OK, based on v7 Guesstimates (Production runs & line output guesstimates) here are my guesstimates on delivery and reservation/order numbers reached.

I'm going with the optimistic 2-3 weeks for delivery that has come from multiple dealers. This is one of the few things I trust them on. They've ordered lots of cars. Yes, most have come from Michigan but Ford's been building cars in Mexico for a while now and that shouldn't add a whole lot more time.

I'll be realistic and assume Ford sticks with the 23 November OKTB date. What will be stacked up in the lot on 23 November?
2,300 FCTP cars, mostly the 1800 Premiums (I'm assuming those FEs will get special delivery!).
3,000 First Editions
1,000 + Premiums with maybe a few CA Route 1s and Selects thrown in for line spacing.
Over 6,000 cars.

Let's go with one member's estimate of 500 cars per day loading time. That means it will take 12 days to get those all out, possibly 16 to 18 to be completely caught up as production will continue during that time. I'll assume train loading is a 7-day per week operation.

All FCTPs are moving on trains by 27 November
All FEs are moving on trains by 3 December
FCTPs arrive at dealers from 11-18 December
FEs arrive at dealers from 17-24 December
Premiums and scattered others arrive at dealers starting 18 December.

By the end of the year, I'm guessing North American dealers will have taken delivery of
2,300 FCTP cars, mostly the 1800 Premiums (I'm assuming those FEs will get special delivery!).
3,000 First Editions
5,200 + Premiums and other trims.
Over 10,000 cars.

Reading back over earlier posts and information on EU/UK orders, I don't think they started up as fast as NA orders. Rather than assuming the 60/40 split of planned sales (EU/UK vs NA), let's go with a 50/50 split of early reservations. It may even go 40/60 in the first couple of weeks. We should still assume 35% of the NA orders in the early period are GTs as that's what Ford reported to the press.

Since these are rough assumptions, I'll start with rough numbers:
Of course, reservations began with 4,000.
8,000 Mach Es becomes 16,000 reservation numbers accounting for the half reserved in the EU/UK. The 8,000 are also 35% GTs that won't be made yet, so that's only 5,200 cars to be made.
So, 4,000 + 8,000 + 12,000 = 24,000

I estimate that in 2020, the total number of customer Mach Es to reach dealers may exceed reservation number 24,000 or any order based on a November reservation.

 

I got confirmation today that My MME4X has been built but is waiting for OKTB. I an still hoping for delivery before Christmas, but I think I am optimistic.

 

Congratulations!

 

European delivery is being scheduled as well. Got email from dealer indicating build 11.23.2020.
Getting excited😄

 

European delivery is being scheduled as well. Got email from dealer indicating build 11.23.2020.
Getting exited😄

Maybe if it's a First Edition. That just happens to be the OKTB date. To start production of EU/UK cars that early means they would have to interleave NA and EU/UK cars or stop NA production after only about 1,000 Premiums. I don't think there will be a large production of non-First Edition cars for EU/UK in 2020. My new guesstimates are coming right up.

 

Version 10
Hold onto that chicken handle over the window of your Mach E because we have just accelerated fast like BEVs do best!

Based on the new videos from the plant and intel provided by our best inside sources, the line seems to be running at 20 vehicles per hour.

"Hmmm 20 per hour, all that talk of different areas, the paint is way better than tesla, have the same vision system as ktp .hmmm. wonder who said will be about 26 an hour when they get rolling and said 20 per hour now?
🚘
Also
@ChasingCoral Do your math now. 2 shifts 10 hour each 5 days a week. lets just go with 20 an hour. It will be 26 by November 26th is all goes right. So u could even if "you" like do a what could be then.

Demos are getting cranked out left and right and getting close to being done with them.
There will be some production cars getting made before the 26th how many I don't know."

with a subsequent update:
"They are working 7.2 hours 5 days a week. Why I dont know yet. Just got that info for this week."

The new line calculation seems to be:
2*7*5*20 = 1,400 cars per week now
and
2*7*5*26 = 1,820 cars per week after November 26th.
I'm going to cut 10% off those to be a little conservative.

If these are correct, that means the production rates are much higher than even the optimistic estimates I used before:

That means up to 13,000 Mach Es produced by the end of December.
It also means they can reach at least 70,000 vehicles in the first run by the end of July, increasing North American deliveries from 20,000 to ~40,000. This is consistent with some of the demand numbers we've heard on here.

From today's build date assignments, combined with the Dutch build dates from @makooy and information from @portlandg and others about impending order conversions in the UK, I think we'll see a limited EU/UK production in December followed by simultaneous NA and EU/UK production starting in January.

Therefore I currently estimate with ~11,000 cars to North America in 2020 (~2,000 FCTP and ~9,000 customer cars) and 2,000 for EU/UK. Even so, that's a lot of cars!

Even I find these numbers a bit hard to believe!

 

Thanks for your persistence. I can tell you have a love for statistics.

My take on all your numbers (if anyone cares ):

In an effort to improve Quality Control and reduce warranty claims, Ford is currently taking twice as long to produce the Mach-E than they need to. I believe the third shift is avoided to leave time to clean the build-stations.

I find this a good thing, it should hopefully limit any problems to the unforeseen component issue or a newly encountered software bug. All of which I hope doesn’t happen, but I am being realistic as this is a first-year vehicle for both the hardware and the Sync 4a system.

Once any kinks are worked out with the new architecture build, and because of the reduced overall complexity of a BEV, the production rate could possibly increase again in the future without sacrificing quality.

I hope demand continues to grow for the MMe. Its success will help loosen the board-of-directors purse-strings.

I look forward to seeing how accurate your crystal ball is when the actual sales numbers start coming in!

 

OK, time for version 6.

The changes are focused mostly on two things:
The 2021 end game: how many Mach Es can be made and by when (This post)
More delivery vs reservation details (next post)

Part of this comes from the great intel from @trutolife27 and inside source. This includes the belief by Ford that there are actually far more orders coming in, perhaps 70,000 and they plan to fill them.

With the plan for no C-shift, increased production is reached by increased time. Instead of ending Run 3 on 30 July, it has to be extended to 12 Nov. 2021, assuming a solid 1,300 per week production. That reaches 70,200 cars and a six-week buffer if they have to run long before hitting the 2021 Christmas break and end of legal 2021 production (31 Dec.). To reach the mentioned 80,000 requires 7-8 more weeks or faster production.

 

OK, time for version 6.

The changes are focused mostly on two things:
The 2021 end game: how many Mach Es can be made and by when (This post)
More delivery vs reservation details (next post)

Part of this comes from the great intel from @trutolife27 and inside source. This includes the belief by Ford that there are actually far more orders coming in, perhaps 70,000 and they plan to fill them (see https://www.macheclub.com/site/thr...engineering-friends-in-mexico.1100/post-31714 and https://www.macheclub.com/site/thr...engineering-friends-in-mexico.1100/post-31808)

With the plan for no C-shift, increased production is reached by increased time. Instead of ending Run 3 on 30 July, it has to be extended to 12 Nov. 2021, assuming a solid 1,300 per week production. That reaches 70,200 cars and a six-week buffer if they have to run long before hitting the 2021 Christmas break and end of legal 2021 production (31 Dec.). To reach the mentioned 80,000 requires 7-8 more weeks or faster production.

View attachment 2387

View attachment 2388

Really nice work. Thanks!

 

Now let's model out some delivery vs reservation details for North American Cars.

Ford now is saying dealers will have FCTP cars in stores in late November. The official FCTP order information stated shipping late November. We've also had multiple sources confirm a 23 November OKTB schedule. This gives us three options:

1. Ford moves up OKTB to late October/Early November
2. Ford ships FCTP vehicles before OKTB on 23 Nov.
3. Ford ships FCTP at OKTB date and FCTP vehicles arrive late December (pushing FEs to January)

Let's be optimistic and assume (1) or (2), with FCTP shipped in early November for cars in stores for Thanksgiving weekend. Let's also assume First Editions go as soon as they are ready, arriving early December, with Premiums following right after. Let's also assume cars are shipped pretty quickly after production (as fast as they can fill train cars to distribution locations) with a four week delivery.

FCTP: By the end of November, all FCTP are delivered.
FE: By 11 December all FEs are delivered.
Others: That gives 2-1/2 weeks worth of Premiums, perhaps 3,200 cars, that may be delivered before the end of 2020. The rest of the MP2 run for North America is another 800 premiums and the Selects and CA Route 1s. Additional NA cars wait until Run 2 in January as the rest of Run 1 goes to EU/UK.

My most optimistic prediction has 2020 deliveries of:
All FCTP
ALL FE
3,200 Premiums.

We can assume 35% GTs, 15% FEs, so reservation holders up to 10,400 to perhaps 20,000 get cars in 2020 depending mostly on the ratio of NA to EU/UK cars in that first week of reservations. That means reservations made between the reveal on 11/17 and 11/19 will likely get their cars in 2020, maybe even those who reserved up until about 11/25.

If my guesses are right and production starts back up 11 January and production is divided 60/40 EU/NA, then by July the first 50,000 come out with NA deliveries continuing about 4 weeks after production. That should cover reservations through April or May plus all the GTs. After the GTs are produced, the last reservations and direct buyers (no reservation) arrive through the end of the year.

 

BTW, intel since I put this together indicates that we are likely to see option #1

• Ford moves up OKTB to late October/Early November

 

With some recent information, it's time for version 2 of my estimates. First off, some important changes from my initial estimates (Production runs & line output guesstimates)

1) My apologies to our friends north of the border. Having no information of separation of Canada from US in order and production systems, what I previously referred to as US we'll just call North America now.

2) Based on orders entered as of today (7-27) on one of the sites
I now see we are at
https://www.macheclub.com/site/attachments/1595902300206-png.3732/


3) For now I'll stick close to my original assumptions of NA orders at 5% FE, 50% Premium, 15% Select, 5% CA Route 1, 25% GT. It doesn't represent the percentages in the table above but we know all the FE orders have to be in this week and I strongly suspect most of the eager non-FE buyers are getting Premium. However, I think the strength of the Premiums may be a little higher than my first estimate.

4) I'm sad to say that I don't think there will be any more opportunity for First Editions as there seems to be no option for dealers ordering them for FCTP (see #4).

5) I'm also sad to say that my theory they will produce FCTP (dealer demo) units before Job #1 has been squashed. So has the theory that dealers will get production cars for FCTP in September (pre-production special events are still possible). Each EV-certified dealer, of which there are ~2000, will only get to order a maximum of one Mach E (see attached from a little birdie not in Mexico), although there may be some supplements. Clearly they are being produced after Job #1 (currently scheduled for October 26) and it looks like the First Editions may literally be the first off the line.

https://www.macheclub.com/site/attachments/fctp-jpg.3733/


So that moves the dealer units into the same production as the customer units but drops the number down. My guess on these? 400 CA Route 1, 100 Select, 1500 Premium. Why? Why not show off the best of what they have to choose from. A few will want Selects because their market supports that, CA Route 1 will be popular in the south and west and dealers may recognize they are unusual. Most will want Premiums.

6) I have no reason to adjust the European estimates:
In EU/UK let's assume 7% FE, 33% AWD, 60% RWD. I really have no idea how many dealer demo units are planned for EU/UK as I don't know how many dealers you have. However, I'm guessing it is far fewer than in NA. Let's say 1000?

7) GTs
I was corrected that there are no EU/UK GTs and reminded by @eager2own that Ford said reservations were 30%.

8) So let's go with: NA orders at 5% FE, 50% Premium, 10% Select, 5% CA Route 1, 30% GT.

So,
Total units:
20,000 NA: 1,000 FEs, 10,000 Premium, 2,000 Select, 1,000 CA Route 1, 6,000 GTs,
30,000 EU: 2,000 FW, 18,000 RWD, 10,000 AWD
Plus NA FCTP units and EU/UK demos (Is it called FCTP over there?).

9) One item I learned from my source in Cuautitlan is the stamping facility and the assembly line share workers. We also know they should start stamping in August, preparing parts for assembly. They are also starting running 2 shifts, not 3. With Job #1 scheduled for October 26, that could mean lots of parts. They probably want to test all of their gear early, so that means stamping, painting, etc. for both NA and EU/UK parts up front. That means there is a Run 0 that is producing parts before Job #1 / Run 1 of assembly.

If they pre-make lots of parts, then run the assembly line hard before the Christmas-Three Kings Day break, they could be running faster than the original estimate. They might then train more folks to add the 3rd shift later or increase simultaneous stamping and assembly. We also know the plant is capable of much more than 1,000 units/week.

We increase production in the early production period to 2,000 units/week on average, assuming pre-stamping of much of the parts before the start but having to do stamping and assembly at the same time after the first of the year, so slowing to a bit over 1,000 units/week.

Working with these numbers:
EU/UK runs focus on getting a full Roll-on Roll-off ship: ~8000

Run 1 focuses on getting out as many US cars as possible but adds one RORO load to head to EU/UK.
26 October-23 December 8 weeks 16,000 Mach Es

8,000 to US that are 1,000 FEs, 6,000 Premiums, 600 Selects, and 400 CA Route 1s.
Of those, 1500 Premiums, 100 Selects, and 400 CA Route 1s go to dealers as demos.
These start arriving late November and continue deliveries into early January.

8,000 to EU/UK that are 2,000 FEs, 4,000 RWD, and 2,000 AWD.
Of those, 400 RWD and 600 AWD going to dealers as demos.
These arrive in the middle of the first quarter of 2021.

Run 2 focuses on getting out one more RORO of EU/UK cars and the rest of the non-GTs to the US
11 January-2 April 12 weeks 14,000 Mach Es

Run 3 gets out two more ROROs of EU/UK cars and the GTs to the US
19 April-30 July 15 weeks 20,000 Mach Es

That models out to:
https://www.macheclub.com/site/attachments/1595908542488-png.3734/


I will admit that's an optimistic early assembly schedule but that was also based on my source in Cuautitlan thinking 1,000 per week seemed awfully low.

Thoughts?

p.s.: My EU/UK numbers for dealers are probably too high and should be cut in half.

 

I haven't run an update for a while, mainly because there hasn't been enough new information to do so. However, I think it's worth taking another look and releasing v.7.

We've also still multiple sources confirm both 26 October start for FEs and 23 November OKTB schedule. Of course, sources in Cuautitlan also said they are running 4 days behind schedule. If there's a break scheduled between FCTP and FE production, they might get back on schedule. They also confirmed Ford will not ship FCTP vehicles before OKTB.

This gives us two options:

1. Ford ships FCTP and FEs at OKTB date. If we assume the dealers are right about a 2-3 week delivery time, FCTP vehicles and arrive mid-December with FEs arriving right behind them (same time for some dealers). All FCTP and FEs arrive at dealers in December.
2. Ford moves up OKTB (we have no information suggesting this will happen but continue to hope 😬

Other changes:

• No FCTP cars being made for EU/UK until later. Besides, Ford-Europe is allowing test drives during their ongoing event, so let's assume no FCTP for there now.
• I tossed in 10 FEs in the FCTP as part of the executive orders. We know a Rapid Red has already been built for someone (last name might be Ford).
• We still don't know exactly how many FEs are being built. We've heard 3,000 but we don't know if that's 3,000 for NA or global.
  • Currently the NA orders are 15% FE. Assuming the initial 20,000 NA cars, that's 3,000 -- hmmm.
  • We also don't have any reason to believe the 60/40 EU/US split applies to FEs. Let's just go with 3,000 NA FEs produced now, and 1,500 for EU/UK by the end of the year.
• Demand is high. I'm going to shift my assumption of slower production of FEs and go to a 1,000 car per week rate during FE production (probably optimistic) and then the full 1,300 once they shift to Premiums, etc.
• All currently reserved CA Route 1s will be made up front along with the first batch of Premiums. They only account for 3% of orders so far, so it's best to do them all at once.
• Promises of February deliveries of some EU/UK cars still means some of those will be produced in 2020. However, if Ford shifts those delivery dates into March, it means they will be producing more NA cars in 2020. Based on the latest emails to UK buyers, I'll go out on a limb and say they are only going to make a week's worth of EU/UK cars in 2020 to test the line. Orders aren't being confirmed until the end of November, that really means scheduling parts will be planning for January's production. Production in December will be all the FEs and a limited number of the others.

So, the Line Capacity is adjusted to:

The percentages (based on order tracking through today) are:

And Production Runs are:

Don't pay close attention to numbers in 2021. I haven't made any changes in there other than the automatic ones that kick in by moving around production in 2020, and the assumption that Ford decides to finish all non-GT NA pre-orders by April.

Separate post coming next: Delivery and reservation number guesses.

 

I haven't run an update for a while, mainly because there hasn't been enough new information to do so. However, I think it's worth taking another look and releasing v.7.

We've also still multiple sources confirm both 26 October start for FEs and 23 November OKTB schedule. Of course, sources in Cuautitlan also said they are running 4 days behind schedule. If there's a break scheduled between FCTP and FE production, they might get back on schedule. They also confirmed Ford will not ship FCTP vehicles before OKTB.

This gives us two options:

1. Ford ships FCTP and FEs at OKTB date. If we assume the dealers are right about a 2-3 week delivery time, FCTP vehicles and arrive mid-December with FEs arriving right behind them (same time for some dealers). All FCTP and FEs arrive at dealers in December.
2. Ford moves up OKTB (we have no information suggesting this will happen but continue to hope 😬

Other changes:

• No FCTP cars being made for EU/UK until later. Besides, Ford-Europe is allowing test drives during their ongoing event, so let's assume no FCTP for there now.
• I tossed in 10 FEs in the FCTP as part of the executive orders. We know a Rapid Red has already been built for someone (last name might be Ford).
• We still don't know exactly how many FEs are being built. We've heard 3,000 but we don't know if that's 3,000 for NA or global.
  • Currently the NA orders are 15% FE. Assuming the initial 20,000 NA cars, that's 3,000 -- hmmm.
  • We also don't have any reason to believe the 60/40 EU/US split applies to FEs. Let's just go with 3,000 NA FEs produced now, and 1,500 for EU/UK by the end of the year.
• Demand is high. I'm going to shift my assumption of slower production of FEs and go to a 1,000 car per week rate during FE production (probably optimistic) and then the full 1,300 once they shift to Premiums, etc.
• All currently reserved CA Route 1s will be made up front along with the first batch of Premiums. They only account for 3% of orders so far, so it's best to do them all at once.
• Promises of February deliveries of some EU/UK cars still means some of those will be produced in 2020. However, if Ford shifts those delivery dates into March, it means they will be producing more NA cars in 2020. Based on the latest emails to UK buyers, I'll go out on a limb and say they are only going to make a week's worth of EU/UK cars in 2020 to test the line. Orders aren't being confirmed until the end of November, that really means scheduling parts will be planning for January's production. Production in December will be all the FEs and a limited number of the others.

So, the Line Capacity is adjusted to:
View attachment 2645


The percentages (based on order tracking through today) are:
View attachment 2646


And Production Runs are:
View attachment 2647

Don't pay close attention to numbers in 2021. I haven't made any changes in there other than the automatic ones that kick in by moving around production in 2020, and the assumption that Ford decides to finish all non-GT NA pre-orders by April.

Separate post coming next: Delivery and reservation number guesses.

 

Well, fellow anxious US Mach E buyers, we have good news and bad news for v.8.
Good news: They haven't used trains at the Cuautitlan plant in 15 years, and word has it they won't for Mach Es either. That means lots of trucks. If they are as nimble with their trucks as the ones that came out of Cuatitlan headed to the Mach E Tour and related stops, they can be at US* dealers within a week. They are also using trucks to send early units to ships bound for Europe right now**.

Bad news: Production is currently slower than I was guessing (these aren't called guesstimates for nothing!). @trutolife27 had warned early production rates starting at 100+ per week. What I hadn't realized is they have only ramped up to about 200-300/week now (per my contact).

Fortunately, things aren't as slow as I feared when I saw a parking lot with 287 cars. That wasn't the total so far, just the shipping backlog at that point -- whew! In fact theog.ho's Instagram post from last week with 287 cars in the lot? They're almost all gone now with one lone car in the lot at the end of today. All out on trucks. Employees are no longer allowed to park in the employee parking lot so the space can be used for Mach Es (someone will have to do a spatial analysis of the parking lots to see how many you think they hold).

That means those FCTP dates in November some of you heard from dealers make sense. However, they are talking about increasing that to double-triple the current rate in a couple of weeks once MP2 is underway. So, we'll estimate 600 cars per week by then. The good news is my contact expects them to reach 1000/week soon if there are no hiccups.

So I'm downgrading my model's throughput to an average of 200/week during MP1 (28 Sept-23 Oct), up to an average of 600 per week in the FCTP completion phase of MP2 (26 Oct-13 Nov.) and reaching 1000 per week once they start on customer orders on 16 Nov. Yes, I realize that it may make sense to interleave FEs in with FCTP cars to mix up the time per unit. However, I have no information on how to model that, so I'm sticking with a simpler model.

v.8 now produces 2,400 cars by 13 November. That should cover all FCTP and some FEs. 5,500 customer cars then are produced during 16 November-23 December. I've heard there's only a 1-week break at Christmas/New Years, so Run 2 has 13 weeks instead of 12.

With the reduced rates in mind, I'll bet they hold off on EU/UK cars until January, although they may run some tests through the line in December to prepare. This drops us to perhaps 5,500 customer units before the end of December. Fortunately, if shipping is reduced to a week, those will all get to dealers before the end of the year.

So, here are the new tables:

(unchanged)

(I'm not adjusting anything in late 2021 for now)

Potential reservation numbers reached in the next post.
The remaining good news is just when I go out on a limb with a new version, we learn new critical information. Fingers crossed it's good news!

*Canadian footnote: I'm assuming you'll get your cars by truck, too and it shouldn't take much longer to get there than US locations.

** European Mach Es may be trucked to the ports


I don't know that will affect timing much for you.

 

Any idea what caused the much slower production rate?

Is this worrisome or just normal procedure in the auto industry?

 

From what I can glean it is not a major issue, and they expect it to be corrected shortly (on the order of days). They have continued to assemble cars, although since we're getting down to so few weeks left in the year it seems like not many will get them in 2020. It is far better to work things out so that when we do get the cars there won't be significant issues - the difference between "we'll fix it later" and "let's get it right the first time".

 

Thank you @timbop , I need all the good news I can get!

 

Deliveries for the EU are currently scheduled for “early 2021” with some indication of a current, albeit moving, target of February 2021. Given the shipping times that would mean that some EU destined cars will need to be built during run 1.

Now given my own location and reservation number I’d be all in favor of run 1 being all North American cars but that doesn’t seem to be in the cards. I'd also have preferred that we didn't have to deal with a pandemic this year, but that wasn't the case either.

 

OK, time for version 5!

The latest news today from Ford employees, including in Cuautitlan, confirmed some new key dates and other information:

• Job 1 is now September 28
• Mass production 1 will be FCTP and company cars
• Mass production 2 will begin about a month later and will be customer units and dealer stock
• All First Editions to be built by last week of October, if possible
• Time table from the day your vin is built to arrival at dealer 3-4 weeks
• OK to buy (date customer units expected at dealers in US) is now November 23
• Assembly line rate at full production 1,300 per week and Dearborn wants them to hit it!
• Important corollary: Dearborn wants nothing shipped with anything to fix. Farley has a no excuse policy.
• Final date for conversion of First Edition reservations has slipped again to 8/14
• As far as we know, Mach E production scheduling still begins August 20
• We've heard Dutch delivery dates around the end of February

I've separated Run 1 into Job #1, FEs, and the rest of MP 2.

Job #1:
At least 2,000 cars will be produced. This includes all of the FCTP units as well as company orders. Company orders include units for final testing as well as executive orders. We know that there will be at least 2,000 units for FCTP. Let's assume 500 more. Presumably EU/UK needs dealer units, so let's still figure 500 there. Under full production of 1,300 per week that's over 2 weeks. However, we should assume slow production, so maybe 3 weeks?

First Editions:
@trutolife27's intel on the other Forum says "The goal is to (try) to have all the first edition built by last week of October." That's perhaps 3,000 cars. I realize not all reservations will be converted to FE orders but I think conversion will be high. We also don't have confirmation it's 3,000. If we expect 1,000 per week (close to full production), that's 3 weeks. There are only 5 weeks between September 28 and October 30, or 6,500 cars at full production. So maybe they can get out all of Job #1 and the FEs in 5 weeks. Maybe. I'm going to assume Job #1 + First Editions will take 6 weeks. That gets all of the North American First Editions out by the last week of October, which may be what they meant.

Mass Production 2:
Pulling the above two out, this leaves 7 weeks at full production. That's up to 9,100 units. The real question is still how many units are destined for EU/UK. A full Roll-on/Roll-off ship takes about 8,000 vehicles. That would be the almost of the remainder and gets very few Premiums or other non-FE customer units to North America. I doubt that is their plan. I'll again assume 1/2 to NA and 1/2 to EU/UK. I'll also assume full production throughput of vehicles.

Line capacity is now over the needed 50,000 if we assume full production to the end.

Percentages:
We have a few more orders, but still only about 1% of possible orders out there. I don't know if that makes for a valid sample but it's getting close. Selects are up but otherwise no real change and no reason to change assumptions.

v5 Guesstimate
This brings us to the important table:

For North America, we'll assume 4 weeks delivery time (close locations earlier), meaning that by

• November 20 dealers should have their demos
• November 27 First Editions should be delivered
• December 18 should be delivery of
  • 4,000 Premiums
  • 200 Selects and
  • 400 CA Route 1s

This is a little above the high end of the estimate from @trutolife27's contact in Cuautitlan:
"My guess is 3000 to 5,000 shipped and on the lot and sold by end of December."
So reality may be lower if production doesn't meet my assumptions.

Producing the EU/UK models other than First Editions would occur at the end, giving 10 weeks to deliver them to their destinations.

What US Reservation Numbers get cars in 2020?
Now I'll go out on a limb I haven't ventured onto before: reservation numbers. We know that there were reservation numbers up into the 80,000s just before orders opened. 50,000 are being produced and orders are still being taken. Let's assume 50% of potential reservation numbers result in orders. This includes reservation numbers not assigned and reservations not converted.

60% of cars go to EU/UK, 40% to NA. That means, for example, that if 10,000 cars are produced, 4,000 US customers get cars. That means 4,000 cars means 10,000 reservation numbers.

Assuming 30% GTs in the US, the 4,000 is actually 5,200 so that brings us to 11,200 reservation numbers. But if only 50% of potential reservation numbers result in orders, that will be doubled to 22,400. Finally, reservation numbers started at 4,000. This means that US reservations up to around 25,000 might be delivered in 2020. We'll consider the First Editions (1000), Selects (200), and CA Route 1s (400) to be noise in this calculation, considering the huge assumptions. Converting that into the more meaningful reservation timestamps, that probably means any reservation made in November has a good chance of being delivered in 2020.

Now don't shoot me if we don't reach res# 20,000! There are lots of assumptions that probably don't hold. Eager people make early reservations, so they probably convert at a higher rate. if @trutolife27's contact is right with the 3,000-5,000 estimate and slow production brings us in at the low end of that scale, 2,000 Premiums becomes 2,600, becomes 5,600, becomes 11,200, becomes about 15,000, so reservations through ~ November 19.

I'm sure I have some math errors and you can definitely find holes in my assumptions. Thoughts?

 

...Thoughts?

I have a few.

The estimate of 3000 FE is too high. The Bronco was only 2500 to start (Doubled to 5000 because of demand). They extended the MMe FE conversion window because they are trying to get enough FE orders in place to make the minimum amount, they failed to get the minimum target by July 30. I believe the final number will be no more than 1500 at best, including the company purchases.

Your estimates for order conversion also seem high, especially in the current economy. If 20% converted to date (they have until the end of the year, after all) that is a high number.

Additional thoughts:

There shouldn’t be a single Mustang Mach-E sitting on a lot (i mean dealer stock, not counting FCTP) until ALL customer orders are fulfilled.

No one who ordered the MMe after the reservations closed should get their vehicle before converted reservations.

How unfair would it be if we were left waiting for a vehicle, just to see one left unclaimed on the dealer lot. Or worse, someone who just ordered a month ago driving around in one, while you have been waiting a year? Bad customer relations, if you ask me.

 

Okay, I just got my official order number from my dealer. My order number is in the 5900’s. Even though my reservation in in the 20,000’s.

I may actually see my MMe this year. Fingers Crossed.

Also, my dealer now has 15 orders, and 10 GT reservations. He only had 5 total when I placed my order at the end of June. He says MMe interest is better than expected. He also has 95 Bronco reservations. I think Ford will have a good year in 2021.

 

The official order number is different from what was your online order number?

 

OK, based on v8 Guesstimates (https://www.macheclub.com/site/threads/production-runs-line-output-guesstimates.1033/post-46715) here are my guesstimates on delivery and reservation/order numbers reached.

I'm going with the NEW and IMPROVED optimistic 1-2 weeks for delivery that has come from watching the Mach E Tour shipments and news that Cuautitlan doesn't use trains any more.

We'll stick with the 23 November OKTB date.

What will be stacked up in the lot on 23 November?
2,300 FCTP cars, mostly the 1800 Premiums (I'm assuming those FEs will get special delivery!).
1,100 First Editions and probably nothing else. This does improve the odds for my 3 December guess on FE deliveries though!

This drops us to a total of about 2,500 Premiums with maybe a few CA Route 1s and Selects thrown in for line spacing by the end of the year. A total of 5,500 customer orders plus 2,300 FCTP (give or take a few 100).

We'll also assume the trucks will get them all to dealers by the first of the year. Of course, some may be a little late.

Since these are rough assumptions, I'll start with rough numbers:
Of course, reservations began with 4,000.
5,500 Mach Es becomes 11,000 reservation numbers accounting for half reserved in the EU/UK. The 5,500 also include 35% GTs that won't be made yet, so that's only 3,575 cars to be made.
So, 4,000 + 5,500 + 11,000 ~ 20,000

I estimate that in 2020, the total number of customer Mach Es to reach dealers may exceed reservation number 20,000 or most November reservations.

 

OK, based on v8 Guesstimates (https://www.macheclub.com/site/threads/production-runs-line-output-guesstimates.1033/post-46715) here are my guesstimates on delivery and reservation/order numbers reached.

I'm going with the NEW and IMPROVED optimistic 1-2 weeks for delivery that has come from watching the Mach E Tour shipments and news that Cuautitlan doesn't use trains any more.

We'll stick with the 23 November OKTB date.

What will be stacked up in the lot on 23 November?
2,300 FCTP cars, mostly the 1800 Premiums (I'm assuming those FEs will get special delivery!).
1,100 First Editions and probably nothing else. This does improve the odds for my 3 December guess on FE deliveries though!

This drops us to a total of about 2,500 Premiums with maybe a few CA Route 1s and Selects thrown in for line spacing by the end of the year. A total of 5,500 customer orders plus 2,300 FCTP (give or take a few 100).

We'll also assume the trucks will get them all to dealers by the first of the year. Of course, some may be a little late.

Since these are rough assumptions, I'll start with rough numbers:
Of course, reservations began with 4,000.
5,500 Mach Es becomes 11,000 reservation numbers accounting for half reserved in the EU/UK. The 5,500 also include 35% GTs that won't be made yet, so that's only 3,575 cars to be made.
So, 4,000 + 5,500 + 11,000 ~ 20,000

I estimate that in 2020, the total number of customer Mach Es to reach dealers may exceed reservation number 20,000 or most November reservations.

Makes sense, but you need to add one last assumption: Reservations cancelled or not converted.

What percentage this is? I haven’t the foggiest.

 

Finally !

 

Which model did you get? I like those rims

Mine is due at the end of April, same color as yours, I ordered the premium RWD ext range

 

New info from @trutolife27's source holds good news and bad news.
Good news: Job 1 apparently now 28 September (not confirmed independently yet)
Bad news: Assembly line is only running 4 days/week at start. Not sure if that will change as my source indicates workers share time on line and in stamping. That means only about 1,000 units per week but Run 1 now a month longer.

That updates the line capacity to:

The Cuautitlan plant will have to increase output to finish their 50,000 units by the end of July, even if Runs 2 & 3 are up to 5 days per week of line operation.

This could move up deliveries of First Editions earlier in November and increases Run 1's Premium output by 1,000 units. We can now assume EU/UK runs will be in the later part of Run 1, as we have heard delivery is end of February.

 

New info from @trutolife27's source holds good news and bad news.
Good news: Job 1 apparently now 28 September (not confirmed independently yet)
Bad news: Assembly line is only running 4 days/week at start. Not sure if that will change as my source indicates workers share time on line and in stamping. That means only about 1,000 units per week but Run 1 now a month longer.

That updates the line capacity to:
View attachment 3920

The Cuautitlan plant will have to increase output to finish their 50,000 units by the end of July, even if Runs 2 & 3 are up to 5 days per week of line operation.

This could move up deliveries of First Editions earlier in November and increases Run 1's Premium output by 1,000 units. We can now assume EU/UK runs will be in the later part of Run 1, as we have heard delivery is end of February.

View attachment 3921

Your attachments are not working....

 

Order number is: 10025151 - I'm in Southern California if that makes any difference. The configuration is A RWD Premium.
Dealer responded: "Hi Todd, (08/28/2020) it means that they will start building process on this day usually takes 2-3 weeks to build and after that another 2 weeks until we get vehicle."
So that put my vehicle to me the first week of October!

 

I'm a bit suspicious of this. On the other forum we just heard a second confirmation of some new key dates from Ford employees, including in Cuautitlan:

• Job 1 is now September 28
• Mass production 1 will be FCTP and company cars
• Mass production 2 will be about a month later and will be customer units and dealer stock
• All First Editions to be built by last week of October
• Time table from the day your vin is built to arrival at dealer 3-4 weeks
• OK to buy (date customer units expected at dealers in US) is now November 23
• Assembly line rate at full production 1,300 per week

I wouldn't count on having a car in October @Galloping, but you can always hope.I trust news from folks at the plant end more than news from dealers.

 

Just an FYI I got a call from my dealer yesterday (who knew I was interested in switching to a FE) telling me he could secure one for me. I took it. I have a very early Premium reservation and was mad at myself that I was being frugal that night and did not reserve a FE. I know of at least one other person who also got that call (on another forum). So apparently Ford is allowing some to change by request through dealers to probably fill the slots of those who cancelled.
A little nervous though as I got the email of the cancellation of my Premium but my FE is not showing up yet in my reservations. He did share the order sheet with me though.

 

Excellent news for you, not so good for Ford.

This would indicate to me at least that there may be a real problem with the pricing of the MachE. People are not converting from reservations to orders and unless there is a real lease option, not the Ford Option Plan, those orders may not be converted to actual sales.

I remember several months ago we were concerned with ADM. Now the dealers are happy to assign canceled FE orders to others rather than take the cars into their inventory.

During this same time the price of the Model Y has been reduced and their is still a delivery wait of 4 to 6 weeks.

The market place is speaking. Is Ford listening?

Just my $.02.

.

 

I’m not sure that those are dealers turning those down for inventory. I think that at least is an incorrect assumption. I think it is Ford allowing those who were interested in a FE to convert an order based on availability due to cancellations.

I do agree with your concerns about the lack of a lease. I just think it is too long a leap to say at this time that the demand for the car has plummeted due to that factor and the allowance to make a handful of FE available.

 

The First Editions were "sold out" by December.

When it came time to convert, people got "cold feet".

If the dealers felt confident in the MachE, they would have seized on the opportunity to obtain a First Edition.

They would have a "unique" MachE sitting on their showroom floor to generate buzz and bring traffic into their dealership.

Instead they assigned it to you.

As I said Great News for you and I am happy for you.

Not such good news for Ford.

Lease: My point is that unless there is a real lease option, when it comes time to convert orders to actual sales, many will just cancel. I will be one of them, and my dealer will be the proud owner of a Rapid Red First Edition!


.

 

The dealership is not in control of the inventory. The approval to release a reservation that did not get converted has to come from the regional FORD person.

 

Dear Jhalkias:

Just realized another reason you got the First Edition: Sorry that I forgot it.

Unlike a regular car where the dealer invoice, plus hold backs and other incentives gives the dealer a large potential profit, with the MachE there is no dealer invoice and selling price - they are the same.

The dealer gets a fixed amount from Ford for the sale of each MachE.

This is the new way of marketing the MachE - much like Tesla does.

So unless there is an ADM, the dealer gets the same profit regardless of who he sells it to - so better to you an active customer than a stranger!

.

 

The 20,000 is for NA --- probably 15,000 for the US less about 4,000 GT’s.
Only about 11,000 Mach-E’s are available for the US.

A lot of reservation holders have never even seen the car and may be waiting for the demos before making the convert.
They should be at the dealers by the end of October.

Ford has given the Premium reservation holders until Dec 31 to convert, but the later you make the decision,
the greater chance of being bypassed to scheduled production at a later date.
Ford is not going to halt the assembly line and wait for your decision.

I doubt Ford will have any problem selling out this first year's run with or without a lease program.
As noted before --- Ford Credit made $3 Billion in 2019.
They seem to know what they are doing.

 

The 20,000 is for NA --- probably 15,000 for the US less about 4,000 GT’s.
Only about 11,000 Mach-E’s are available for the US.

A lot of reservation holders have never even seen the car and may be waiting for the demos before making the convert.
They should be at the dealers by the end of October.

Ford has given the Premium reservation holders until Dec 31 to convert, but the later you make the decision,
the greater chance of being bypassed to scheduled production at a later date.
Ford is not going to halt the assembly line and wait for your decision.

I doubt Ford will have any problem selling out this first year's run with or without a lease program.

Two things to add here:

If you want your Mach E before Spring 2021, convert now and then make your final decision when it comes. If you wait to ride in one in November or December, you probably won't get yours until Spring 2021 at the soonest.

Many dealers would rather have you order now, see it, and then sell it to you or someone else. It's their only way to get a non FCTP unit on their showroom floor before 2021. I think this is why many dealers are converting reservations without asking customers. That locks the cars into their stock.

 

The number that matters is the time stamp on your reservation, if you made one. That will determine when your car gets built within any particular production run. The dealer codes are meaningless as far as production is concerned. If you didn’t make a reservation, but instead waited for orders to open, then your order date is determinative.

Reservations started at number 4000, but on reveal day numbers in the 4, 5, 6, and 7 thousand were issued more or less simultaneously. Efore orders opened reservation numbers reached over 80,000. The reservation numbers are not necessarily consecutive though. There are gaps.

 

The number that matters is the time stamp on your reservation, if you made one. That will determine when your car gets built within any particular production run. The dealer codes are meaningless as far as production is concerned. If you didn’t make a reservation, but instead waited for orders to open, then your order date is determinative.

Reaervatiins started at number 4000, but on reveal day numbers in the 4, 5, 6, and 7 thousands were issued more or less simultaneously. Efore orders opened reservation numbers reached over 80,000. The reservation numbers are not necessarily consecutive though. There are gaps.

Yes, those are our collective assumptions. You also have to add in model types and options configuration.

I reserved Dec 7, order 10026xxx. Inwas just wondering how the ‘order code’ and ‘priority code’ plays into it all.

 

My build week was originally 1/17, moved to 1/10 (no notification, just saw this in the system). In now says my car is being built and a window sticker is available.

It almost feels real.

 

Congrats

 

Disregard I'm a product of the NYC school system and I'm ADD