstimates (https://www.macheclub.com/site/threads/production-runs-line-output-guesstimates.1033/post-46715) here are my guesstimates on delivery and reservation/order numbers reached.

I'm going with the NEW and IMPROVED optimistic 1-2 weeks for delivery that has come from watching the Mach E Tour shipments and news that Cuautitlan doesn't use trains any more.

We'll stick with the 23 November OKTB date.

What will be stacked up in the lot on 23 November?
2,300 FCTP cars, mostly the 1800 Premiums (I'm assuming those FEs will get special delivery!).
1,100 First Editions and probably nothing else. This does improve the odds for my 3 December guess on FE deliveries though!

This drops us to a total of about 2,500 Premiums with maybe a few CA Route 1s and Selects thrown in for line spacing by the end of the year. A total of 5,500 customer orders plus 2,300 FCTP (give or take a few 100).

We'll also assume the trucks will get them all to dealers by the first of the year. Of course, some may be a little late.

Since these are rough assumptions, I'll start with rough numbers:
Of course, reservations began with 4,000.
5,500 Mach Es becomes 11,000 reservation numbers accounting for half reserved in the EU/UK. The 5,500 also include 35% GTs that won't be made yet, so that's only 3,575 cars to be made.
So, 4,000 + 5,500 + 11,000 ~ 20,000

I estimate that in 2020, the total number of customer Mach Es to reach dealers may exceed reservation number 20,000 or most November reservations.
 

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OK, based on v8 Guesstimates (https://www.macheclub.com/site/threads/production-runs-line-output-guesstimates.1033/post-46715) here are my guesstimates on delivery and reservation/order numbers reached.

I'm going with the NEW and IMPROVED optimistic 1-2 weeks for delivery that has come from watching the Mach E Tour shipments and news that Cuautitlan doesn't use trains any more.

We'll stick with the 23 November OKTB date.

What will be stacked up in the lot on 23 November?
2,300 FCTP cars, mostly the 1800 Premiums (I'm assuming those FEs will get special delivery!).
1,100 First Editions and probably nothing else. This does improve the odds for my 3 December guess on FE deliveries though!

This drops us to a total of about 2,500 Premiums with maybe a few CA Route 1s and Selects thrown in for line spacing by the end of the year. A total of 5,500 customer orders plus 2,300 FCTP (give or take a few 100).

We'll also assume the trucks will get them all to dealers by the first of the year. Of course, some may be a little late.

Since these are rough assumptions, I'll start with rough numbers:
Of course, reservations began with 4,000.
5,500 Mach Es becomes 11,000 reservation numbers accounting for half reserved in the EU/UK. The 5,500 also include 35% GTs that won't be made yet, so that's only 3,575 cars to be made.
So, 4,000 + 5,500 + 11,000 ~ 20,000

I estimate that in 2020, the total number of customer Mach Es to reach dealers may exceed reservation number 20,000 or most November reservations.
Makes sense, but you need to add one last assumption: Reservations cancelled or not converted.

What percentage this is? I haven’t the foggiest.
 

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Discussion Starter #137
Makes sense, but you need to add one last assumption: Reservations cancelled or not converted.

What percentage this is? I haven’t the foggiest.
Nor I. There have been some estimates of 85% based on Tesla experiences but that's too squishy for me to figure in.
 

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Well, fellow anxious US Mach E buyers, we have good news and bad news for v.8.
Good news: They haven't used trains at the Cuautitlan plant in 15 years, and word has it they won't for Mach Es either. That means lots of trucks. If they are as nimble with their trucks as the ones that came out of Cuatitlan headed to the Mach E Tour and related stops, they can be at US* dealers within a week. They are also using trucks to send early units to ships bound for Europe right now**.

Bad news: Production is currently slower than I was guessing (these aren't called guesstimates for nothing!). @trutolife27 had warned early production rates starting at 100+ per week. What I hadn't realized is they have only ramped up to about 200-300/week now (per my contact).

Fortunately, things aren't as slow as I feared when I saw a parking lot with 287 cars. That wasn't the total so far, just the shipping backlog at that point -- whew! In fact theog.ho's Instagram post from last week with 287 cars in the lot? They're almost all gone now with one lone car in the lot at the end of today. All out on trucks. Employees are no longer allowed to park in the employee parking lot so the space can be used for Mach Es (someone will have to do a spatial analysis of the parking lots to see how many you think they hold).

That means those FCTP dates in November some of you heard from dealers make sense. However, they are talking about increasing that to double-triple the current rate in a couple of weeks once MP2 is underway. So, we'll estimate 600 cars per week by then. The good news is my contact expects them to reach 1000/week soon if there are no hiccups.

So I'm downgrading my model's throughput to an average of 200/week during MP1 (28 Sept-23 Oct), up to an average of 600 per week in the FCTP completion phase of MP2 (26 Oct-13 Nov.) and reaching 1000 per week once they start on customer orders on 16 Nov. Yes, I realize that it may make sense to interleave FEs in with FCTP cars to mix up the time per unit. However, I have no information on how to model that, so I'm sticking with a simpler model.

v.8 now produces 2,400 cars by 13 November. That should cover all FCTP and some FEs. 5,500 customer cars then are produced during 16 November-23 December. I've heard there's only a 1-week break at Christmas/New Years, so Run 2 has 13 weeks instead of 12.

With the reduced rates in mind, I'll bet they hold off on EU/UK cars until January, although they may run some tests through the line in December to prepare. This drops us to perhaps 5,500 customer units before the end of December. Fortunately, if shipping is reduced to a week, those will all get to dealers before the end of the year.

So, here are the new tables:

View attachment 2714
(unchanged)

View attachment 2715
(I'm not adjusting anything in late 2021 for now)

View attachment 2716
Potential reservation numbers reached in the next post.
The remaining good news is just when I go out on a limb with a new version, we learn new critical information. Fingers crossed it's good news!

*Canadian footnote: I'm assuming you'll get your cars by truck, too and it shouldn't take much longer to get there than US locations.

** European Mach Es may be trucked to the ports
http://instagr.am/p/CGawRLLHXg9/
I don't know that will affect timing much for you.
Any idea what caused the much slower production rate?

Is this worrisome or just normal procedure in the auto industry?
 

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OK, based on v8 Guesstimates (https://www.macheclub.com/site/threads/production-runs-line-output-guesstimates.1033/post-46715) here are my guesstimates on delivery and reservation/order numbers reached.

I'm going with the NEW and IMPROVED optimistic 1-2 weeks for delivery that has come from watching the Mach E Tour shipments and news that Cuautitlan doesn't use trains any more.

We'll stick with the 23 November OKTB date.

What will be stacked up in the lot on 23 November?
2,300 FCTP cars, mostly the 1800 Premiums (I'm assuming those FEs will get special delivery!).
1,100 First Editions and probably nothing else. This does improve the odds for my 3 December guess on FE deliveries though!

This drops us to a total of about 2,500 Premiums with maybe a few CA Route 1s and Selects thrown in for line spacing by the end of the year. A total of 5,500 customer orders plus 2,300 FCTP (give or take a few 100).

We'll also assume the trucks will get them all to dealers by the first of the year. Of course, some may be a little late.

Since these are rough assumptions, I'll start with rough numbers:
Of course, reservations began with 4,000.
5,500 Mach Es becomes 11,000 reservation numbers accounting for half reserved in the EU/UK. The 5,500 also include 35% GTs that won't be made yet, so that's only 3,575 cars to be made.
So, 4,000 + 5,500 + 11,000 ~ 20,000

I estimate that in 2020, the total number of customer Mach Es to reach dealers may exceed reservation number 20,000 or most November reservations.
Thank you for the excellent report!
 

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Discussion Starter #140
Any idea what caused the much slower production rate?

Is this worrisome or just normal procedure in the auto industry?
From what I've heard from experts in the industry, this is not unusual for a brand new vehicle and this one is really different!
 
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