I'm starting this as a new thread as it contains a whole series of guesstimates you can use to see when your Mach E MIGHT be produced.
Let's assume they will keep the Cuautitlan plant going with continuous production from Mach E job #1 through the GTs. I'll also assume the 4000 dealer demos and specials are run at a slower rate before the start of job #1, that makes 46,000 units. From 26 October through the end of the year is 8 weeks. Three weeks off for Christmas through Three Kings Day means a restart 11 January. The next run is 12 weeks until Good Friday, 2 April. Another 2 week break and a restart 19 April gives us 15 weeks through the end of July. 35 weeks. That allows for US delivery of GTs in late summer. There may also need to be some downtime to reset the line before the start of the GTs.
That gives us an estimated average line production rate of 1300 cars per week, 260 per day. So realistically we are probably looking at between 1000-1500 cars per week or 200-300 per day.
Further assumptions (and lots of guesses):
~3,000 First Editions (Best estimates range from a low of 3,000 total to no more than 10% of the total. Final number depends on if non-converted FE reservations are opened up or if the only build the numbers left of those who initially reserved.
~30% GTs (based on https://media.ford.com/content/ford...ang-mach-e-first-edition-reservation-facts.html?cks=&emailid=Article Alert Ford)
In the US, let's assume 5% FE, 25% GT, 50% Premium, 15% Select, 5% CA Route 1
(based on one reservation and one order database)
In Europe let's assume 20% AWD, 60% RWD (based on reservation database and a guess of 20% GTs)
Total units:
20,000 US: 1,000 FEs, 5,000 GTs, 10,000 Premium, 3,000 Select, 1,000 CA Route 1
30,000 EU: 18,000 RWD, 6,000 AWD, 6,000 GTs
Working with these numbers:
Run 1 focuses on getting out as many US cars as possible
26 October-23 December 8 weeks 8,000-12,000 Mach Es
This will be 1,000 FEs, 5,000- Premiums, 1000-1,500 Selects, 500 CA Route 1
Run 2 focuses on getting out as many EU cars as possible
11 January-2 April 12 weeks 12,000-18,000 Mach Es
Run 3 gets out the rest of the Mach Es, including all GTs
19 April-30 July 15 weeks 15,000-22,500 Mach Es
That models out to:
View attachment 1791
You can compare your reservation numbers against these to get an idea of the run in which your Mach E MIGHT be produced. The latest reservation number is over 80,000.
Fire away with corrections to my math or your theories.
Let's assume they will keep the Cuautitlan plant going with continuous production from Mach E job #1 through the GTs. I'll also assume the 4000 dealer demos and specials are run at a slower rate before the start of job #1, that makes 46,000 units. From 26 October through the end of the year is 8 weeks. Three weeks off for Christmas through Three Kings Day means a restart 11 January. The next run is 12 weeks until Good Friday, 2 April. Another 2 week break and a restart 19 April gives us 15 weeks through the end of July. 35 weeks. That allows for US delivery of GTs in late summer. There may also need to be some downtime to reset the line before the start of the GTs.
That gives us an estimated average line production rate of 1300 cars per week, 260 per day. So realistically we are probably looking at between 1000-1500 cars per week or 200-300 per day.
Further assumptions (and lots of guesses):
~3,000 First Editions (Best estimates range from a low of 3,000 total to no more than 10% of the total. Final number depends on if non-converted FE reservations are opened up or if the only build the numbers left of those who initially reserved.
~30% GTs (based on https://media.ford.com/content/ford...ang-mach-e-first-edition-reservation-facts.html?cks=&emailid=Article Alert Ford)
In the US, let's assume 5% FE, 25% GT, 50% Premium, 15% Select, 5% CA Route 1
(based on one reservation and one order database)
In Europe let's assume 20% AWD, 60% RWD (based on reservation database and a guess of 20% GTs)
Total units:
20,000 US: 1,000 FEs, 5,000 GTs, 10,000 Premium, 3,000 Select, 1,000 CA Route 1
30,000 EU: 18,000 RWD, 6,000 AWD, 6,000 GTs
Working with these numbers:
Run 1 focuses on getting out as many US cars as possible
26 October-23 December 8 weeks 8,000-12,000 Mach Es
This will be 1,000 FEs, 5,000- Premiums, 1000-1,500 Selects, 500 CA Route 1
Run 2 focuses on getting out as many EU cars as possible
11 January-2 April 12 weeks 12,000-18,000 Mach Es
Run 3 gets out the rest of the Mach Es, including all GTs
19 April-30 July 15 weeks 15,000-22,500 Mach Es
That models out to:
View attachment 1791
You can compare your reservation numbers against these to get an idea of the run in which your Mach E MIGHT be produced. The latest reservation number is over 80,000.
Fire away with corrections to my math or your theories.
