Mach-E Forum | Ford Mustang Mach-E Forum and News banner

1 - 13 of 13 Posts

·
Registered
Joined
·
50 Posts
Discussion Starter #1
If he’s true to his word. I wonder if Ford can close the gap this model cycle with their program due next year
2217
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
365 Posts
Yes. But not January 2021.

Or alternatively... Yes, by January 2021, Tesla Autopilot will improve certain functions and regress certain other ones.
 

·
Super Moderator
Joined
·
1,205 Posts
Is 6-10 weeks Elon speak for January?
This is a rewrite of existing functions to take advantage of Tesla’s new processors—moving away from the nVidia processors. It should be faster and help in the AI’s decision making.

Although there may be some code-efficiencies in the rewrite, it don’t see it helping the owners of non-2020 vehicles with non-tesla processors too much.
 
  • Like
Reactions: JTK44

·
Registered
Joined
·
110 Posts
Fundamental architectural rewrite = What we were doing wasn't going to work ever, so we started over again so we can claim progress.
6-10 Weeks: I'm hoping you'll forget by then. If not, it'll be because "we're electing to enhance and add features."
Limited Public Release = Nobody will know who or if anyone is actually using the new release.
FSD = Full employment for code writers program. Vaporware.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
28 Posts
Tesla Battery Day is now combined with Tesla Stock holder meeting 22 September. This might be the day he releases more info or teases the world. After recent Space X successes everyone is looking for something big from Tesla too.
 

·
Super Moderator
Joined
·
1,205 Posts
Tesla Battery Day is now combined with Tesla Stock holder meeting 22 September. This might be the day he releases more info or teases the world. After recent Space X successes everyone is looking for something big from Tesla too.
Tech advances are good in the industry overall. But I won’t be buying a Tesla anytime soon, no matter the news.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
6 Posts
As a former computer programming engineer, I would NEVER trus a computer program to anticipate the almost infinite range of situations that one can encounter on our country's roads and highways. Cruise control along Interstates would e as far as I would trust anybody's software to
do as good a job as I could. We have seen the ridiculos erors that Tesla software has made, over and over agian : running into huge fire trucks parked in the highway, brick walls. highway concrete dividers, etc. The landscape encompassing places and situations that a car can encounter cannot ever be enumerated by the software engineer, much less the appropriate response/. Autonomous driving is a pipe dream.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
236 Posts
We have seen the ridiculos erors that Tesla software has made, over and over agian : running into huge fire trucks parked in the highway, brick walls. highway concrete dividers, etc. The landscape encompassing places and situations that a car can encounter cannot ever be enumerated by the software engineer, much less the appropriate response/. Autonomous driving is a pipe dream.
Despite what Elon claims, I don't think Tesla itself has ever said that its fool proof in all situations. All the warnings on the screen and so forth say you are the one in control, not the car. For the crashes you cite I still blame the stupid drivers, not the car.
 

·
Premium Member
Joined
·
106 Posts
If he’s true to his word. I wonder if Ford can close the gap this model cycle with their program due next year View attachment 2217
"Almost at zero interventions on my drive..."

Think about that statement for a bit. For any sort of autonomous system to work, you would have to have zero interventions for maybe a hundred million miles. Consistently.

If Elon is admitting that the present system is so bad that it requires interventions on short drives, it isn't anywhere close to handling all of the edge cases required for full autonomy. It is easy to get to 90 or even 95%. It is a thousand (ten miillon?) times harder to get from 95 to 99.9%. Because that is where the oddness exists, and human brains can handle that oddness.

Don't get me wrong. I want autonomous, and I also thought it would happen sooner, but every few thousand miles when I'm driving, something very odd happens. I handle it, shrug, and go on. But I don't know how a computer would do. And an accident every few thousand miles is not the standard. Not even close.

Humans have a fatal accident approximately once every 86,000,000 miles driven. You read that correctly: as bad as we are, distracted, using cell phones when we shouldn't, fatigued, drunk, etc., we only kill a human once every 86 million miles.

We will have autonomy and it will be great. But it is a very hard problem.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
236 Posts
"Almost at zero interventions on my drive..."

Think about that statement for a bit. For any sort of autonomous system to work, you would have to have zero interventions for maybe a hundred million miles. Consistently.

If Elon is admitting that the present system is so bad that it requires interventions on short drives, it isn't anywhere close to handling all of the edge cases required for full autonomy. It is easy to get to 90 or even 95%. It is a thousand (ten miillon?) times harder to get from 95 to 99.9%. Because that is where the oddness exists, and human brains can handle that oddness.

Don't get me wrong. I want autonomous, and I also thought it would happen sooner, but every few thousand miles when I'm driving, something very odd happens. I handle it, shrug, and go on. But I don't know how a computer would do. And an accident every few thousand miles is not the standard. Not even close.

Humans have a fatal accident approximately once every 86,000,000 miles driven. You read that correctly: as bad as we are, distracted, using cell phones when we shouldn't, fatigued, drunk, etc., we only kill a human once every 86 million miles.

We will have autonomy and it will be great. But it is a very hard problem.
I agree with most everything you said. But I don't know if they have to be 99.9% accurate. There are self-driving semi's between Tucson and Phoenix. They don't need to handle the snow situation, or someone jumping out in front of the car (on the freeway at speed in a semi, your screwed no matter who is driving).

Likewise as one of the few people who has ridden in a Waymo I can tell you its amazing site to see. It doesn't need to handle the freeway situations, it also doesn't need to handle snow, etc.

My point is, they can work in specific limited circumstances and can do a lot of good. So for a Level 5 car, your right on. Level 4, I'm not so sure you are.
 
1 - 13 of 13 Posts
Top