[ChasingCoral]

Invalid link. Number wise, that seems like a better guess than many found elsewhere.

Very strange. It showed up on my computer. Let's try the table again:

 

[ChasingCoral]

I do wish that Ford had set up two distinct reservation lists showing North America and Europe. I'm in the 5 digit category but I have little idea on what that will mean for production and delivery. It was my understanding that certain models would be built first so I don't understand why GTs would be part of the first run

They wouldn't be. GTs are all in the third run.

 

[ChasingCoral]

Nice job!!! But have you taking care of the 3000 units that goes to Canada? Here we doesn't have reservation number and our order number doesn't look like yours

To be honest, I don't have enough information on where the Canada units fit or what to do with them in the model. We don't know if the 20,000 US and 30,000 EU includes Canada in the US numbers or where they are included. Do you have a one or more cutoff dates for conversion to orders in Canada?

 

[ChasingCoral]

Here we get reservation through dealer that get their allocation from ev sale performance from last year. Example, the dealer I choose get 65 allocations but he still have some left. On ford.ca now we can see , order now and get it 2021 but for all of us that reserved one we supposed to get it before end of 2020. I converted mine june 25 and I have the confirmation that my order is on ford order system. From day 1 , website say that FE, premium and select were available late 2020 when on US ford website, only FE and premium were late 2020. They're something weird about the 3000 canadian allocation and from this 3000, 2000 goes to quebec .

So, not being sure about this I'd say consider the Canada orders to be part of the US orders, making those North American estimates.

Its my understanding that EU is shipping towards end of year, but won’t hit EU dealerships until early 2021. Did i read something wrong?

I recalled hearing that EU deliveries were now being promised for Spring 2021.

Also, Ford is now promising starting deliveries of all non-GT models in the US in late 2020.

It's quite possible that my assumption of the separation of production run 1 and run 2 into US and EU is incorrect. If run 1 includes both US and EU then the number of deliveries to the US in run 1 go down. However, to start including EU cars means ordering has to open up for non-Dutch EU cars.

Per Friday's FDNB (Fleet Distribution News Bulletin), here's the production timetable for the 2021 Mustang Mach-E.

• 06/22/2020 - 2021MY Order Bank Open Date
• 08/20/2020 - 2021MY Scheduling Begins
• 10/26/2020 - 2021MY Job #1 Date

So, the first run, from Job #1 to 12/23-ish has to be scheduled by 8/20, thus the 7/31 order cutoff.

Did I miss an announcement that non-Dutch EU orders have opened?

 

[ChasingCoral]

I recalled hearing that EU deliveries were now being promised for Spring 2021.

Let me correct my language now that it is approaching discussions of meteorological vs astronomical spring. I just went back and looked at Ford Mustang Mach-E Production And Deliveries Are Delayed

Dutch and UK buyers were told 1st quarter of 2021.

Maybe they are going to have EU orders due before August 20th?

 

[ChasingCoral]

With some recent information, it's time for version 2 of my estimates. First off, some important changes from my initial estimates (Production runs & line output guesstimates)

1) My apologies to our friends north of the border. Having no information of separation of Canada from US in order and production systems, what I previously referred to as US we'll just call North America now.

2) Based on orders entered as of today (7-27) on one of the sites
I now see we are at
https://www.macheclub.com/site/attachments/1595902300206-png.3732/


3) For now I'll stick close to my original assumptions of NA orders at 5% FE, 50% Premium, 15% Select, 5% CA Route 1, 25% GT. It doesn't represent the percentages in the table above but we know all the FE orders have to be in this week and I strongly suspect most of the eager non-FE buyers are getting Premium. However, I think the strength of the Premiums may be a little higher than my first estimate.

4) I'm sad to say that I don't think there will be any more opportunity for First Editions as there seems to be no option for dealers ordering them for FCTP (see #4).

5) I'm also sad to say that my theory they will produce FCTP (dealer demo) units before Job #1 has been squashed. So has the theory that dealers will get production cars for FCTP in September (pre-production special events are still possible). Each EV-certified dealer, of which there are ~2000, will only get to order a maximum of one Mach E (see attached from a little birdie not in Mexico), although there may be some supplements. Clearly they are being produced after Job #1 (currently scheduled for October 26) and it looks like the First Editions may literally be the first off the line.

https://www.macheclub.com/site/attachments/fctp-jpg.3733/


So that moves the dealer units into the same production as the customer units but drops the number down. My guess on these? 400 CA Route 1, 100 Select, 1500 Premium. Why? Why not show off the best of what they have to choose from. A few will want Selects because their market supports that, CA Route 1 will be popular in the south and west and dealers may recognize they are unusual. Most will want Premiums.

6) I have no reason to adjust the European estimates:
In EU/UK let's assume 7% FE, 33% AWD, 60% RWD. I really have no idea how many dealer demo units are planned for EU/UK as I don't know how many dealers you have. However, I'm guessing it is far fewer than in NA. Let's say 1000?

7) GTs
I was corrected that there are no EU/UK GTs and reminded by @eager2own that Ford said reservations were 30%.

8) So let's go with: NA orders at 5% FE, 50% Premium, 10% Select, 5% CA Route 1, 30% GT.

So,
Total units:
20,000 NA: 1,000 FEs, 10,000 Premium, 2,000 Select, 1,000 CA Route 1, 6,000 GTs,
30,000 EU: 2,000 FW, 18,000 RWD, 10,000 AWD
Plus NA FCTP units and EU/UK demos (Is it called FCTP over there?).

9) One item I learned from my source in Cuautitlan is the stamping facility and the assembly line share workers. We also know they should start stamping in August, preparing parts for assembly. They are also starting running 2 shifts, not 3. With Job #1 scheduled for October 26, that could mean lots of parts. They probably want to test all of their gear early, so that means stamping, painting, etc. for both NA and EU/UK parts up front. That means there is a Run 0 that is producing parts before Job #1 / Run 1 of assembly.

If they pre-make lots of parts, then run the assembly line hard before the Christmas-Three Kings Day break, they could be running faster than the original estimate. They might then train more folks to add the 3rd shift later or increase simultaneous stamping and assembly. We also know the plant is capable of much more than 1,000 units/week.

We increase production in the early production period to 2,000 units/week on average, assuming pre-stamping of much of the parts before the start but having to do stamping and assembly at the same time after the first of the year, so slowing to a bit over 1,000 units/week.

Working with these numbers:
EU/UK runs focus on getting a full Roll-on Roll-off ship: ~8000

Run 1 focuses on getting out as many US cars as possible but adds one RORO load to head to EU/UK.
26 October-23 December 8 weeks 16,000 Mach Es

8,000 to US that are 1,000 FEs, 6,000 Premiums, 600 Selects, and 400 CA Route 1s.
Of those, 1500 Premiums, 100 Selects, and 400 CA Route 1s go to dealers as demos.
These start arriving late November and continue deliveries into early January.

8,000 to EU/UK that are 2,000 FEs, 4,000 RWD, and 2,000 AWD.
Of those, 400 RWD and 600 AWD going to dealers as demos.
These arrive in the middle of the first quarter of 2021.

Run 2 focuses on getting out one more RORO of EU/UK cars and the rest of the non-GTs to the US
11 January-2 April 12 weeks 14,000 Mach Es

Run 3 gets out two more ROROs of EU/UK cars and the GTs to the US
19 April-30 July 15 weeks 20,000 Mach Es

That models out to:
https://www.macheclub.com/site/attachments/1595908542488-png.3734/


I will admit that's an optimistic early assembly schedule but that was also based on my source in Cuautitlan thinking 1,000 per week seemed awfully low.

Thoughts?

p.s.: My EU/UK numbers for dealers are probably too high and should be cut in half.

 

[ChasingCoral]

New info from @trutolife27's source holds good news and bad news.
Good news: Job 1 apparently now 28 September (not confirmed independently yet)
Bad news: Assembly line is only running 4 days/week at start. Not sure if that will change as my source indicates workers share time on line and in stamping. That means only about 1,000 units per week but Run 1 now a month longer.

That updates the line capacity to:

The Cuautitlan plant will have to increase output to finish their 50,000 units by the end of July, even if Runs 2 & 3 are up to 5 days per week of line operation.

This could move up deliveries of First Editions earlier in November and increases Run 1's Premium output by 1,000 units. We can now assume EU/UK runs will be in the later part of Run 1, as we have heard delivery is end of February.

 

[ChasingCoral]

Your attachments are not working....

Thanks. They should be fixed now.

 

[ChasingCoral]

Order number is: 10025151 - I'm in Southern California if that makes any difference. The configuration is A RWD Premium.
Dealer responded: "Hi Todd, (08/28/2020) it means that they will start building process on this day usually takes 2-3 weeks to build and after that another 2 weeks until we get vehicle."
So that put my vehicle to me the first week of October!

I'm a bit suspicious of this. On the other forum we just heard a second confirmation of some new key dates from Ford employees, including in Cuautitlan:

• Job 1 is now September 28
• Mass production 1 will be FCTP and company cars
• Mass production 2 will be about a month later and will be customer units and dealer stock
• All First Editions to be built by last week of October
• Time table from the day your vin is built to arrival at dealer 3-4 weeks
• OK to buy (date customer units expected at dealers in US) is now November 23
• Assembly line rate at full production 1,300 per week

I wouldn't count on having a car in October @Galloping, but you can always hope.I trust news from folks at the plant end more than news from dealers.

 

[ChasingCoral]

OK, time for version 5!

The latest news today from Ford employees, including in Cuautitlan, confirmed some new key dates and other information:

• Job 1 is now September 28
• Mass production 1 will be FCTP and company cars
• Mass production 2 will begin about a month later and will be customer units and dealer stock
• All First Editions to be built by last week of October, if possible
• Time table from the day your vin is built to arrival at dealer 3-4 weeks
• OK to buy (date customer units expected at dealers in US) is now November 23
• Assembly line rate at full production 1,300 per week and Dearborn wants them to hit it!
• Important corollary: Dearborn wants nothing shipped with anything to fix. Farley has a no excuse policy.
• Final date for conversion of First Edition reservations has slipped again to 8/14
• As far as we know, Mach E production scheduling still begins August 20
• We've heard Dutch delivery dates around the end of February

I've separated Run 1 into Job #1, FEs, and the rest of MP 2.

Job #1:
At least 2,000 cars will be produced. This includes all of the FCTP units as well as company orders. Company orders include units for final testing as well as executive orders. We know that there will be at least 2,000 units for FCTP. Let's assume 500 more. Presumably EU/UK needs dealer units, so let's still figure 500 there. Under full production of 1,300 per week that's over 2 weeks. However, we should assume slow production, so maybe 3 weeks?

First Editions:
@trutolife27's intel on the other Forum says "The goal is to (try) to have all the first edition built by last week of October." That's perhaps 3,000 cars. I realize not all reservations will be converted to FE orders but I think conversion will be high. We also don't have confirmation it's 3,000. If we expect 1,000 per week (close to full production), that's 3 weeks. There are only 5 weeks between September 28 and October 30, or 6,500 cars at full production. So maybe they can get out all of Job #1 and the FEs in 5 weeks. Maybe. I'm going to assume Job #1 + First Editions will take 6 weeks. That gets all of the North American First Editions out by the last week of October, which may be what they meant.

Mass Production 2:
Pulling the above two out, this leaves 7 weeks at full production. That's up to 9,100 units. The real question is still how many units are destined for EU/UK. A full Roll-on/Roll-off ship takes about 8,000 vehicles. That would be the almost of the remainder and gets very few Premiums or other non-FE customer units to North America. I doubt that is their plan. I'll again assume 1/2 to NA and 1/2 to EU/UK. I'll also assume full production throughput of vehicles.

Line capacity is now over the needed 50,000 if we assume full production to the end.

Percentages:
We have a few more orders, but still only about 1% of possible orders out there. I don't know if that makes for a valid sample but it's getting close. Selects are up but otherwise no real change and no reason to change assumptions.

v5 Guesstimate
This brings us to the important table:

For North America, we'll assume 4 weeks delivery time (close locations earlier), meaning that by

• November 20 dealers should have their demos
• November 27 First Editions should be delivered
• December 18 should be delivery of
  • 4,000 Premiums
  • 200 Selects and
  • 400 CA Route 1s

This is a little above the high end of the estimate from @trutolife27's contact in Cuautitlan:
"My guess is 3000 to 5,000 shipped and on the lot and sold by end of December."
So reality may be lower if production doesn't meet my assumptions.

Producing the EU/UK models other than First Editions would occur at the end, giving 10 weeks to deliver them to their destinations.

What US Reservation Numbers get cars in 2020?
Now I'll go out on a limb I haven't ventured onto before: reservation numbers. We know that there were reservation numbers up into the 80,000s just before orders opened. 50,000 are being produced and orders are still being taken. Let's assume 50% of potential reservation numbers result in orders. This includes reservation numbers not assigned and reservations not converted.

60% of cars go to EU/UK, 40% to NA. That means, for example, that if 10,000 cars are produced, 4,000 US customers get cars. That means 4,000 cars means 10,000 reservation numbers.

Assuming 30% GTs in the US, the 4,000 is actually 5,200 so that brings us to 11,200 reservation numbers. But if only 50% of potential reservation numbers result in orders, that will be doubled to 22,400. Finally, reservation numbers started at 4,000. This means that US reservations up to around 25,000 might be delivered in 2020. We'll consider the First Editions (1000), Selects (200), and CA Route 1s (400) to be noise in this calculation, considering the huge assumptions. Converting that into the more meaningful reservation timestamps, that probably means any reservation made in November has a good chance of being delivered in 2020.

Now don't shoot me if we don't reach res# 20,000! There are lots of assumptions that probably don't hold. Eager people make early reservations, so they probably convert at a higher rate. if @trutolife27's contact is right with the 3,000-5,000 estimate and slow production brings us in at the low end of that scale, 2,000 Premiums becomes 2,600, becomes 5,600, becomes 11,200, becomes about 15,000, so reservations through ~ November 19.

I'm sure I have some math errors and you can definitely find holes in my assumptions. Thoughts?

 

[ChasingCoral]

Order number is: 10025151 - I'm in Southern California if that makes any difference. The configuration is A RWD Premium.
Dealer responded: "Hi Todd, (08/28/2020) it means that they will start building process on this day usually takes 2-3 weeks to build and after that another 2 weeks until we get vehicle."
So that put my vehicle to me the first week of October!

I'd give it an outside chance you'll see your Mach E before the end of the year. You'll most likely see it in January. See my post above:

Production runs & line output guesstimates

I'm starting this as a new thread as it contains a whole series of guesstimates you can use to see when your Mach E MIGHT be produced. Let's assume they will keep the Cuautitlan plant going with continuous production from Mach E job #1 through the GTs. I'll also assume the 4000 dealer demos and...

www.macheclub.com

 

[ChasingCoral]

The Table shows 250 FCTP First Editions --- that was not a choice for dealers to order.

I have no info on the wholesale price break the dealers are given on these demo cars,
but 2,500 units seems high for the US market.

The Table also shows only 1,000 FE for the US market --- I would guess closer to 1,500.

Agreed. I'm guessing there will be a number of "special" executive orders of First Editions. 250 is probably too high, though.

 

[ChasingCoral]

I have a few.

The estimate of 3000 FE is too high. The Bronco was only 2500 to start (Doubled to 5000 because of demand). They extended the MMe FE conversion window because they are trying to get enough FE orders in place to make the minimum amount, they failed to get the minimum target by July 30. I believe the final number will be no more than 1500 at best, including the company purchases.

I hope you're right. I'd like my FE to be even more "special". I've seen the number 3,000 used by multiple inside sources as the maximum. However, Ford has never released this number. It's still an educated guess but probably a maximum rather than an actual number.

Do you know they failed to reach minimum by 31 July? I haven't seen that anywhere. I do know they have extended the window twice it and it now closes on 14 August.

Your estimates for order conversion also seem high, especially in the current economy. If 20% converted to date (they have until the end of the year, after all) that is a high number.

Maybe. There are also lots of market analysts showing that consumers whose jobs are not threatened are planning new car purchase/lease for renewed commuting -- especially in markets formerly served by high mass transit use. Folks don't want to get on crowded buses and trains.

Additional thoughts:

There shouldn’t be a single Mustang Mach-E sitting on a lot (i mean dealer stock, not counting FCTP) until ALL customer orders are fulfilled.

As @abr said, there are lots of "surprise" conversions going on. Other folks have converted but won't be sure if they are buying until the test drive and FCTP delivery may be very close to customer unit delivery. I agree there shouldn't be any "dealer stock" on lots until after conversions are fulfilled, unless

• Someone backs out of a sale -- that car remains dealer stock
• The dealer reserved and ordered the unit through the same process we did

No one who ordered the MMe after the reservations closed should get their vehicle before converted reservations.

How unfair would it be if we were left waiting for a vehicle, just to see one left unclaimed on the dealer lot. Or worse, someone who just ordered a month ago driving around in one, while you have been waiting a year? Bad customer relations, if you ask me.

If you note, direct orders are coming in with numbers over 100,000 whereas reservations topped in the 80,000s just before the order system opened. Ford has repeatedly said orders will be filled in reservation timestamp order. Presumably that is now reservation/direct order timestamp order.

 

[ChasingCoral]

It will be interesting to see how many of the US EV Certified dealers placed an order for the FCTP / demo car last month.

Does the dealer qualify for and able to collect the $7,500 Fed Tax Credit on these demo vehicles?
I don’t think they can sell them after the minimum 4 months in service and have the buyer now qualify for the credit.

Another problem for the dealer is that by the time they get the demo, almost all of the initial year production for the US will already be ordered.
And even if there are a few thousand still available to order, delivery on these new orders, will not be until after the GT and Europe production making delivery late 2021 --- a long wait.

Dealer demo cars are considered new when they are sold to the customer, so they would be eligible for the tax credit.

 

[ChasingCoral]

I was not aware that the Tax Credit is still available to the buyer even after being in service for months with the dealer.

If buying one, I definitely would want to see the MSO --- Manufacturer’s Statement of Origin to make sure it has never been Titled as that would kill the Credit.

Yes, you definitely want to see the MSO to confirm it has not been titled. Here's a bit on the differences from Edmunds: Can Buying a Demo Car Save You Money? on Edmunds.com

 

[ChasingCoral]

They extended the MMe FE conversion window because they are trying to get enough FE orders in place to make the minimum amount, they failed to get the minimum target by July 30. I believe the final number will be no more than 1500 at best, including the company purchases.

I'm seeing some evidence you are right on Ford working up to a mimimum.
When you say 1500 at best, I guess you mean ~ 1000 EU/UK and 500 North American??

There's a very simple solution for that. Allow people to convert to FE's. I'd suggest we limit the late conversion to FE orders to those in the 35994 res number through the 35,999 rez numbers. And yes, I'm kidding. @Chasing Coral is correct, the FE's should be a more limited edition car.

So, I don't know how they managed it but I'be now heard from two folks who have managed to convert their Premium reservations into First Edition orders. One had a first night reservation but the other had a reservation from much later.

 

[ChasingCoral]

Let's do a small name change:

Instead of First Edition make it a Shelby GT 350 or GT500.

A customer put in an order than canceled it.

What would the dealer do?

Call you or put it into his stock to put on his showroom floor? I think we know the answer!

My point is that reality is starting to set in: the MachE, even with the Federal Tax Credit and possible State credits and/or waiving of sales tax is an expensive car - priced like a luxury car and Ford knows more than 50% of luxury cars are leased.

I think Ford was banking on limited numbers, 20,000 in the United States so that there would be no trouble in selling all of them.

What I think Ford failed to calculate was the Model Y that is both cheaper to buy and/or lease. For most Ford buyers of small to mid size SUV, the MachE is very expensive.

For example, I am on my second Ford Edge Sport (now the ST version) with full adaptive cruise control. The MSRP on both were $48,000. Both leased out, with NY State tax and acquisition fee and ZERO down payment for under $450 a month, 36 months 10,500 miles per year.

For all except we on this Forum, the Edge, and all other ICE SUV's are the competition for the MachE.

IMO, without a competitive lease programs many of the orders for the MachE will not be converted into sales. Considering that the demand for the Model Y continues, for the MachE not to sell would be a marketing disaster for Ford. Unless Ford marketing has their "head in the sand", I expect a competitive lease program for the MachE, including the First Edition.

Just my thinking and $.02.

However, remember that we have multiple dealers converting reservations to orders without the customers' permission. I think they are doing this to control the inventory. If the customer cancels a reservation with Ford, Ford can sell that car (1/50,000) to another customer at whatever dealer the customer chooses. However, if the customer cancels a car that has been slated to the dealer or even delivered to a dealer, that dealer now has it in stock.

I suspect dealers who are on the ball, and especially those who have seen strong local demand, have figured out how to play the system and are making sure they get units into their dealership to sell.

 

[ChasingCoral]

The 20,000 is for NA --- probably 15,000 for the US less about 4,000 GT’s.
Only about 11,000 Mach-E’s are available for the US.

A lot of reservation holders have never even seen the car and may be waiting for the demos before making the convert.
They should be at the dealers by the end of October.

Ford has given the Premium reservation holders until Dec 31 to convert, but the later you make the decision,
the greater chance of being bypassed to scheduled production at a later date.
Ford is not going to halt the assembly line and wait for your decision.

I doubt Ford will have any problem selling out this first year's run with or without a lease program.

Two things to add here:

If you want your Mach E before Spring 2021, convert now and then make your final decision when it comes. If you wait to ride in one in November or December, you probably won't get yours until Spring 2021 at the soonest.

Many dealers would rather have you order now, see it, and then sell it to you or someone else. It's their only way to get a non FCTP unit on their showroom floor before 2021. I think this is why many dealers are converting reservations without asking customers. That locks the cars into their stock.

 

[ChasingCoral]

Any word if Mach E production scheduling began August 20 as planned?

No word on that. We do know Ford is opening up some additional First Edition opportunities and some early line production for executives, etc. is running slowly now -- like 20/day. It's a slow warmup. They're still a month out from planned first production of FCTP units. Hopefully they'll hit their stride by then. However, we're getting information now that it production in 2020 may be well under the earlier 10,000 estimate.